以太坊的總市值有一天會超過比特幣的總市值嗎？

是的，我仍然相信以太坊的總市值有一天會超過比特幣。

A reader asked the following question in the comments:

一位讀者在評論中問以下問題：

> Do you still believe that Ethereum's total market capitalization will one day exceed Bitcoin's total market capitalization?Yes, I still believe that Ethereum's total market capitalization will one day exceed Bitcoin's.

>您仍然認為以太坊的總市值有一天會超過比特幣的總市值嗎？是的，我仍然相信以太坊的總市值有一天會超過比特幣。

My assumptions and logic are still the same as I shared before.

我的假設和邏輯仍然與我以前分享的相同。

I believe that public chains based on blockchain technology will become platforms for a new economy in the future, and I believe that the total value carried by this platform may exceed the value created by human society today. Therefore, I think there must be such a public chain.

我認為，基於區塊鏈技術的公共連鎖店將來將成為新經濟的平台，我相信該平台所帶來的總價值可能會超過當今人類社會創造的價值。因此，我認為必須有這樣的公共連鎖店。

For a public chain to support such an ecosystem, it must possess the uncompromising characteristics of decentralization, censorship resistance, and security, and it must also have Turing completeness.

為了使公共連鎖支持這種生態系統，它必須具有權力下放，審查阻力和安全性的毫不妥協的特徵，並且還必須具有完整性。

Currently, I believe that only Ethereum can meet these conditions, although it still has many issues and continues to face criticism.

目前，我認為只有以太坊才能符合這些條件，儘管它仍然存在許多問題並繼續面臨批評。

According to Ethereum's current token economic mechanism, ETH can capture the ecological value carried by Ethereum (including layer two, layer three, and even more layers of expansion).

根據以太坊當前的代幣經濟機制，ETH可以捕獲以太坊攜帶的生態價值（包括第二層，第三層，甚至更多的擴張層）。

Although currently, layer two expansions capture most of the economic value in this ecosystem, I think the root cause is still that the overall economic scale is not large enough.

儘管目前，第二層擴展佔據了本生態系統中的大部分經濟價值，但我認為根本原因仍然是總體經濟規模不夠大。

The reason for the insufficient economic scale has been shared repeatedly in my previous articles: there is simply too little original content on-chain.

在我以前的文章中反複分享了經濟規模不足的原因：鏈上的原始內容太少了。

However, I believe that this ecosystem will definitely thrive in the future, and ETH will certainly capture ecological value.

但是，我相信這個生態系統肯定會在未來蓬勃發展，而ETH肯定會捕捉生態價值。

Since ETH can capture ecological value, and ecological value will continue to expand, then the market capitalization of ETH may exceed that over Bitcoin.

由於ETH可以捕獲生態價值，並且生態價值將繼續擴展，因此ETH的市值可能超過比特幣。

Bitcoin's value relies on consensus; it is very similar to gold. Its value will definitely rise in the future, but once it reaches a certain height, the rate of increase will likely become smaller and may even approach a certain value infinitely.

比特幣的價值依賴於共識；它與黃金非常相似。它的價值肯定會在將來上升，但是一旦達到一定的高度，增加的速度可能會變小，甚至可能無限地接近一定價值。

In contrast, Ethereum's value is driven by the economic ecosystem, and theoretically, it can develop eternally and expand infinitely, with no upper limit on its increase.

相比之下，以太坊的價值是由經濟生態系統驅動的，從理論上講，它可以永恆地發展和無限擴展，其增加沒有上限。

Using gold as an example may help us see the patterns in this.

以黃金為例可以幫助我們看到其中的模式。

The exit of the gold standard from the historical stage is a very typical case.

歷史階段的黃金標準退出是一個非常典型的情況。

Before the effective existence of the gold standard, thousands of years of economic development in human society were sufficient to be measured by gold, or in other words, the gold held by humanity was enough to encompass all the value created.

在有效地存在黃金標準之前，人類社會的數千年的經濟發展足以通過黃金來衡量，換句話說，人類持有的黃金足以涵蓋所有創造的價值。

However, after the Industrial Revolution, especially in contemporary times, the development of human society has been at an exponential speed, and the pace of value creation has far exceeded the amount of gold mined.

但是，在工業革命之後，尤其是在當代時代，人類社會的發展一直處於指數速度，價值創造的速度遠遠超過了開采的黃金的數量。

At this point, if we still mechanically bind the value of currency to gold and forcibly restrict the issuance of currency, it would lead to deflation, hinder the economy, and severely restrict human development.

在這一點上，如果我們仍然將貨幣的價值綁定到黃金並強行限制貨幣發行，則將導致通貨緊縮，阻礙經濟，並嚴重限制了人類發展。

Take Bitcoin as an example.

以比特幣為例。

In our ecosystem alone, I believe many people firmly believe that in the near future, Bitcoin's market capitalization will exceed that of gold, right?

僅在我們的生態系統中，我相信許多人堅信，在不久的將來，比特幣的市值將超過黃金，對嗎？

But how long has Bitcoin existed?

但是比特幣存在多長時間？

And how long has gold been discovered?

黃金已經發現了多長時間了？

Bitcoin's history is less than a fraction of gold's history.

比特幣的歷史遠不及黃金歷史的一小部分。

Yet, this new phenomenon has created such brilliant value in such a short time; isn't this a living example of the development of human society and technology?

然而，這種新現像在如此短的時間內創造瞭如此出色的價值。這不是人類社會和技術發展的生動例子嗎？

Since economic development and the value created by human society will inevitably break free from the constraints of gold and will inevitably exceed the total market capitalization of gold, why can't Ethereum, which may carry the on-chain economy, exceed the total market capitalization of "digital gold"?

由於經濟發展和人類社會創造的價值將不可避免地擺脫黃金的限制，而不可避免地會超過黃金的總市值，所以為什麼可能帶有鏈接經濟的以太坊不能超過“數字黃金”的總市場資本化？

So I still believe this, and I think that day does not seem particularly far away.

因此，我仍然相信這一點，而且我認為這一天似乎並不那麼遙遠。