探索加密项目的估值模型

加密已成为金融技术领域中最具活力，最有前途的部门之一。随着许多机构资金的进入，如何合理珍视加密项目已成为关键问题。

Institutional investors are increasingly interested in allocating crypto assets in their portfolios, but a key challenge is how to reasonably value these emerging assets.

机构投资者对在其投资组合中分配加密资产的越来越感兴趣，但是一个关键的挑战是如何合理地重视这些新兴资产。

Traditional financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, have mature valuation systems, such as the discounted cash flow (DCF) model and the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) valuation method. However, these models may not be directly applicable to crypto projects, which often have different characteristics, economic models, and token functions.

传统的金融资产（例如股票和债券）具有成熟的估值系统，例如折扣现金流（DCF）模型和市盈率（P/E）估值方法。但是，这些模型可能不直接适用于加密项目，这些项目通常具有不同的特征，经济模型和令牌功能。

Crypto projects can be broadly classified into several types, including:

加密项目可以广泛分为几种类型，包括：

* Public chains: These are the underlying blockchains that enable various crypto applications. Examples include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Tron.

*公共连锁店：这些是可以实现各种加密应用程序的基础区块链。例子包括比特币，以太坊，索拉纳和Tron。

* CEX platform coins: These are the tokens issued by centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Binance, Huobi, and OKEx.

* CEX平台硬币：这些是由集中的加密货币交易所（例如Binance，Huobi和Okex）发出的令牌。

* DeFi projects: These are decentralized finance projects that build financial applications on top of public chains, such as lending, borrowing, derivatives, and liquidity pools.

* DEFI项目：这些是分散的财务项目，它们在公共连锁店（例如贷款，借款，衍生品和流动性池）上建立财务应用程序。

* Meme coins: These are tokens that are created as a joke or meme, and often gain popularity quickly through social media. Examples include Dogecoin and Shiba Inu.

*模因硬币：这些是作为笑话或模因创建的代币，通常通过社交媒体迅速获得流行。例子包括Dogecoin和Shiba Inu。

Each type of crypto project has its own unique features and valuation implications. For example, public chain projects are more closely related to the size and activity of their user base, while CEX platform coins are linked to the exchanges' revenue and profit performance.

每种类型的加密项目都有其独特的功能和估值含义。例如，公共连锁项目与用户群的规模和活动更加紧密相关，而CEX平台硬币与交易所的收入和利润绩效相关。

Here, we will explore several valuation models that are relevant to different types of crypto projects.

在这里，我们将探索几种与不同类型的加密项目相关的评估模型。

1. Public Chain - Metcalfe's Law

1。公共连锁-Metcalfe法律

Analysis of the law

法律分析

1。公共连锁 - 梅特卡夫的法律分析

The core content of Metcalfe's Law: The value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes.

Metcalfe定律的核心内容：网络的价值与节点数量的正方形成正比。

V = K*N² (where V is the network value, N is the number of valid nodes, and K is a constant)

v = k*n²（其中v是网络值，n是有效节点的数量，k是常数）

Metcalfe's Law is widely recognized in the value prediction of Internet companies. For example, in the paper "An Independent Study on the Value of Facebook and Tencent, China's Largest Social Networking Company (Zhang et al., 2015)", over a statistical period of 10 years, the value and number of users of these companies showed the characteristics of Metcalfe's Law.

梅特卡夫定律在互联网公司的价值预测中得到了广泛认可。例如，在“中国最大的社交网络公司（Zhang等，2015）的Facebook和Tencent的价值的独立研究中”，在10年的统计期内，这些公司的用户价值和数量显示了Metcalfe定律的特征。

ETH Example

ETH示例

ETH示例

Metcalfe's law also applies to the valuation of blockchain public chain projects. Western scholars have found that the market value of Ethereum is in a logarithmic linear relationship with daily active users, which is basically consistent with the formula of Metcalfe's law. However, the market value of the Ethereum network is proportional to the user's N^(1.43), and the constant K is 3000. The calculation formula is as follows:

