富達對比特幣持中性態度，但看漲的鏈上指標顯示近期會上漲

由於資產的公平估值和強勁的鏈上指標，富達數位資產對比特幣（BTC）保持「中性」前景。儘管最近價格回升至 66,000 美元以上，但該公司將拋售壓力歸因於 BTC 不再「便宜」。算力標準表明，比特幣目前以「公允價值」交易，導致富達將其中期前景從「積極」修改為「中性」。

Fidelity Reassesses Bitcoin Outlook, Citing Fair Market Value and Positive On-Chain Indicators

富達重新評估比特幣前景，引用公平市場價值和積極的鏈上指標

Following a significant price rally in the first quarter of 2024, Fidelity Digital Assets has revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin from "positive" to "neutral." This adjustment reflects the current market dynamics and the firm's analysis of on-chain data.

繼 2024 年第一季價格大幅上漲後，富達數位資產 (Fidelity Digital Assets) 將比特幣的中期前景從「積極」調整為「中性」。此次調整反映了當前的市場動態以及公司對鏈上數據的分析。

Market Conditions Drive Neutral Outlook

市場狀況推動中性前景

Fidelity's decision to adopt a neutral stance stems from the belief that Bitcoin is currently trading at "fair value." The firm utilizes the "Hashrate Yardstick" metric, which mirrors the price-to-earnings ratio used in traditional stock markets, to evaluate Bitcoin's undervaluation. Throughout the first quarter, the Yardstick remained within a narrow range, indicating that Bitcoin was not undervalued.

富達決定採取中立立場，源自於相信比特幣目前以「公允價值」交易。該公司利用「算力標尺」指標來評估比特幣的低估情況，該指標反映了傳統股票市場中使用的本益比。整個第一季度，該指標一直維持在窄幅區間內，顯示比特幣並未被低估。

As a result, Fidelity suggests that the recent selling pressure on Bitcoin is attributable to the fact that it is no longer considered "cheap." Furthermore, the firm points to the increased sell pressure from long-term holders and the high percentage of addresses currently showing a profit, which could incentivize further selling.

因此，富達認為，比特幣最近的拋售壓力歸因於它不再被認為「便宜」。此外，該公司指出，長期持有者的拋售壓力增加，以及目前獲利的地址比例很高，這可能會刺激進一步拋售。

On-Chain Indicators Provide Positive Outlook

鏈上指標提供正面的前景

Despite the neutral medium-term outlook, Fidelity maintains a positive near-term view for Bitcoin. The firm highlights several on-chain indicators that suggest bullish momentum for the asset class.

儘管中期前景為中性，富達仍對比特幣保持積極的近期看法。該公司強調了幾個顯示該資產類別看漲勢頭的鏈上指標。

Firstly, Bitcoin price levels have consistently traded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. Secondly, there has been a notable increase in accumulation by smaller investors, as evidenced by the growth in the number of addresses holding $1,000 worth of BTC. This increase has reached a new all-time high.

首先，比特幣價格水準一直高於 50 日和 200 日移動均線，顯示持續看漲趨勢。其次，小投資者的累積顯著增加，持有價值 1,000 美元 BTC 的地址數量的增長就證明了這一點。這項增幅創下了歷史新高。

Accumulation, Self-Custody Reduce Selling Pressure

累積、自我託管減少拋售壓力

Fidelity also observes a decrease in exchange balances, suggesting that more investors are opting for self-custody of their Bitcoin holdings. This reduction in exchange balances diminishes the potential for selling pressure.

富達也觀察到外匯餘額減少，這表明更多投資者選擇自行託管其持有的比特幣。外匯餘額的減少減少了潛在的拋售壓力。

Historical Precedent and Investment Implications

歷史先例及投資啟示

Commenting on the market cycle, Fidelity's director of research, Chris Kuiper, noted that the current market position appears to be in a "midpoint or intermediate stage." Historically, significant price increases have occurred during the latter phase of the cycle.

富達研究總監 Chris Kuiper 在評論市場週期時指出，目前的市場狀況似乎處於「中點或中間階段」。從歷史上看，價格大幅上漲發生在周期的後階段。

Kuiper emphasizes that Bitcoin is still far from its historical peak highs, indicating that there is potential for continued price appreciation. However, he also cautions that investors should be aware of the potential for heightened volatility during these market phases.

Kuiper強調，比特幣距離歷史高峰還很遠，顯示價格還有持續升值的潛力。不過，他也警告說，投資人應該意識到這些市場階段波動性加劇的可能性。

Conclusion

結論

Fidelity's revised outlook for Bitcoin reflects the current market conditions and the firm's analysis of on-chain data. While the medium-term outlook is now neutral, Fidelity maintains a positive near-term view based on bullish technical indicators and increased accumulation by smaller investors. The firm advises investors to be mindful of the historical market cycle and the potential for increased volatility in the latter stages of the cycle.

富達修正後的比特幣前景反映了當前的市場狀況以及該公司對鏈上數據的分析。雖然中期前景目前呈中性，但富達基於看漲的技術指標和中小投資者增持的情況，維持了積極的近期看法。該公司建議投資人留意歷史市場週期以及週期後期波動性增加的可能性。