比特幣與黃金之間不斷發展的關係：政權轉移分析

這項研究探討了比特幣與黃金之間的關係，發現它們幾乎在2017年之前獨立運營，但是經過一系列定義的事件，他們開始展示相互反應動態。

Bitcoin and gold have become popular assets for investors seeking to preserve value against inflation and economic uncertainty. While they share certain characteristics, such as relative scarcity and a hedge against monetary debasement, the nature of their connection has been a subject of ongoing study.

對於尋求維護通貨膨脹和經濟不確定性價值的投資者來說，比特幣和黃金已成為流行資產。儘管他們具有某些特徵，例如相對稀缺性和對貨幣貶低的對沖，但其聯繫的性質一直是正在進行的研究的主題。

Early analyses, covering the period from 2010 to October 2017, indicate that the two assets operated almost independently. A slight negative effect of gold prices on Bitcoin is observed, which can be estimated using threshold regression models. These models yield a negative coefficient (β ≈ -0.51) for gold on BTC with minimal predictive power, aligning with the view that BTC was mainly a speculative asset.

涵蓋2010年至2017年10月期間的早期分析表明，這兩個資產幾乎獨立運營。觀察到黃金價格對比特幣的負面影響，可以使用閾值回歸模型來估計。這些模型產生了BTC上黃金的負係數（β≈ -0.51）具有最小的預測能力，與BTC主要是投機性資產的看法。

However, a significant shift occurs around October 2017, which is identified by parameter-stability tests and the CUSUM test. This change in regime is evident in the drastic shift in the correlation coefficient and Granger causality. After October 2017, the relationship becomes significantly positive (β ≈ +0.27), indicating that simultaneous interest in gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets increased.

但是，2017年10月左右發生了重大轉變，該轉變通過參數穩定性測試和CUSUM測試來確定。在相關係數和Granger因果關係的急劇轉移中，這種制度的這種變化很明顯。 2017年10月之後，這種關係變得顯著正（β≈+0.27），表明隨著替代資產的增加，對黃金和比特幣的同時興趣。

This finding is congruent with the broader narrative of a shift in Bitcoin's perception, which began to attract investor flows due to its diversification potential and risk tolerance. The initial momentum of 2017 is also linked to the institutional crypto adoption boom.

這一發現與比特幣觀念發生變化的更廣泛的敘述是一致的，該敘述由於其多樣化的潛力和風險承受能力而開始吸引投資者流動。 2017年的最初勢頭也與機構加密採用繁榮有關。

Further analysis, extending the study through 2024, shows that after 2020, the intensity of interrelation increases moderately. This is visualized by the Impulse-Response Functions, which display sharper reactions of BTC to shocks in gold prices and vice versa, with more prolonged impacts.

將研究擴展到2024年的進一步分析表明，在2020年之後，相互關係的強度適度增加。這是通過衝動反應函數可視化的，這些功能表現出BTC對黃金價格的衝擊的尖銳反應，反之亦然，其影響延長。

Despite this interdependence, the overall correlation remains close to zero, and causality tests only provide weak evidence of gold→BTC influence, suggesting that their growing interdependence is being driven by global macroeconomic factors.

儘管存在這種相互依存關係，但總體相關性仍然接近零，而因果關係測試僅提供了弱證據→BTC影響，這表明它們不斷增長的相互依賴性是由全球宏觀經濟因素驅動的。

Both gold and Bitcoin respond to inflation, monetary policy shifts (e.g., interest-rate tightening or monetary expansion), and changes in global liquidity, which affect the demand for both assets. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and risk aversion tend to exert simultaneous pressure on both assets.

黃金和比特幣都對通貨膨脹，貨幣政策轉變（例如，利率收緊或貨幣擴張）以及全球流動性的變化做出反應，這影響了對這兩種資產的需求。此外，地緣政治緊張局勢和風險規避傾向於同時對兩個資產施加壓力。

In an environment dominated by uncertainty and the search for alternatives outside the traditional banking system, the role of Bitcoin, a decentralized cryptocurrency, and gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is becoming increasingly amplified.

在以不確定性為主導的環境和在傳統銀行體系之外尋找替代方案的環境中，比特幣的作用，分散的加密貨幣和傳統的避風港資產黃金正在越來越受到放大。

For investors allocating part of their portfolio to safe-haven or diversification assets, understanding this relationship is crucial. Bitcoin still shows higher volatility compared to gold and, unlike the yellow metal, does not have a long history as a store of value. However, Bitcoin's joint response to market events offers partial hedging opportunities.

對於將部分投資組合分配給避風港或多元化資產的投資者來說，了解這種關係至關重要。與黃金相比，比特幣仍然顯示出更高的波動率，與黃色金屬不同，比特幣作為價值存儲的歷史悠久。但是，比特幣對市場事件的聯合反應提供了部分對沖機會。

Maintaining balanced exposure to both assets, assessing the timing of structural breaks in their regimes, and adjusting allocations to integrate economic cycle phases can enhance risk management strategies in the current volatile market.

保持對這兩個資產的平衡敞口，評估政權中結構性休息的時間，並調整分配以整合經濟周期階段，可以增強當前波動性市場的風險管理策略。

The relationship between Bitcoin and gold is evolving toward a more integrated profile while retaining elements of autonomy. The 2017 break marked the start of a positive link that became stronger after the pandemic. Going forward, its development will depend on global policy shifts and the maturity of the crypto market.

比特幣與黃金之間的關係正在朝著更加集成的概況發展，同時保留了自主性要素。 2017年的突破標誌著正面的積極聯繫的開始，該鏈接在大流行後變得更加牢固。展望未來，其發展將取決於全球政策的轉變和加密市場的成熟度。

Grasping these technical nuances will enable investors and analysts to better anticipate the synergy between these two assets in their pursuit of security and diversification.

掌握這些技術細微差別將使投資者和分析師能夠更好地預期這兩個資產在追求安全和多元化時的協同作用。