The global financial market is being manipulated by one person.

As the global tariff war launched by Trump intensifies, market expectations for a US recession are also rising.

The global financial market is being manipulated by one person.

As the global tariff war launched by Trump intensifies, market expectations for a US recession are also rising. On March 10, local time, the US stock market suffered a Black Monday, with the three major US stock indexes collectively plummeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq fell 4%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.

Crypto market is also affected.

The crypto market is no exception. Bitcoin fell below $77,000 to $76,560, a daily drop of more than 8%. ETH performed even worse, falling below $1,800 in a short period of time and hitting a low of around $1,760. In terms of price alone, it has returned to the level of four years ago.

However, as time goes by, the market seems to have started to pick up, with Bitcoin recovering to $82,000, correcting its decline, and ETH also rising by more than $1,900.

The external environment is volatile, and the market is full of doubts as to whether this wave of growth is a short-term rebound or a reversal signal.

Trump is the reason for both success and failure. This is not only true in the crypto market, but also in the global financial market. To talk about the current round of crypto market decline, we must start with Trump.

I vaguely remember that in the months before the election, global financial markets were actively responding to the "Trump" trading theme. Investors were betting wildly on Trump's deregulation, tax cuts, immigration and other policies. U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin soared across the board, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once quickly rose by 60 basis points. Small-cap stocks responded significantly. On the second day after the election, the Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks in the United States, rose 5.8%, the largest single-day increase in nearly three years. From election day to before Trump's inauguration, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 6%, and in Trump's first month in office, the S&P 500 rose by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose by 2.2%.

It can be seen that the market has strong optimistic expectations for Trump's inauguration, but the facts have proved that Trump has brought not only a big rise to the financial market, but also signals of economic recession.

From the perspective of the United States, the indicators are complex. In February, non-farm employment increased by 151,000, slightly lower than market expectations; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared with 4% in the previous period. Unemployment is still controllable and can even be considered good, but inflation remains high. The final value of the expected one-year inflation rate in the United States in February was 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. From the perspective of the consumer market, the February consumer expectations survey data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that consumers' expectations for inflation in one year increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%; the proportion of households expecting a deterioration in their financial situation in the next year rose to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023.

In this context, many institutions have begun to predict a recession in the United States. The latest forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on the 6th shows that the U.S. GDP is expected to shrink by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year. The forecast model of JPMorgan Chase shows that as of the 4th, the probability of an economic recession in the United States has risen from 17% at the end of November last year to 31%.

The reason for this series of data has a lot to do with the policies adopted by Trump. After all, the president's recent way of making money is simple and too crude - tariffs. As early as February 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% tariff on American goods and a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, marking the beginning of the tariff war. But as Mexico and Canada both gave in, Trump waved his hand and said that the tariffs would be postponed for one month. Just when the world believed that there was still room for negotiation on tariffs, on February 27 local time, Trump announced on social media that the decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican products would take effect as scheduled on March 4, and