灰度的费用赌博：对比特币的押注激增以抵消资金外流

Grayscale 的比特币现货 ETF 因其高额费用而受到批评，据信这是一种阻止持有者在比特币升值预期中套现的策略。自推出以来，该 ETF 的每日资金流出量已超过 140 亿美元，分析师推测 Grayscale 可能押注于比特币的增长以抵消资金流出，而不是降低费用来遏制资金流出。

Grayscale's High Fees: A Strategic Gamble to Retain Investors and Anticipate Bitcoin's Rise

灰度的高额费用：留住投资者并预测比特币上涨的战略赌博

Grayscale's decision to maintain elevated fees for its spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has sparked speculation that the asset manager is wagering on Bitcoin's continued price appreciation to offset outflows and preserve its revenue stream.

灰度决定维持其现货比特币（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）灰度比特币信托（GBTC）的较高费用，引发了人们的猜测，即该资产管理公司正在押注比特币价格持续上涨，以抵消资金外流并保留其收入溪流。

Outflows and Fee Concerns

资金流出和费用担忧

GBTC has experienced persistent daily outflows since its launch on January 11, with redemptions totaling over $14 billion as of March 25. Industry observers have attributed this exodus to GBTC's high fees, which stand at 1.5% per year, notably higher than the average 0.30% fee charged by other spot Bitcoin ETFs.

自 1 月 11 日推出以来，GBTC 每天都有持续的资金流出，截至 3 月 25 日，赎回总额超过 140 亿美元。行业观察人士将这种资金外流归因于 GBTC 的高额费用，每年 1.5%，明显高于平均水平 0.30%其他现货比特币 ETF 收取的费用。

Reasons for Maintaining High Fees

维持高额费用的原因

Market analysts have proposed two potential explanations for Grayscale's reluctance to lower its fees. Firstly, Grayscale may believe that its holders are unlikely to redeem their shares due to the "tax bill" they would incur upon selling GBTC. The asset manager's analysis suggests that holders are "stuck" because the potential tax liability outweighs the benefits of leaving the fund.

市场分析师对灰度不愿降低费用提出了两种可能的解释。首先，灰度可能认为其持有者不太可能赎回其股票，因为出售 GBTC 会产生“税单”。资产管理公司的分析表明，持有人“陷入困境”，因为潜在的纳税义务超过了离开基金的好处。

Secondly, Grayscale may be betting that Bitcoin's price will surge significantly in the coming years, to the extent that the revenue generated from the increased asset under management (AUM) will offset the outflows caused by the high fees.

其次，灰度可能押注比特币的价格将在未来几年大幅飙升，以至于管理资产（AUM）增加所产生的收入将抵消高额费用造成的资金外流。

Risks of the High-Fee Strategy

高收费策略的风险

While Grayscale's strategy may prove successful if Bitcoin's price rises as anticipated, it also carries potential risks. If Bitcoin's price falls, the high fees could exacerbate the outflows as investors seek lower-cost alternatives or decide to liquidate their positions.

虽然如果比特币价格按预期上涨，灰度的策略可能会成功，但它也存在潜在风险。如果比特币价格下跌，高额费用可能会加剧资金外流，因为投资者会寻求成本更低的替代品或决定清算其头寸。

Analysts' Perspectives

分析师的观点

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes that GBTC may experience ongoing outflows indefinitely, with the redemption process slowing down gradually over time. He notes that GBTC's revenue will remain stable if Bitcoin's price continues to rise, despite the outflows.

彭博 ETF 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 认为，GBTC 可能会无限期地经历持续流出，赎回过程随着时间的推移逐渐放缓。他指出，如果比特币价格继续上涨，尽管存在资金外流，GBTC 的收入仍将保持稳定。

However, United States spot Bitcoin ETFs were only approved after Grayscale's successful lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), compelling the regulator to consider Grayscale's proposal to convert GBTC into an ETF. Some analysts question why Grayscale would invest resources in this legal battle only to implement a strategy that could result in the fund's gradual decline.

然而，美国现货比特币 ETF 是在 Grayscale 成功起诉美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 后才获得批准，迫使监管机构考虑 Grayscale 将 GBTC 转换为 ETF 的提议。一些分析师质疑为什么灰度会在这场法律诉讼中投入资源只是为了实施可能导致该基金逐渐下跌的策略。

Speculation on Grayscale's Objectives

对灰度目标的猜测

One proposed explanation for Grayscale's actions is that the company foresaw that even if GBTC experiences outflows, the hype surrounding Bitcoin ETFs could drive up BTC's price enough to compensate for the losses and stabilize Grayscale's AUM.

对 Grayscale 行动的一种拟议解释是，该公司预见到，即使 GBTC 出现资金外流，围绕比特币 ETF 的炒作也可能会推高 BTC 的价格，足以弥补损失并稳定 Grayscale 的 AUM。

Another possible motive suggested by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart is Grayscale's desire to assist its bankrupt affiliate, crypto lender Genesis. Seyffart postulates that Grayscale's high fees may have been motivated by an attempt to facilitate Genesis's exit from positions related to GBTC shares used as collateral for loans made by Gemini Earn users.

彭博 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 提出的另一个可能动机是 Grayscale 希望协助其破产的附属机构加密货币贷款机构 Genesis。 Seyffart 推测，Grayscale 收取高额费用可能是为了帮助 Genesis 退出与 GBTC 股票相关的头寸，这些股票用作 Gemini Earn 用户贷款的抵押品。

Conclusion

结论

Grayscale's high fees for GBTC continue to be a subject of debate and speculation. While the asset manager's strategy may be driven by a belief in Bitcoin's future appreciation, it also carries potential risks. Whether Grayscale's gamble on high fees and an anticipated Bitcoin price surge will prove successful remains to be seen.

Grayscale 对 GBTC 的高额费用仍然是争论和猜测的话题。虽然资产管理公司的策略可能是出于对比特币未来升值的信念，但它也存在潜在风险。灰度对高额费用和预期比特币价格飙升的赌博是否会成功还有待观察。