市场周期的法币阶段

David Einhorn 在他最新的 2024 年第四季度信中讨论了 Fartcoin 的崛起，这是一种尽管缺乏内在效用但价值飙升的加密货币。

David Einhorn's latest Q4 2024 letter discusses the rise of Fartcoin, a cryptocurrency that surged in value despite lacking any intrinsic utility. He compares this phenomenon to the past rise of Dogecoin, another cryptocurrency that gained value largely through hype and trading interest.

David Einhorn 在 2024 年第四季度的最新信中讨论了 Fartcoin 的崛起，这是一种尽管缺乏任何内在效用但价值飙升的加密货币。他将这种现象与狗狗币过去的崛起进行了比较，狗狗币是另一种主要通过炒作和交易兴趣获得价值的加密货币。

Einhorn argues that cryptocurrencies closely resemble collectibles like art or baseball cards, which are valuable only because people agree that they are. While he acknowledges the appeal of speculating on such assets, he personally prefers tangible assets like art over crypto.

艾因霍恩认为，加密货币与艺术品或棒球卡等收藏品非常相似，这些收藏品之所以有价值，只是因为人们认同它们的价值。虽然他承认投机此类资产的吸引力，但他个人更喜欢艺术品等有形资产而不是加密货币。

Finally, he suggests that while cryptocurrencies may hold some market value, they lack any fundamental backing and can be easily replicated, making their long-term viability questionable.

最后，他认为，虽然加密货币可能具有一定的市场价值，但它们缺乏任何基本面支持，并且很容易被复制，使其长期生存能力值得怀疑。

Here's an excerpt from the letter:

以下是这封信的摘录：

We have reached the Fartcoin stage of the market cycle. For those unfamiliar, Fartcoin is a cryptocurrency that was created late last year and appreciated from a nominal value to over a billion dollars.

我们已经到达了市场周期的 Fartcoin 阶段。对于那些不熟悉的人来说，Fartcoin 是一种加密货币，于去年年底创建，并从名义价值升值至超过 10 亿美元。

Like other cryptocurrencies, it is tradable 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Other than trading and speculation, it serves no other obvious purpose and fulfills no need that is not served elsewhere.

与其他加密货币一样，它可以每周 7 天、每天 24 小时进行交易。除了交易和投机之外，它没有其他明显的目的，也没有满足其他地方无法满足的需求。

Lest you think it’s likely to go to zero (it could be the Pets.com of the cycle), Fartcoin is only the latest memecoin.

为了避免您认为它可能会归零（可能是周期中的 Pets.com），Fartcoin 只是最新的 memecoin。

There have been other memecoins before. Something called Dogecoin, with a Shiba Inu dog logo, was created for the same reason (to mock cryptocurrencies and for speculative trading) more than a decade ago, and it is currently worth about $55 billion.

之前还有其他模因币。十多年前，出于同样的原因（为了模拟加密货币和投机交易）创建了带有柴犬标志的狗狗币，目前价值约 550 亿美元。

Were it a stock, it would rank around #180 in the S&P 500, about the size of Travelers and Johnson Controls.

如果它是一只股票，它将在标准普尔 500 指数中排名第 180 名左右，与旅行者和江森自控的规模相当。

We have thought quite a bit about cryptocurrencies. For the most part, they resemble collectibles. Items such as art, postage stamps, rare coins, and baseball cards are valuable because people like to collect them.

我们对加密货币进行了很多思考。在大多数情况下，它们类似于收藏品。艺术品、邮票、稀有硬币和棒球卡等物品都很有价值，因为人们喜欢收集它们。

The intrinsic value of a Jackson Pollock is very low (paint plus canvas), but enough people agree that Pollock’s technique of pouring the paint on the canvas was innovative, rare, and valuable enough that his works are worth millions.

杰克逊·波洛克（Jackson Pollock）的内在价值非常低（颜料加画布），但足够多的人同意波洛克将颜料倒在画布上的技术是创新的、稀有的和有价值的，以至于他的作品价值数百万美元。

Similarly, Fartcoin is worth whatever the market says it is. It isn’t backed by anything and has no intrinsic value. It doesn’t appear to be difficult to create new types of memecoins.

同样，无论市场怎么说，Fartcoin 的价值都是如此。它没有任何支撑，也没有内在价值。创建新型模因币似乎并不困难。

We have no problem with people taking a punt in crypto, Aaron Judge rookie cards, or roulette for that matter. If people find it fun and think they can make money trading it, the more power to them.

我们对人们在加密货币、Aaron Judge 新秀卡或轮盘赌方面进行投注没有任何问题。如果人们觉得它很有趣并且认为他们可以通过交易赚钱，那么他们的权力就越大。

We’d rather have a Pollock than a Fartcoin, but that’s just us.

我们宁愿拥有波洛克也不愿拥有屁币，但这就是我们。

You can read the full letter here:

您可以在这里阅读全文：

David Einhorn – Q4 2024 Greenlight Capital Letter

David Einhorn – 2024 年第 4 季度绿光大写字母

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