以太坊（ETH）價格預測：智能合同平台是否會在第二季度2025中反彈？

以太坊通常被視為分散應用程序的骨幹，並且是按市值劃分的第二大加密貨幣，目前處於其市場軌蹟的關鍵時刻。

Ethereum (ETH), a cryptocurrency renowned for its role in decentralized applications and standing as the second-largest digital asset, is currently at a pivotal moment in its market cycle. Known for its dramatic price swings, Ethereum has seen a troubling start to 2025.

以太坊（ETH）是一種以其在分散應用程序中的作用而聞名的加密貨幣，並成為第二大數字資產，目前正處於其市場週期中的關鍵時刻。以戲劇性的價格波動而聞名，以太坊在2025年的開局令人不安。

Despite its resilience and history of innovation, Q1 2025 has been a period of significant underperformance for the cryptocurrency. In fact, it has been performing poorly relative to e.g., Bitcoin.

儘管具有韌性和創新歷史，但第1季度2025年仍然是加密貨幣表現不佳的時期。實際上，相對於例如比特幣，它的性能差。

While these bearish indicators are concerning, market whispers suggest the possibility of a substantial Q2 rebound—potentially a 60% surge to reach $3,200.

儘管這些看跌指標令人擔憂，但市場竊竊私語表明可能有大量Q2反彈的可能性，這是60％的激增，達到3,200美元。

This article will delve into the intricate market forces at play, examining both the pessimistic outlook gleaned from Q1 and the potential catalysts that could propel Ethereum's resurgence in Q2.

本文將深入研究複雜的市場力量，研究第1季度收集到的悲觀前景以及可能推動以太坊在Q2中復興的潛在催化劑。

A Bleak Start to 2025

到2025年開始

Ethereum commenced 2025 with stirrings of optimism, kicking off Q1 at $3,334. However, the asset faced a sharp retracement, bottoming out at $2,053 with just a week remaining in the quarter.

以太坊從2025年開始，樂觀興奮，以3,334美元的價格啟動了第一季度。但是，資產面臨著急劇的回溯，在本季度還剩下一周的時間為2,053美元。

This dramatic downturn represents a 38% drawdown—a stark divergence from the bullish momentum seen in previous years. For instance, in Q1 2024 alone, Ethereum surged to an all-time high of $4,081 by the quarter’s end, not to mention a 84% quarterly gain.

這種戲劇性的衰退代表了38％的下降，這與前幾年所見的看漲勢頭的差異。例如，僅在第1季度，以太坊就在本季度結束時飆升至歷史高達4,081美元，更不用說季度收益84％了。

The stark contrast between these two periods has naturally sparked concerns among investors regarding the cryptocurrency's strength and long-term stability.

這兩個時期之間的鮮明對比自然引起了投資者對加密貨幣強度和長期穩定的關注。

Liquidity and Institutional Sentiment

流動性和機構情緒

Beyond price fluctuations, the underwhelming performance of Ethereum in Q1 is also evident in the subdued liquidity inflows and stagnant network activity.

除了價格波動之外，在柔和的流動性流入和停滯的網絡活動中，以太坊在Q1中的表現也很明顯。

Analysts, noting a decline in institutional participation, have revised their year-end Ethereum price targets downward by nearly 60%. This shift underscores the severity of the current bearish sentiment, which is a broader decline in market confidence.

分析師注意到機構參與的下降，已將其年終以太​​坊價格目標下降了近60％。這一轉變強調了當前看跌情緒的嚴重性，這是市場信心的廣泛下降。

To put this into perspective, several institutions began 2024 with optimistic price predictions for Ethereum by year-end. For instance, FIGMENT had an initial price target of $6,000, and Bank of America's analysts had an even higher estimate of $78,000. However, by the time the first quarter of 2025 arrived, these targets had been slashed.

為了介紹這一點，幾個機構始於2024年，對以太坊的年底預測的樂觀價格預測。例如，Figment的初始價格目標為6,000美元，而美國銀行的分析師的估計更高78,000美元。但是，到2025年第一季度到達時，這些目標已被削減。

Adding to these concerns, Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin has reached alarming levels. The ETH/BTC pair—a key metric that gauges Ethereum's strength against the flagship cryptocurrency—recently plummeted to a five-year low.

