一個人正在操縱全球金融市場。

隨著特朗普發起的全球關稅戰爭加劇，對美國衰退的市場期望也在上升。

The global financial market is being manipulated by one person.

一個人正在操縱全球金融市場。

As the global tariff war launched by Trump intensifies, market expectations for a US recession are also rising. On March 10, local time, the US stock market suffered a Black Monday, with the three major US stock indexes collectively plummeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq fell 4%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.

隨著特朗普發起的全球關稅戰爭加劇，對美國衰退的市場期望也在上升。 3月10日，當地時間，美國股票市場遭受了黑色週一，美國三大股票指數統稱下降。道瓊斯工業平均水平下降了2.08％，下跌了近900點；納斯達克次數下降了4％，標準普爾500指數下跌了2.7％。

Crypto market is also affected.

加密市場也受到影響。

The crypto market is no exception. Bitcoin fell below $77,000 to $76,560, a daily drop of more than 8%. ETH performed even worse, falling below $1,800 in a short period of time and hitting a low of around $1,760. In terms of price alone, it has returned to the level of four years ago.

加密市場也不例外。比特幣低於$ 77,000至76,560美元，每天下降超過8％。 ETH的表現更糟，在短時間內下跌至1,800美元以下，跌至1,760美元左右。僅憑價格，它已經恢復了四年前的水平。

However, as time goes by, the market seems to have started to pick up, with Bitcoin recovering to $82,000, correcting its decline, and ETH also rising by more than $1,900.

但是，隨著時間的流逝，市場似乎已經開始上漲，比特幣恢復到82,000美元，糾正了其下降，ETH也增加了1,900美元以上。

The external environment is volatile, and the market is full of doubts as to whether this wave of growth is a short-term rebound or a reversal signal.

外部環境是波動的，市場充滿了懷疑，即這種增長浪潮是短期反彈還是逆轉信號。

Trump is the reason for both success and failure. This is not only true in the crypto market, but also in the global financial market. To talk about the current round of crypto market decline, we must start with Trump.

特朗普是成功和失敗的原因。這不僅在加密市場，而且在全球金融市場中也是如此。要談論當前的加密貨幣市場下降，我們必須從特朗普開始。

I vaguely remember that in the months before the election, global financial markets were actively responding to the "Trump" trading theme. Investors were betting wildly on Trump's deregulation, tax cuts, immigration and other policies. U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin soared across the board, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once quickly rose by 60 basis points. Small-cap stocks responded significantly. On the second day after the election, the Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks in the United States, rose 5.8%, the largest single-day increase in nearly three years. From election day to before Trump's inauguration, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 6%, and in Trump's first month in office, the S&P 500 rose by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose by 2.2%.

我隱約記得，在大選前的幾個月中，全球金融市場正在積極回應“特朗普”交易主題。投資者大致押注特朗普的放鬆管制，減稅，移民和其他政策。美國股票，美元和比特幣全面飆升，美國十年的美國財政收益曾經迅速上升60個基點。小型股票的反應良好。大選後的第二天，代表美國小型股票的羅素2000指數上漲了5.8％，是近三年來最大的單日單天增長。從選舉日到特朗普就職典禮之前，美元指數上漲了約6％，在特朗普任職的第一個月中，標準普爾500指數上漲了2.5％，由技術股票主導的納斯達克指數上漲，增長了2.2％。

It can be seen that the market has strong optimistic expectations for Trump's inauguration, but the facts have proved that Trump has brought not only a big rise to the financial market, but also signals of economic recession.

可以看出，市場對特朗普的就職典禮具有強烈的樂觀期望，但事實證明，特朗普不僅為金融市場帶來了很大的增長，而且還帶來了經濟衰退的信號。

From the perspective of the United States, the indicators are complex. In February, non-farm employment increased by 151,000, slightly lower than market expectations; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared with 4% in the previous period. Unemployment is still controllable and can even be considered good, but inflation remains high. The final value of the expected one-year inflation rate in the United States in February was 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. From the perspective of the consumer market, the February consumer expectations survey data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that consumers' expectations for inflation in one year increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%; the proportion of households expecting a deterioration in their financial situation in the next year rose to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023.

從美國的角度來看，指標很複雜。 2月，非農業就業增加了151,000，略低於市場預期；失業率為4.1％，而前期為4％。失業仍然是可控制的，甚至可以被認為是好的，但通貨膨脹仍然很高。 2月美國預期的一年通貨膨脹率的最終價值為4.3％，是2023年11月以來最高的。從消費市場的角度來看，紐約聯邦儲備銀行發布的2月消費者預期數據調查數據表明，消費者對一年一年通貨膨脹的期望增加了0.1個百分點，達到3.1％；期望明年財務狀況惡化的家庭比例上升到27.4％，是2023年11月以來的最高水平。

In this context, many institutions have begun to predict a recession in the United States. The latest forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on the 6th shows that the U.S. GDP is expected to shrink by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year. The forecast model of JPMorgan Chase shows that as of the 4th, the probability of an economic recession in the United States has risen from 17% at the end of November last year to 31%.

在這種情況下，許多機構已經開始預測美國的衰退。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行在第六次發布的最新預測顯示，預計在今年第一季度，美國GDP預計將減少2.4％。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的預測模型表明，從去年11月底，美國經濟衰退的可能性從17％提高到31％。

The reason for this series of data has a lot to do with the policies adopted by Trump. After all, the president's recent way of making money is simple and too crude - tariffs. As early as February 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% tariff on American goods and a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, marking the beginning of the tariff war. But as Mexico and Canada both gave in, Trump waved his hand and said that the tariffs would be postponed for one month. Just when the world believed that there was still room for negotiation on tariffs, on February 27 local time, Trump announced on social media that the decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican products would take effect as scheduled on March 4, and

該系列數據的原因與特朗普通過的政策有很大關係。畢竟，總統最近賺錢的方式簡單又太粗糙 - 關稅。早在2月1日，特朗普就簽署了一項行政命令對美國商品徵收10％的關稅，並對墨西哥和加拿大徵收25％的關稅，這標誌著關稅戰爭的開始。但是，隨著墨西哥和加拿大都屈服，特朗普揮舞著他的手，並說關稅將被推遲一個月。就在世界上，當地時間2月27日，噹噹地時間時，全世界仍有對關稅進行談判的餘地，特朗普在社交媒體上宣布，對加拿大和墨西哥產品對加拿大和墨西哥產品徵收25％關稅的決定將於3月4日生效，並且