以太坊的总市值有一天会超过比特币的总市值吗？

是的，我仍然相信以太坊的总市值有一天会超过比特币。

A reader asked the following question in the comments:

一位读者在评论中问以下问题：

> Do you still believe that Ethereum's total market capitalization will one day exceed Bitcoin's total market capitalization?Yes, I still believe that Ethereum's total market capitalization will one day exceed Bitcoin's.

>您仍然认为以太坊的总市值有一天会超过比特币的总市值吗？是的，我仍然相信以太坊的总市值有一天会超过比特币。

My assumptions and logic are still the same as I shared before.

我的假设和逻辑仍然与我以前分享的相同。

I believe that public chains based on blockchain technology will become platforms for a new economy in the future, and I believe that the total value carried by this platform may exceed the value created by human society today. Therefore, I think there must be such a public chain.

我认为，基于区块链技术的公共连锁店将来将成为新经济的平台，我相信该平台所带来的总价值可能会超过当今人类社会创造的价值。因此，我认为必须有这样的公共连锁店。

For a public chain to support such an ecosystem, it must possess the uncompromising characteristics of decentralization, censorship resistance, and security, and it must also have Turing completeness.

为了使公共连锁支持这种生态系统，它必须具有权力下放，审查阻力和安全性的毫不妥协的特征，并且还必须具有完整性。

Currently, I believe that only Ethereum can meet these conditions, although it still has many issues and continues to face criticism.

目前，我认为只有以太坊才能符合这些条件，尽管它仍然存在许多问题并继续面临批评。

According to Ethereum's current token economic mechanism, ETH can capture the ecological value carried by Ethereum (including layer two, layer three, and even more layers of expansion).

根据以太坊当前的代币经济机制，ETH可以捕获以太坊携带的生态价值（包括第二层，第三层，甚至更多的扩张层）。

Although currently, layer two expansions capture most of the economic value in this ecosystem, I think the root cause is still that the overall economic scale is not large enough.

尽管目前，第二层扩展占据了本生态系统中的大部分经济价值，但我认为根本原因仍然是总体经济规模不够大。

The reason for the insufficient economic scale has been shared repeatedly in my previous articles: there is simply too little original content on-chain.

在我以前的文章中反复分享了经济规模不足的原因：链上的原始内容太少了。

However, I believe that this ecosystem will definitely thrive in the future, and ETH will certainly capture ecological value.

但是，我相信这个生态系统肯定会在未来蓬勃发展，而ETH肯定会捕捉生态价值。

Since ETH can capture ecological value, and ecological value will continue to expand, then the market capitalization of ETH may exceed that over Bitcoin.

由于ETH可以捕获生态价值，并且生态价值将继续扩展，因此ETH的市值可能超过比特币。

Bitcoin's value relies on consensus; it is very similar to gold. Its value will definitely rise in the future, but once it reaches a certain height, the rate of increase will likely become smaller and may even approach a certain value infinitely.

比特币的价值依赖于共识；它与黄金非常相似。它的价值肯定会在将来上升，但是一旦达到一定的高度，增加的速度可能会变小，甚至可能无限地接近一定价值。

In contrast, Ethereum's value is driven by the economic ecosystem, and theoretically, it can develop eternally and expand infinitely, with no upper limit on its increase.

相比之下，以太坊的价值是由经济生态系统驱动的，从理论上讲，它可以永恒地发展和无限扩展，其增加没有上限。

Using gold as an example may help us see the patterns in this.

以黄金为例可以帮助我们看到其中的模式。

The exit of the gold standard from the historical stage is a very typical case.

历史阶段的黄金标准退出是一个非常典型的情况。

Before the effective existence of the gold standard, thousands of years of economic development in human society were sufficient to be measured by gold, or in other words, the gold held by humanity was enough to encompass all the value created.

在有效地存在黄金标准之前，人类社会的数千年的经济发展足以通过黄金来衡量，换句话说，人类持有的黄金足以涵盖所有创造的价值。

However, after the Industrial Revolution, especially in contemporary times, the development of human society has been at an exponential speed, and the pace of value creation has far exceeded the amount of gold mined.

但是，在工业革命之后，尤其是在当代时代，人类社会的发展一直处于指数速度，价值创造的速度远远超过了开采的黄金的数量。

At this point, if we still mechanically bind the value of currency to gold and forcibly restrict the issuance of currency, it would lead to deflation, hinder the economy, and severely restrict human development.

在这一点上，如果我们仍然将货币的价值绑定到黄金并强行限制货币发行，则将导致通货紧缩，阻碍经济，并严重限制了人类发展。

Take Bitcoin as an example.

以比特币为例。

In our ecosystem alone, I believe many people firmly believe that in the near future, Bitcoin's market capitalization will exceed that of gold, right?

仅在我们的生态系统中，我相信许多人坚信，在不久的将来，比特币的市值将超过黄金，对吗？

But how long has Bitcoin existed?

但是比特币存在多长时间？

And how long has gold been discovered?

黄金已经发现了多长时间了？

Bitcoin's history is less than a fraction of gold's history.

比特币的历史远不及黄金历史的一小部分。

Yet, this new phenomenon has created such brilliant value in such a short time; isn't this a living example of the development of human society and technology?

然而，这种新现象在如此短的时间内创造了如此出色的价值。这不是人类社会和技术发展的生动例子吗？

Since economic development and the value created by human society will inevitably break free from the constraints of gold and will inevitably exceed the total market capitalization of gold, why can't Ethereum, which may carry the on-chain economy, exceed the total market capitalization of "digital gold"?

由于经济发展和人类社会创造的价值将不可避免地摆脱黄金的限制，而不可避免地会超过黄金的总市值，所以为什么可能带有链接经济的以太坊不能超过“数字黄金”的总市场资本化？

So I still believe this, and I think that day does not seem particularly far away.

因此，我仍然相信这一点，而且我认为这一天似乎并不那么遥远。