一个人正在操纵全球金融市场。

随着特朗普发起的全球关税战争加剧，对美国衰退的市场期望也在上升。

The global financial market is being manipulated by one person.

一个人正在操纵全球金融市场。

As the global tariff war launched by Trump intensifies, market expectations for a US recession are also rising. On March 10, local time, the US stock market suffered a Black Monday, with the three major US stock indexes collectively plummeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq fell 4%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.

随着特朗普发起的全球关税战争加剧，对美国衰退的市场期望也在上升。 3月10日，当地时间，美国股票市场遭受了黑色周一，美国三大股票指数统称下降。道琼斯工业平均水平下降了2.08％，下跌了近900点；纳斯达克次数下降了4％，标准普尔500指数下跌了2.7％。

Crypto market is also affected.

加密市场也受到影响。

The crypto market is no exception. Bitcoin fell below $77,000 to $76,560, a daily drop of more than 8%. ETH performed even worse, falling below $1,800 in a short period of time and hitting a low of around $1,760. In terms of price alone, it has returned to the level of four years ago.

加密市场也不例外。比特币低于$ 77,000至76,560美元，每天下降超过8％。 ETH的表现更糟，在短时间内下跌至1,800美元以下，跌至1,760美元左右。仅凭价格，它已经恢复了四年前的水平。

However, as time goes by, the market seems to have started to pick up, with Bitcoin recovering to $82,000, correcting its decline, and ETH also rising by more than $1,900.

但是，随着时间的流逝，市场似乎已经开始上涨，比特币恢复到82,000美元，纠正了其下降，ETH也增加了1,900美元以上。

The external environment is volatile, and the market is full of doubts as to whether this wave of growth is a short-term rebound or a reversal signal.

外部环境是波动的，市场充满了怀疑，即这种增长浪潮是短期反弹还是逆转信号。

Trump is the reason for both success and failure. This is not only true in the crypto market, but also in the global financial market. To talk about the current round of crypto market decline, we must start with Trump.

特朗普是成功和失败的原因。这不仅在加密市场，而且在全球金融市场中也是如此。要谈论当前的加密货币市场下降，我们必须从特朗普开始。

I vaguely remember that in the months before the election, global financial markets were actively responding to the "Trump" trading theme. Investors were betting wildly on Trump's deregulation, tax cuts, immigration and other policies. U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin soared across the board, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once quickly rose by 60 basis points. Small-cap stocks responded significantly. On the second day after the election, the Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks in the United States, rose 5.8%, the largest single-day increase in nearly three years. From election day to before Trump's inauguration, the U.S. dollar index rose by about 6%, and in Trump's first month in office, the S&P 500 rose by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose by 2.2%.

我隐约记得，在大选前的几个月中，全球金融市场正在积极回应“特朗普”交易主题。投资者大致押注特朗普的放松管制，减税，移民和其他政策。美国股票，美元和比特币全面飙升，美国十年的美国财政收益曾经迅速上升60个基点。小型股票的反应良好。大选后的第二天，代表美国小型股票的罗素2000指数上涨了5.8％，是近三年来最大的单日单天增长。从选举日到特朗普就职典礼之前，美元指数上涨了约6％，在特朗普任职的第一个月中，标准普尔500指数上涨了2.5％，由技术股票主导的纳斯达克指数上涨，增长了2.2％。

It can be seen that the market has strong optimistic expectations for Trump's inauguration, but the facts have proved that Trump has brought not only a big rise to the financial market, but also signals of economic recession.

可以看出，市场对特朗普的就职典礼具有强烈的乐观期望，但事实证明，特朗普不仅为金融市场带来了很大的增长，而且还带来了经济衰退的信号。

From the perspective of the United States, the indicators are complex. In February, non-farm employment increased by 151,000, slightly lower than market expectations; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, compared with 4% in the previous period. Unemployment is still controllable and can even be considered good, but inflation remains high. The final value of the expected one-year inflation rate in the United States in February was 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. From the perspective of the consumer market, the February consumer expectations survey data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that consumers' expectations for inflation in one year increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%; the proportion of households expecting a deterioration in their financial situation in the next year rose to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023.

从美国的角度来看，指标很复杂。 2月，非农业就业增加了151,000，略低于市场预期；失业率为4.1％，而前期为4％。失业仍然是可控制的，甚至可以被认为是好的，但通货膨胀仍然很高。 2月美国预期的一年通货膨胀率的最终价值为4.3％，是2023年11月以来最高的。从消费市场的角度来看，纽约联邦储备银行发布的2月消费者预期数据调查数据表明，消费者对一年一年通货膨胀的期望增加了0.1个百分点，达到3.1％；期望明年财务状况恶化的家庭比例上升到27.4％，是2023年11月以来的最高水平。

In this context, many institutions have begun to predict a recession in the United States. The latest forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on the 6th shows that the U.S. GDP is expected to shrink by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year. The forecast model of JPMorgan Chase shows that as of the 4th, the probability of an economic recession in the United States has risen from 17% at the end of November last year to 31%.

在这种情况下，许多机构已经开始预测美国的衰退。亚特兰大联邦储备银行在第六次发布的最新预测显示，预计在今年第一季度，美国GDP预计将减少2.4％。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的预测模型表明，从去年11月底，美国经济衰退的可能性从17％提高到31％。

The reason for this series of data has a lot to do with the policies adopted by Trump. After all, the president's recent way of making money is simple and too crude - tariffs. As early as February 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% tariff on American goods and a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, marking the beginning of the tariff war. But as Mexico and Canada both gave in, Trump waved his hand and said that the tariffs would be postponed for one month. Just when the world believed that there was still room for negotiation on tariffs, on February 27 local time, Trump announced on social media that the decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican products would take effect as scheduled on March 4, and

该系列数据的原因与特朗普通过的政策有很大关系。毕竟，总统最近赚钱的方式简单又太粗糙 - 关税。早在2月1日，特朗普就签署了一项行政命令对美国商品征收10％的关税，并对墨西哥和加拿大征收25％的关税，这标志着关税战争的开始。但是，随着墨西哥和加拿大都屈服，特朗普挥舞着他的手，并说关税将被推迟一个月。就在世界上，当地时间2月27日，当当地时间时，全世界仍有对关税进行谈判的余地，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，对加拿大和墨西哥产品对加拿大和墨西哥产品征收25％关税的决定将于3月4日生效，并且