探索加密項目的估值模型

加密已成為金融技術領域中最具活力，最有前途的部門之一。隨著許多機構資金的進入，如何合理珍視加密項目已成為關鍵問題。

Institutional investors are increasingly interested in allocating crypto assets in their portfolios, but a key challenge is how to reasonably value these emerging assets.

機構投資者對在其投資組合中分配加密資產的越來越感興趣，但是一個關鍵的挑戰是如何合理地重視這些新興資產。

Traditional financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, have mature valuation systems, such as the discounted cash flow (DCF) model and the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) valuation method. However, these models may not be directly applicable to crypto projects, which often have different characteristics, economic models, and token functions.

傳統的金融資產（例如股票和債券）具有成熟的估值系統，例如折扣現金流（DCF）模型和市盈率（P/E）估值方法。但是，這些模型可能不直接適用於加密項目，這些項目通常具有不同的特徵，經濟模型和令牌功能。

Crypto projects can be broadly classified into several types, including:

加密項目可以廣泛分為幾種類型，包括：

* Public chains: These are the underlying blockchains that enable various crypto applications. Examples include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Tron.

*公共連鎖店：這些是可以實現各種加密應用程序的基礎區塊鏈。例子包括比特幣，以太坊，索拉納和Tron。

* CEX platform coins: These are the tokens issued by centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Binance, Huobi, and OKEx.

* CEX平台硬幣：這些是由集中的加密貨幣交易所（例如Binance，Huobi和Okex）發出的令牌。

* DeFi projects: These are decentralized finance projects that build financial applications on top of public chains, such as lending, borrowing, derivatives, and liquidity pools.

* DEFI項目：這些是分散的財務項目，它們在公共連鎖店（例如貸款，借款，衍生品和流動性池）上建立財務應用程序。

* Meme coins: These are tokens that are created as a joke or meme, and often gain popularity quickly through social media. Examples include Dogecoin and Shiba Inu.

*模因硬幣：這些是作為笑話或模因創建的代幣，通常通過社交媒體迅速獲得流行。例子包括Dogecoin和Shiba Inu。

Each type of crypto project has its own unique features and valuation implications. For example, public chain projects are more closely related to the size and activity of their user base, while CEX platform coins are linked to the exchanges' revenue and profit performance.

每種類型的加密項目都有其獨特的功能和估值含義。例如，公共連鎖項目與用戶群的規模和活動更加緊密相關，而CEX平台硬幣與交易所的收入和利潤績效相關。

Here, we will explore several valuation models that are relevant to different types of crypto projects.

在這裡，我們將探索幾種與不同類型的加密項目相關的評估模型。

1. Public Chain - Metcalfe's Law

1。公共連鎖-Metcalfe法律

Analysis of the law

法律分析

1。公共連鎖 - 梅特卡夫的法律分析

The core content of Metcalfe's Law: The value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes.

Metcalfe定律的核心內容：網絡的價值與節點數量的正方形成正比。

V = K*N² (where V is the network value, N is the number of valid nodes, and K is a constant)

v = k*n²（其中v是網絡值，n是有效節點的數量，k是常數）

Metcalfe's Law is widely recognized in the value prediction of Internet companies. For example, in the paper "An Independent Study on the Value of Facebook and Tencent, China's Largest Social Networking Company (Zhang et al., 2015)", over a statistical period of 10 years, the value and number of users of these companies showed the characteristics of Metcalfe's Law.

梅特卡夫定律在互聯網公司的價值預測中得到了廣泛認可。例如，在“中國最大的社交網絡公司（Zhang等，2015）的Facebook和Tencent的價值的獨立研究中”，在10年的統計期內，這些公司的用戶價值和數量顯示了Metcalfe定律的特徵。

ETH Example

ETH示例

ETH示例

Metcalfe's law also applies to the valuation of blockchain public chain projects. Western scholars have found that the market value of Ethereum is in a logarithmic linear relationship with daily active users, which is basically consistent with the formula of Metcalfe's law. However, the market value of the Ethereum network is proportional to the user's N^(1.43), and the constant K is 3000. The calculation formula is as follows:

