市場週期的法幣階段

David Einhorn 在他最新的 2024 年第四季度信中討論了 Fartcoin 的崛起，這是一種儘管缺乏內在效用但價值飆升的加密貨幣。

David Einhorn's latest Q4 2024 letter discusses the rise of Fartcoin, a cryptocurrency that surged in value despite lacking any intrinsic utility. He compares this phenomenon to the past rise of Dogecoin, another cryptocurrency that gained value largely through hype and trading interest.

David Einhorn 在 2024 年第四季的最新信中討論了 Fartcoin 的崛起，這是一種儘管缺乏任何內在效用但價值飆升的加密貨幣。他將這種現象與狗狗幣過去的崛起進行了比較，狗狗幣是另一種主要透過炒作和交易興趣獲得價值的加密貨幣。

Einhorn argues that cryptocurrencies closely resemble collectibles like art or baseball cards, which are valuable only because people agree that they are. While he acknowledges the appeal of speculating on such assets, he personally prefers tangible assets like art over crypto.

艾因霍恩認為，加密貨幣與藝術品或棒球卡等收藏品非常相似，這些收藏品之所以有價值，只是因為人們認同它們的價值。雖然他承認投機此類資產的吸引力，但他個人更喜歡藝術品等有形資產而不是加密貨幣。

Finally, he suggests that while cryptocurrencies may hold some market value, they lack any fundamental backing and can be easily replicated, making their long-term viability questionable.

最後，他認為，雖然加密貨幣可能具有一定的市場價值，但它們缺乏任何基本面支持，並且很容易被複製，使其長期生存能力值得懷疑。

Here's an excerpt from the letter:

以下是這封信的摘錄：

We have reached the Fartcoin stage of the market cycle. For those unfamiliar, Fartcoin is a cryptocurrency that was created late last year and appreciated from a nominal value to over a billion dollars.

我們已經到達了市場週期的 Fartcoin 階段。對於那些不熟悉的人來說，Fartcoin 是一種加密貨幣，於去年年底創建，並從名義價值升值至超過 10 億美元。

Like other cryptocurrencies, it is tradable 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Other than trading and speculation, it serves no other obvious purpose and fulfills no need that is not served elsewhere.

與其他加密貨幣一樣，它可以每週 7 天、每天 24 小時進行交易。除了交易和投機之外，它沒有其他明顯的目的，也沒有滿足其他地方無法滿足的需求。

Lest you think it’s likely to go to zero (it could be the Pets.com of the cycle), Fartcoin is only the latest memecoin.

為了避免您認為它可能會歸零（可能是周期中的 Pets.com），Fartcoin 只是最新的 memecoin。

There have been other memecoins before. Something called Dogecoin, with a Shiba Inu dog logo, was created for the same reason (to mock cryptocurrencies and for speculative trading) more than a decade ago, and it is currently worth about $55 billion.

之前還有其他模因幣。十多年前，出於同樣的原因（為了模擬加密貨幣和投機交易）創建了帶有柴犬標誌的狗狗幣，目前價值約 550 億美元。

Were it a stock, it would rank around #180 in the S&P 500, about the size of Travelers and Johnson Controls.

如果它是一隻股票，它將在標準普爾 500 指數中排名第 180 名左右，與旅行者和江森自控的規模相當。

We have thought quite a bit about cryptocurrencies. For the most part, they resemble collectibles. Items such as art, postage stamps, rare coins, and baseball cards are valuable because people like to collect them.

我們對加密貨幣進行了很多思考。在大多數情況下，它們類似於收藏品。藝術品、郵票、稀有硬幣和棒球卡等物品都很有價值，因為人們喜歡收集它們。

The intrinsic value of a Jackson Pollock is very low (paint plus canvas), but enough people agree that Pollock’s technique of pouring the paint on the canvas was innovative, rare, and valuable enough that his works are worth millions.

傑克遜·波洛克（Jackson Pollock）的內在價值非常低（顏料加畫布），但足夠多的人同意波洛克將顏料倒在畫布上的技術是創新的、稀有的和有價值的，以至於他的作品價值數百萬美元。

Similarly, Fartcoin is worth whatever the market says it is. It isn’t backed by anything and has no intrinsic value. It doesn’t appear to be difficult to create new types of memecoins.

同樣，無論市場怎麼說，Fartcoin 的價值都是如此。它沒有任何支撐，也沒有內在價值。創建新型模因幣似乎並不困難。

We have no problem with people taking a punt in crypto, Aaron Judge rookie cards, or roulette for that matter. If people find it fun and think they can make money trading it, the more power to them.

我們對人們在加密貨幣、Aaron Judge 新秀卡或輪盤賭方面進行投注沒有任何問題。如果人們覺得它很有趣並且認為他們可以透過交易賺錢，那麼他們的權力就越大。

We’d rather have a Pollock than a Fartcoin, but that’s just us.

我們寧願擁有波洛克也不願擁有屁幣，但這就是我們。

You can read the full letter here:

您可以在這裡閱讀全文：

David Einhorn – Q4 2024 Greenlight Capital Letter

David Einhorn – 2024 年第 4 季綠光大寫字母

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