GameStop Corp.（NYSE：GME）股价下跌25％，消耗了近30亿美元的市场价值

GameStop Corp.（NYSE：GME）昨天的股价下跌了25％，消除了近30亿美元的市场价值。

GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME) shares experienced a steep 25% decline on Friday, wiping out nearly $3 billion in market capitalization. The downturn follows a brief 16% rally on March 26, sparked by the company’s announcement to establish a Bitcoin treasury reserve.

GameStop Corp（NYSE：GME）周五股价下降了25％，从而消除了近30亿美元的市值。在3月26日，该公司宣布建立比特币国库券的宣布引发的衰退之后，这次衰退是在3月26日进行简短的16％集会。

Initially seen as a bullish move by investors, the news quickly soured as the market responded to an apparent instance of hedging-related selling pressure, setting the stage for a sharp reversal.

该消息最初被投资者视为看涨的举动，随着市场对与冲相关的销售压力的明显实例，这一消息迅速酸化，为急剧的逆转奠定了基础。

GameStop’s Bitcoin Gamble Sparks Volatility

GameStop的比特币赌博火花波动

GameStop’s decision to invest in Bitcoin and raise $1.3 billion through convertible senior notes drew immediate comparisons to MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and placed the retailer among corporations like Metaplanet that are adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

GameStop决定通过可转换的高级票据来投资比特币并筹集13亿美元，从而立即与MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）进行了比较，并将零售商置于像Metaplanet这样的公司中，这些公司采用比特币作为国债资产。

At first glance, the move seemed promising, pushing the stock into double-digit gains. However, the stock quickly faced heavy selling pressure, leading to a substantial decline.

乍一看，此举似乎很有希望，将股票推向了两位数的收益。但是，该股票迅速面临着巨大的销售压力，导致大幅下降。

A closer look reveals that the sell-off was largely driven by a trading strategy known as convertible arbitrage, which created artificial downward pressure on the stock.

仔细观察表明，抛售在很大程度上是由一种称为可转换套利的交易策略驱动的，该策略对股票造成了人为的向下压力。

The Convertible Arbitrage Effect

可转换套利效果

According to financial analyst Han Akamatsu, the rapid decline in GameStop’s stock can be attributed to institutional investors engaging in convertible arbitrage.

据财务分析师汉·阿卡马苏（Han Akamatsu）称，GameStop股票的迅速下降可以归因于从事可转换套利的机构投资者。

This strategy, previously observed during MicroStrategy’s convertible note issuances, involves large players buying the convertible bonds and simultaneously shorting the stock to hedge their positions. In turn, this creates artificial short-selling pressure, causing the stock price to drop.

以前在Microstrategy的可转换票据发行期间观察到的策略涉及大型玩家购买可转换债券，并同时缩短股票以对冲其头寸。反过来，这造成了人工卖空压力，导致股价下跌。

Akamatsu explained that a similar pattern emerged in 2021 when MicroStrategy issued $1.05 billion in 0% convertible notes. After the announcement, MSTR shares initially dipped due to the convertible arbitrage but later soared as Bitcoin rose, setting the stage for a substantial short squeeze.

Akamatsu解释说，当MicroStrategy发行10.5亿美元的0％可转换票据时，类似的模式出现了。宣布后，MSTR股票最初由于可转换套利而最初下跌，但后来随着比特币Rose飙升，为大量的短暂挤压奠定了基础。

He believes GameStop could follow the same blueprint:

他认为GameStop可以遵循同样的蓝图：

Akamatsu stated that the pattern becomes clear when examining the timing of the convertible note issuance and the subsequent market reaction.

Akamatsu表示，在检查可转换票据发行的时间和随后的市场反应时，该模式变得清晰。

Risk and Reward: Investor Concerns Mount

风险和回报：投资者关注

Despite the potential for a future squeeze, some investors are critical of GameStop’s board for what appears to be self-inflicted selling pressure.

尽管有潜力进行未来的挤压，但一些投资者还是批评GameStop的董事会，因为这似乎是自我造成的销售压力。

One X user questioned Ryan Cohen’s decision-making, highlighting the massive drop in market value: “Nearly $3 billion in market value was wiped out today. RC should really ask himself if it is worth it or if he miscalculated. The hedge is supposed to mitigate risk but has instead created much more.”

一位X用户质疑瑞安·科恩（Ryan Cohen）的决策，强调了市场价值的巨大下降：“今天削减了近30亿美元的市场价值。RC应该真正问自己是否值得或是否误解了他。该树篱本来应该减轻风险，但造成了更多的风险。”

However, Akamatsu stood by his analysis, suggesting that the current volatility is part of the plan and that long-term investors could benefit if the stock follows MicroStrategy’s trajectory.

但是，Akamatsu坚持他的分析，表明当前的波动率是该计划的一部分，如果股票遵循MicroStrategy的轨迹，长期投资者可以从中受益。

Technical Outlook and Potential Squeeze

技术前景和潜在的挤压

Akamatsu also noted that volume-weighted average price (VWAP) pricing will influence the convertible notes’ conversion price. Institutional players may aim to keep GME’s stock price low during the VWAP pricing window (from 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM EDT on the pricing day) to secure a more favorable conversion price.

Akamatsu还指出，体积加权的平均价格（VWAP）定价将影响可转换票据的转换价格。机构参与者的目标可能是在VWAP定价窗口（从1:00 pm到美国东部时间下午4:00 PM）保持GME的股票价格较低，以确保更有利的转换价格。

In a separate post, he compared GameStop’s current setup to Celsius Holdings (NASDAQ:CELH), which saw a massive breakout after a similar pattern. He referenced chart analyst Thomas Bulkowski’s wedge pattern theory, suggesting that if GME retraces after its recent breakout, it could present a prime buying opportunity.

在另一篇文章中，他将GameStop当前的设置与Celsius Holdings（NASDAQ：CELH）进行了比较，后者在类似的模式之后看到了大规模的突破。他引用了图表分析师托马斯·布尔科夫斯基（Thomas Bulkowski）的楔形模式理论，这表明，如果GME在最近的突破后回顾，它可能会带来主要的购买机会。

While GameStop’s Bitcoin strategy has sparked short-term volatility, analysts believe it could lead to a highly volatile squeeze scenario if Bitcoin’s price surges or if GameStop’s stock rallies unexpectedly.

尽管GameStop的比特币策略引发了短期波动，但分析师认为，如果比特币的价格上涨或GameStop的股票出乎意料地集会，则可能导致高度波动的挤压场景。

For now, the stock faces significant downside pressure. With convertible arbitrage exerting its influence and keeping the price down, GME could continue to weaken in the short term.

目前，股票面临着巨大的下行压力。随着可转换套利的影响并保持价格降低，GME在短期内可能会继续削弱。

However, if Bitcoin experiences a substantial rally, swiftly unwinding short positions in GameStop’s stock could propel it into a rapid surge.

但是，如果比特币经历大量的集会，迅速在GameStop的股票中迅速提出了短期职位，则可能会迅速增加。