除了這些問題外，以太坊相對於比特幣的表現達到了令人震驚的水平。 ETH/BTC對（這是一個關鍵指標，它衡量以太坊對旗艦加密貨幣的實力 - 截至五年的低點。

Unlike previous cycles, where capital rotated from Bitcoin to Ethereum during bullish phases, this cycle has seen a deviation from that trend. Usually, as Bitcoin rallies, traders tend to book profits on their Bitcoin positions and seek out the next leg of the bull market in the altcoin market. However, despite Bitcoin's recent ascent to new all-time highs, converging towards $88,000, Ethereum failed to capitalize on the bullish spillover.

與以前的周期不同的是，在看漲階段，資本從比特幣轉向以太坊，這個週期與這種趨勢有所偏離。通常，作為比特幣集會，交易者傾向於在其比特幣頭寸上預訂利潤，並在Altcoin市場中尋找下一個公牛市場。但是，儘管比特幣最近提高了新歷史最高點，匯聚到了88,000美元，但以太坊未能利用看漲的溢出。

Weakening Demand and Trading Volume

削弱需求和交易量

Even during Bitcoin's recent rebound, Ethereum failed to exhibit strong recovery momentum.

即使在比特幣最近的反彈中，以太坊也沒有表現出強大的恢復動力。

According to data from Santiment, Ethereum's trading volume remained subdued throughout the period, further reinforcing the bearish outlook. Typically, strong rebounds are accompanied by heightened trading activity, signaling renewed investor confidence.

根據Santiment的數據，以太坊的交易量在整個時期仍然柔和，進一步增強了看跌前景。通常，強大的籃板伴隨著增強的交易活動，這表明了投資者的信心。

However, the lack of significant volume during Ethereum's minor recovery to $2,000 suggests that demand for the asset remains tepid.

但是，以太坊在以太坊的輕微回收中缺乏大量數量，這表明對資產的需求仍然很溫和。

A History of Defying Expectations

違抗期望的歷史

Despite these ominous signals from Q1, Ethereum has an uncanny ability to defy expectations. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and often unpredictable, with Ethereum frequently leading unexpected surges.

儘管這些不祥的信號來自Q1，但以太坊具有無視期望的不可思議的能力。加密貨幣市場本質上是波動的，通常是不可預測的，以太坊經常引起意想不到的潮流。

For instance, in 2021, Ethereum engaged in a price rally that took many investors by surprise. Commencing the year at $1,200, Ethereum experienced a meteoric rise to $4,800 within a span of 12 months. This dramatic surge showcases the sudden and unexpected price swings that can occur in the crypto sphere.

例如，在2021年，以太坊進行了一次價格集會，這使許多投資者感到驚訝。以1200美元的價格開始，以太坊在12個月的時間內經歷了迅速上漲至4,800美元。這種戲劇性的激增展示了加密球體中可能發生的突然和意外的價格波動。

This brings us to a crucial question: could the current bearish sentiment be setting the stage for an explosive Q2 rally? Given Ethereum's past performance and the persistent nature of market trends, it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility of a substantial price resurgence. In fact, considering the speed and strength of previous rallies, a 60% surge from current levels to $3,200 could be achieved in a single quarter.

這使我們提出了一個至關重要的問題：當前的看跌情緒能否為爆炸性的Q2集會奠定基礎嗎？鑑於以太坊的過去表現和市場趨勢的持續性質，駁斥價格恢復的可能性是不明智的。實際上，考慮到以前的集會的速度和實力，一個季度可以實現60％的速度，從當前水平到3200美元。

Ethereum's Resilience in Market Corrections

以太坊在市場更正中的彈性

A closer look at Ethereum's performance in Q2 2024 reveals an interesting trend. During that period, Bitcoin ended the quarter 14% below its opening price, while Ethereum demonstrated relative strength, declining by only 5%. This suggests that Ethereum has historically been capable of outperforming the broader market during correction

仔細研究以太坊在第二季度2024年的表現顯示出一個有趣的趨勢。在此期間，比特幣結束了該四分之一的開放價格14％，而以太坊表現出相對強度，僅下降了5％。這表明以太坊歷史上能夠在更正期間優於更廣泛的市場