GameStop Corp.（NYSE：GME）股價下跌25％，消耗了近30億美元的市場價值

GameStop Corp.（NYSE：GME）昨天的股價下跌了25％，消除了近30億美元的市場價值。

GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME) shares experienced a steep 25% decline on Friday, wiping out nearly $3 billion in market capitalization. The downturn follows a brief 16% rally on March 26, sparked by the company’s announcement to establish a Bitcoin treasury reserve.

GameStop Corp（NYSE：GME）週五股價下降了25％，從而消除了近30億美元的市值。在3月26日，該公司宣佈建立比特幣國庫券的宣布引發的衰退之後，這次衰退是在3月26日進行簡短的16％集會。

Initially seen as a bullish move by investors, the news quickly soured as the market responded to an apparent instance of hedging-related selling pressure, setting the stage for a sharp reversal.

該消息最初被投資者視為看漲的舉動，隨著市場對與衝相關的銷售壓力的明顯實例，這一消息迅速酸化，為急劇的逆轉奠定了基礎。

GameStop’s Bitcoin Gamble Sparks Volatility

GameStop的比特幣賭博火花波動

GameStop’s decision to invest in Bitcoin and raise $1.3 billion through convertible senior notes drew immediate comparisons to MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and placed the retailer among corporations like Metaplanet that are adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

GameStop決定通過可轉換的高級票據來投資比特幣並籌集13億美元，從而立即與MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）進行了比較，並將零售商置於像Metaplanet這樣的公司中，這些公司採用比特幣作為國債資產。

At first glance, the move seemed promising, pushing the stock into double-digit gains. However, the stock quickly faced heavy selling pressure, leading to a substantial decline.

乍一看，此舉似乎很有希望，將股票推向了兩位數的收益。但是，該股票迅速面臨著巨大的銷售壓力，導致大幅下降。

A closer look reveals that the sell-off was largely driven by a trading strategy known as convertible arbitrage, which created artificial downward pressure on the stock.

仔細觀察表明，拋售在很大程度上是由一種稱為可轉換套利的交易策略驅動的，該策略對股票造成了人為的向下壓力。

The Convertible Arbitrage Effect

可轉換套利效果

According to financial analyst Han Akamatsu, the rapid decline in GameStop’s stock can be attributed to institutional investors engaging in convertible arbitrage.

據財務分析師漢·阿卡馬蘇（Han Akamatsu）稱，GameStop股票的迅速下降可以歸因於從事可轉換套利的機構投資者。

This strategy, previously observed during MicroStrategy’s convertible note issuances, involves large players buying the convertible bonds and simultaneously shorting the stock to hedge their positions. In turn, this creates artificial short-selling pressure, causing the stock price to drop.

以前在Microstrategy的可轉換票據發行期間觀察到的策略涉及大型玩家購買可轉換債券，並同時縮短股票以對沖其頭寸。反過來，這造成了人工賣空壓力，導致股價下跌。

Akamatsu explained that a similar pattern emerged in 2021 when MicroStrategy issued $1.05 billion in 0% convertible notes. After the announcement, MSTR shares initially dipped due to the convertible arbitrage but later soared as Bitcoin rose, setting the stage for a substantial short squeeze.

Akamatsu解釋說，當MicroStrategy發行10.5億美元的0％可轉換票據時，類似的模式出現了。宣布後，MSTR股票最初由於可轉換套利而最初下跌，但後來隨著比特幣Rose飆升，為大量的短暫擠壓奠定了基礎。

He believes GameStop could follow the same blueprint:

他認為GameStop可以遵循同樣的藍圖：

Akamatsu stated that the pattern becomes clear when examining the timing of the convertible note issuance and the subsequent market reaction.

Akamatsu表示，在檢查可轉換票據發行的時間和隨後的市場反應時，該模式變得清晰。

Risk and Reward: Investor Concerns Mount

風險和回報：投資者關注

Despite the potential for a future squeeze, some investors are critical of GameStop’s board for what appears to be self-inflicted selling pressure.

儘管有潛力進行未來的擠壓，但一些投資者還是批評GameStop的董事會，因為這似乎是自我造成的銷售壓力。

One X user questioned Ryan Cohen’s decision-making, highlighting the massive drop in market value: “Nearly $3 billion in market value was wiped out today. RC should really ask himself if it is worth it or if he miscalculated. The hedge is supposed to mitigate risk but has instead created much more.”

一位X用戶質疑瑞安·科恩（Ryan Cohen）的決策，強調了市場價值的巨大下降：“今天削減了近30億美元的市場價值。RC應該真正問自己是否值得或是否誤解了他。該樹籬本來應該減輕風險，但造成了更多的風險。”

However, Akamatsu stood by his analysis, suggesting that the current volatility is part of the plan and that long-term investors could benefit if the stock follows MicroStrategy’s trajectory.

但是，Akamatsu堅持他的分析，表明當前的波動率是該計劃的一部分，如果股票遵循MicroStrategy的軌跡，長期投資者可以從中受益。

Technical Outlook and Potential Squeeze

技術前景和潛在的擠壓

Akamatsu also noted that volume-weighted average price (VWAP) pricing will influence the convertible notes’ conversion price. Institutional players may aim to keep GME’s stock price low during the VWAP pricing window (from 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM EDT on the pricing day) to secure a more favorable conversion price.

Akamatsu還指出，體積加權的平均價格（VWAP）定價將影響可轉換票據的轉換價格。機構參與者的目標可能是在VWAP定價窗口（從1:00 pm到美國東部時間下午4:00 PM）保持GME的股票價格較低，以確保更有利的轉換價格。

In a separate post, he compared GameStop’s current setup to Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH), which saw a massive breakout after a similar pattern. He referenced chart analyst Thomas Bulkowski’s wedge pattern theory, suggesting that if GME retraces after its recent breakout, it could present a prime buying opportunity.

在另一篇文章中，他將GameStop當前的設置與Celsius Holdings（NASDAQ：CELH）進行了比較，後者在類似的模式之後看到了大規模的突破。他引用了圖表分析師托馬斯·布爾科夫斯基（Thomas Bulkowski）的楔形模式理論，這表明，如果GME在最近的突破後回顧，它可能會帶來主要的購買機會。

While GameStop’s Bitcoin strategy has sparked short-term volatility, analysts believe it could lead to a highly volatile squeeze scenario if Bitcoin’s price surges or if GameStop’s stock rallies unexpectedly.

儘管GameStop的比特幣策略引發了短期波動，但分析師認為，如果比特幣的價格上漲或GameStop的股票出乎意料地集會，則可能導致高度波動的擠壓場景。

For now, the stock faces significant downside pressure. With convertible arbitrage exerting its influence and keeping the price down, GME could continue to weaken in the short term.

目前，股票面臨著巨大的下行壓力。隨著可轉換套利的影響並保持價格降低，GME在短期內可能會繼續削弱。

However, if Bitcoin experiences a substantial rally, swiftly unwinding short positions in GameStop’s stock could propel it into a rapid surge.

但是，如果比特幣經歷大量的集會，迅速在GameStop的股票中迅速提出了短期職位，則可能會迅速增加。