比特币与黄金之间不断发展的关系：政权转移分析

这项研究探讨了比特币与黄金之间的关系，发现它们几乎在2017年之前独立运营，但是经过一系列定义的事件，他们开始展示相互反应动态。

Bitcoin and gold have become popular assets for investors seeking to preserve value against inflation and economic uncertainty. While they share certain characteristics, such as relative scarcity and a hedge against monetary debasement, the nature of their connection has been a subject of ongoing study.

对于寻求维护通货膨胀和经济不确定性价值的投资者来说，比特币和黄金已成为流行资产。尽管他们具有某些特征，例如相对稀缺性和对货币贬低的对冲，但其联系的性质一直是正在进行的研究的主题。

Early analyses, covering the period from 2010 to October 2017, indicate that the two assets operated almost independently. A slight negative effect of gold prices on Bitcoin is observed, which can be estimated using threshold regression models. These models yield a negative coefficient (β ≈ -0.51) for gold on BTC with minimal predictive power, aligning with the view that BTC was mainly a speculative asset.

涵盖2010年至2017年10月期间的早期分析表明，这两个资产几乎独立运营。观察到黄金价格对比特币的负面影响，可以使用阈值回归模型来估计。这些模型产生了BTC上黄金的负系数（β≈ -0.51）具有最小的预测能力，与BTC主要是投机性资产的看法。

However, a significant shift occurs around October 2017, which is identified by parameter-stability tests and the CUSUM test. This change in regime is evident in the drastic shift in the correlation coefficient and Granger causality. After October 2017, the relationship becomes significantly positive (β ≈ +0.27), indicating that simultaneous interest in gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets increased.

但是，2017年10月左右发生了重大转变，该转变通过参数稳定性测试和CUSUM测试来确定。在相关系数和Granger因果关系的急剧转移中，这种制度的这种变化很明显。 2017年10月之后，这种关系变得显着正（β≈+0.27），表明随着替代资产的增加，对黄金和比特币的同时兴趣。

This finding is congruent with the broader narrative of a shift in Bitcoin's perception, which began to attract investor flows due to its diversification potential and risk tolerance. The initial momentum of 2017 is also linked to the institutional crypto adoption boom.

这一发现与比特币观念发生变化的更广泛的叙述是一致的，该叙述由于其多样化的潜力和风险承受能力而开始吸引投资者流动。 2017年的最初势头也与机构加密采用繁荣有关。

Further analysis, extending the study through 2024, shows that after 2020, the intensity of interrelation increases moderately. This is visualized by the Impulse-Response Functions, which display sharper reactions of BTC to shocks in gold prices and vice versa, with more prolonged impacts.

将研究扩展到2024年的进一步分析表明，在2020年之后，相互关系的强度适度增加。这是通过冲动反应函数可视化的，这些功能表现出BTC对黄金价格的冲击的尖锐反应，反之亦然，其影响延长。

Despite this interdependence, the overall correlation remains close to zero, and causality tests only provide weak evidence of gold→BTC influence, suggesting that their growing interdependence is being driven by global macroeconomic factors.

尽管存在这种相互依存关系，但总体相关性仍然接近零，而因果关系测试仅提供了弱证据→BTC影响，这表明它们不断增长的相互依赖性是由全球宏观经济因素驱动的。

Both gold and Bitcoin respond to inflation, monetary policy shifts (e.g., interest-rate tightening or monetary expansion), and changes in global liquidity, which affect the demand for both assets. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and risk aversion tend to exert simultaneous pressure on both assets.

黄金和比特币都对通货膨胀，货币政策转变（例如，利率收紧或货币扩张）以及全球流动性的变化做出反应，这影响了对这两种资产的需求。此外，地缘政治紧张局势和风险规避倾向于同时对两个资产施加压力。

In an environment dominated by uncertainty and the search for alternatives outside the traditional banking system, the role of Bitcoin, a decentralized cryptocurrency, and gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is becoming increasingly amplified.

在以不确定性为主导的环境和在传统银行体系之外寻找替代方案的环境中，比特币的作用，分散的加密货币和传统的避风港资产黄金正在越来越受到放大。

For investors allocating part of their portfolio to safe-haven or diversification assets, understanding this relationship is crucial. Bitcoin still shows higher volatility compared to gold and, unlike the yellow metal, does not have a long history as a store of value. However, Bitcoin's joint response to market events offers partial hedging opportunities.

对于将部分投资组合分配给避风港或多元化资产的投资者来说，了解这种关系至关重要。与黄金相比，比特币仍然显示出更高的波动率，与黄色金属不同，比特币作为价值存储的历史悠久。但是，比特币对市场事件的联合反应提供了部分对冲机会。

Maintaining balanced exposure to both assets, assessing the timing of structural breaks in their regimes, and adjusting allocations to integrate economic cycle phases can enhance risk management strategies in the current volatile market.

保持对这两个资产的平衡敞口，评估政权中结构性休息的时间，并调整分配以整合经济周期阶段，可以增强当前波动性市场的风险管理策略。

The relationship between Bitcoin and gold is evolving toward a more integrated profile while retaining elements of autonomy. The 2017 break marked the start of a positive link that became stronger after the pandemic. Going forward, its development will depend on global policy shifts and the maturity of the crypto market.

比特币与黄金之间的关系正在朝着更加集成的概况发展，同时保留了自主性要素。 2017年的突破标志着正面的积极联系的开始，该链接在大流行后变得更加牢固。展望未来，其发展将取决于全球政策的转变和加密市场的成熟度。

Grasping these technical nuances will enable investors and analysts to better anticipate the synergy between these two assets in their pursuit of security and diversification.

掌握这些技术细微差别将使投资者和分析师能够更好地预期这两个资产在追求安全和多元化时的协同作用。