梅特卡夫法律也適用於區塊鏈公共連鎖項目的估值。西方學者發現，以太坊的市場價值與日常活躍用戶之間的對數線性關係，這基本上與梅特卡夫定律的公式一致。但是，以太坊網絡的市場價值與用戶的n^（1.43）成正比，常數k為3000。計算公式如下：

V = 3000 * N^1.43

v = 3000 * n^1.43

According to statistics, there is some correlation between Metcalfe's Law valuation method and ETH market value trend:

根據統計數據，Metcalfe的法律評估方法與ETH市場價值趨勢之間存在一些相關性：

Logarithmic trend chart:

對數趨勢圖：

Limitation Analysis

限制分析

When applied to emerging public chains in their early stages, Metcalfe’s Law has limitations. As the user base is relatively small, it is not suitable to use Metcalfe’s Law for valuation, such as the early Solana and Tron.

當在早期階段應用於新興的公共連鎖店時，梅特卡夫的法律有局限性。由於用戶群相對較小，因此不適合使用Metcalfe定律進行估值，例如早期的Solana和Tron。

In addition, Metcalfe's Law is also unable to reflect the impact of the pledge rate on token prices, the long-term impact of Gas fee burn under the EIP1559 mechanism, and the public chain ecosystem's possible game based on Security Ratio versus TVS (Total Value Secured).

此外，Metcalfe的定律也無法反映承諾利率對代幣價格的影響，EIP1559機制下的汽油費用燃燒的長期影響以及公共連鎖生態系統可能基於安全比率與TVS（確定的總價值）的可能遊戲。

2. CEX Platform Coins - Profitable Buyback & Destruction Model

2。 CEX平台硬幣 - 盈利的回購與破壞模型

Model analysis

模型分析

2。 CEX平台硬幣 - 盈利回購和破壞模型模型分析

Centralized exchange platform coins are similar to equity tokens and are related to exchange revenue (transaction fee income, listing fees, other financial services, etc.), public chain ecosystem development, and exchange market share. Platform coins generally have a repurchase and destruction mechanism, and may also have a Gas Fee Burn mechanism in the public chain.

集中式交流平台硬幣類似於股權代幣，與交換收入（交易費用收入，上市費，其他金融服務等），公共連鎖生態系統開發以及交易所市場份額有關。平台硬幣通常具有回購和破壞機制，並且在公共鏈中也可能具有汽油費燃燒機制。

The valuation of platform coins needs to consider the overall revenue of the platform, discount future cash flows to estimate the intrinsic value of the platform coins, and also consider the destruction mechanism of the platform coins, and measure the changes in its scarcity. Therefore, the rise and fall of platform coins are generally related to the growth rate of the trading volume of the trading platform and the reduction rate of the platform coin supply. The simplified profit repurchase & destruction model valuation method is calculated as follows:

平台硬幣的估值需要考慮平台的總體收入，打折未來現金流以估計平台硬幣的內在價值，並考慮平台硬幣的破壞機制，並衡量其稀缺性的變化。因此，平台硬幣的上升和下降通常與交易平台交易量的增長率以及平台硬幣供應的降低率有關。簡化的利潤回購和破壞模型估值方法的計算如下：

Platform coin value growth rate = K*transaction volume growth rate*supply destruction rate (where K is a constant)

平台硬幣價值增長率= k*交易量增長率*供應破壞率（其中k為常數）

BNB Instances

BNB實例

BNB實例

BNB is the most classic exchange platform currency. Since its launch in 2017, it has received wide acclaim from investors. BNB's empowerment has gone through two stages:

BNB是最經典的交換平台貨幣。自2017年推出以來，它已獲得投資者的廣泛讚譽。 BNB的授權經歷了兩個階段：

* Phase 1: Profit repurchase - From 2017 to 2020, Binance used 20% of its profits to repurchase and destroy BNB every quarter;

*第1階段：利潤回購 - 從2017年到2020年，二手債券使用其20％的利潤來回購和銷毀BNB，每季度；

* Phase 2: Auto-Burn + BEP95 -

*階段2：自動燃燒 + BEP95-