梅特卡夫法律也适用于区块链公共连锁项目的估值。西方学者发现，以太坊的市场价值与日常活跃用户之间的对数线性关系，这基本上与梅特卡夫定律的公式一致。但是，以太坊网络的市场价值与用户的n^（1.43）成正比，常数k为3000。计算公式如下：

V = 3000 * N^1.43

v = 3000 * n^1.43

According to statistics, there is some correlation between Metcalfe's Law valuation method and ETH market value trend:

根据统计数据，Metcalfe的法律评估方法与ETH市场价值趋势之间存在一些相关性：

Logarithmic trend chart:

对数趋势图：

Limitation Analysis

限制分析

When applied to emerging public chains in their early stages, Metcalfe’s Law has limitations. As the user base is relatively small, it is not suitable to use Metcalfe’s Law for valuation, such as the early Solana and Tron.

当在早期阶段应用于新兴的公共连锁店时，梅特卡夫的法律有局限性。由于用户群相对较小，因此不适合使用Metcalfe定律进行估值，例如早期的Solana和Tron。

In addition, Metcalfe's Law is also unable to reflect the impact of the pledge rate on token prices, the long-term impact of Gas fee burn under the EIP1559 mechanism, and the public chain ecosystem's possible game based on Security Ratio versus TVS (Total Value Secured).

此外，Metcalfe的定律也无法反映承诺利率对代币价格的影响，EIP1559机制下的汽油费用燃烧的长期影响以及公共连锁生态系统可能基于安全比率与TVS（确定的总价值）的可能游戏。

2. CEX Platform Coins - Profitable Buyback & Destruction Model

2。CEX平台硬币 - 盈利的回购与破坏模型

Model analysis

模型分析

2。CEX平台硬币 - 盈利回购和破坏模型模型分析

Centralized exchange platform coins are similar to equity tokens and are related to exchange revenue (transaction fee income, listing fees, other financial services, etc.), public chain ecosystem development, and exchange market share. Platform coins generally have a repurchase and destruction mechanism, and may also have a Gas Fee Burn mechanism in the public chain.

集中式交流平台硬币类似于股权代币，与交换收入（交易费用收入，上市费，其他金融服务等），公共连锁生态系统开发以及交易所市场份额有关。平台硬币通常具有回购和破坏机制，并且在公共链中也可能具有汽油费燃烧机制。

The valuation of platform coins needs to consider the overall revenue of the platform, discount future cash flows to estimate the intrinsic value of the platform coins, and also consider the destruction mechanism of the platform coins, and measure the changes in its scarcity. Therefore, the rise and fall of platform coins are generally related to the growth rate of the trading volume of the trading platform and the reduction rate of the platform coin supply. The simplified profit repurchase & destruction model valuation method is calculated as follows:

平台硬币的估值需要考虑平台的总体收入，打折未来现金流以估计平台硬币的内在价值，并考虑平台硬币的破坏机制，并衡量其稀缺性的变化。因此，平台硬币的上升和下降通常与交易平台交易量的增长率以及平台硬币供应的降低率有关。简化的利润回购和破坏模型估值方法的计算如下：

Platform coin value growth rate = K*transaction volume growth rate*supply destruction rate (where K is a constant)

平台硬币价值增长率= k*交易量增长率*供应破坏率（其中k为常数）

BNB Instances

BNB实例

BNB实例

BNB is the most classic exchange platform currency. Since its launch in 2017, it has received wide acclaim from investors. BNB's empowerment has gone through two stages:

BNB是最经典的交换平台货币。自2017年推出以来，它已获得投资者的广泛赞誉。 BNB的授权经历了两个阶段：

* Phase 1: Profit repurchase - From 2017 to 2020, Binance used 20% of its profits to repurchase and destroy BNB every quarter;

*第1阶段：利润回购 - 从2017年到2020年，二手债券使用其20％的利润来回购和销毁BNB，每季度；

* Phase 2: Auto-Burn + BEP95 -

*阶段2：自动燃烧 + BEP95-