富达对比特币持中性态度，但看涨的链上指标表明近期会上涨

由于资产的公平估值和强劲的链上指标，富达数字资产对比特币（BTC）保持“中性”前景。尽管最近价格回升至 66,000 美元以上，但该公司将抛售压力归因于 BTC 不再“便宜”。算力标准表明，比特币目前以“公允价值”交易，导致富达将其中期前景从“积极”修改为“中性”。

Fidelity Reassesses Bitcoin Outlook, Citing Fair Market Value and Positive On-Chain Indicators

富达重新评估比特币前景，引用公平市场价值和积极的链上指标

Following a significant price rally in the first quarter of 2024, Fidelity Digital Assets has revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin from "positive" to "neutral." This adjustment reflects the current market dynamics and the firm's analysis of on-chain data.

继 2024 年第一季度价格大幅上涨后，富达数字资产 (Fidelity Digital Assets) 将比特币的中期前景从“积极”调整为“中性”。此次调整反映了当前的市场动态以及公司对链上数据的分析。

Market Conditions Drive Neutral Outlook

市场状况推动中性前景

Fidelity's decision to adopt a neutral stance stems from the belief that Bitcoin is currently trading at "fair value." The firm utilizes the "Hashrate Yardstick" metric, which mirrors the price-to-earnings ratio used in traditional stock markets, to evaluate Bitcoin's undervaluation. Throughout the first quarter, the Yardstick remained within a narrow range, indicating that Bitcoin was not undervalued.

富达决定采取中立立场，源于相信比特币目前以“公允价值”交易。该公司利用“算力标尺”指标来评估比特币的低估情况，该指标反映了传统股票市场中使用的市盈率。整个第一季度，该指标一直维持在窄幅区间内，表明比特币并未被低估。

As a result, Fidelity suggests that the recent selling pressure on Bitcoin is attributable to the fact that it is no longer considered "cheap." Furthermore, the firm points to the increased sell pressure from long-term holders and the high percentage of addresses currently showing a profit, which could incentivize further selling.

因此，富达认为，比特币最近的抛售压力归因于它不再被认为“便宜”。此外，该公司指出，长期持有者的抛售压力增加，以及目前盈利的地址比例很高，这可能会刺激进一步抛售。

On-Chain Indicators Provide Positive Outlook

链上指标提供积极的前景

Despite the neutral medium-term outlook, Fidelity maintains a positive near-term view for Bitcoin. The firm highlights several on-chain indicators that suggest bullish momentum for the asset class.

尽管中期前景为中性，富达仍对比特币保持积极的近期看法。该公司强调了几个表明该资产类别看涨势头的链上指标。

Firstly, Bitcoin price levels have consistently traded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. Secondly, there has been a notable increase in accumulation by smaller investors, as evidenced by the growth in the number of addresses holding $1,000 worth of BTC. This increase has reached a new all-time high.

首先，比特币价格水平一直高于 50 日和 200 日移动均线，表明持续看涨趋势。其次，小投资者的积累显着增加，持有价值 1,000 美元 BTC 的地址数量的增长就证明了这一点。这一增幅创下了历史新高。

Accumulation, Self-Custody Reduce Selling Pressure

积累、自我托管减少抛售压力

Fidelity also observes a decrease in exchange balances, suggesting that more investors are opting for self-custody of their Bitcoin holdings. This reduction in exchange balances diminishes the potential for selling pressure.

富达还观察到外汇余额减少，这表明更多投资者选择自行托管其持有的比特币。外汇余额的减少减少了潜在的抛售压力。

Historical Precedent and Investment Implications

历史先例及投资启示

Commenting on the market cycle, Fidelity's director of research, Chris Kuiper, noted that the current market position appears to be in a "midpoint or intermediate stage." Historically, significant price increases have occurred during the latter phase of the cycle.

富达研究总监 Chris Kuiper 在评论市场周期时指出，目前的市场状况似乎处于“中点或中间阶段”。从历史上看，价格大幅上涨发生在周期的后阶段。

Kuiper emphasizes that Bitcoin is still far from its historical peak highs, indicating that there is potential for continued price appreciation. However, he also cautions that investors should be aware of the potential for heightened volatility during these market phases.

Kuiper强调，比特币距离历史峰值还很远，表明价格还有持续升值的潜力。不过，他也警告说，投资者应该意识到这些市场阶段波动性加剧的可能性。

Conclusion

结论

Fidelity's revised outlook for Bitcoin reflects the current market conditions and the firm's analysis of on-chain data. While the medium-term outlook is now neutral, Fidelity maintains a positive near-term view based on bullish technical indicators and increased accumulation by smaller investors. The firm advises investors to be mindful of the historical market cycle and the potential for increased volatility in the latter stages of the cycle.

富达修正后的比特币前景反映了当前的市场状况以及该公司对链上数据的分析。虽然中期前景目前呈中性，但富达基于看涨的技术指标和中小投资者增持的情况，维持了积极的近期看法。该公司建议投资者留意历史市场周期以及周期后期波动性增加的可能性。