以太坊（ETH）价格预测：智能合同平台是否会在第二季度2025中反弹？

以太坊通常被视为分散应用程序的骨干，并且是按市值划分的第二大加密货币，目前处于其市场轨迹的关键时刻。

Ethereum (ETH), a cryptocurrency renowned for its role in decentralized applications and standing as the second-largest digital asset, is currently at a pivotal moment in its market cycle. Known for its dramatic price swings, Ethereum has seen a troubling start to 2025.

以太坊（ETH）是一种以其在分散应用程序中的作用而闻名的加密货币，并成为第二大数字资产，目前正处于其市场周期中的关键时刻。以戏剧性的价格波动而闻名，以太坊在2025年的开局令人不安。

Despite its resilience and history of innovation, Q1 2025 has been a period of significant underperformance for the cryptocurrency. In fact, it has been performing poorly relative to e.g., Bitcoin.

尽管具有韧性和创新历史，但第1季度2025年仍然是加密货币表现不佳的时期。实际上，相对于例如比特币，它的性能差。

While these bearish indicators are concerning, market whispers suggest the possibility of a substantial Q2 rebound—potentially a 60% surge to reach $3,200.

尽管这些看跌指标令人担忧，但市场窃窃私语表明可能有大量Q2反弹的可能性，这是60％的激增，达到3,200美元。

This article will delve into the intricate market forces at play, examining both the pessimistic outlook gleaned from Q1 and the potential catalysts that could propel Ethereum's resurgence in Q2.

本文将深入研究复杂的市场力量，研究第1季度收集到的悲观前景以及可能推动以太坊在Q2中复兴的潜在催化剂。

A Bleak Start to 2025

到2025年开始

Ethereum commenced 2025 with stirrings of optimism, kicking off Q1 at $3,334. However, the asset faced a sharp retracement, bottoming out at $2,053 with just a week remaining in the quarter.

以太坊从2025年开始，乐观兴奋，以3,334美元的价格启动了第一季度。但是，资产面临着急剧的回溯，在本季度还剩下一周的时间为2,053美元。

This dramatic downturn represents a 38% drawdown—a stark divergence from the bullish momentum seen in previous years. For instance, in Q1 2024 alone, Ethereum surged to an all-time high of $4,081 by the quarter’s end, not to mention a 84% quarterly gain.

这种戏剧性的衰退代表了38％的下降，这与前几年所见的看涨势头的差异。例如，仅在第1季度，以太坊就在本季度结束时飙升至历史高达4,081美元，更不用说季度收益84％了。

The stark contrast between these two periods has naturally sparked concerns among investors regarding the cryptocurrency's strength and long-term stability.

这两个时期之间的鲜明对比自然引起了投资者对加密货币强度和长期稳定的关注。

Liquidity and Institutional Sentiment

流动性和机构情绪

Beyond price fluctuations, the underwhelming performance of Ethereum in Q1 is also evident in the subdued liquidity inflows and stagnant network activity.

除了价格波动之外，在柔和的流动性流入和停滞的网络活动中，以太坊在Q1中的表现也很明显。

Analysts, noting a decline in institutional participation, have revised their year-end Ethereum price targets downward by nearly 60%. This shift underscores the severity of the current bearish sentiment, which is a broader decline in market confidence.

分析师注意到机构参与的下降，已将其年终以太​​坊价格目标下降了近60％。这一转变强调了当前看跌情绪的严重性，这是市场信心的广泛下降。

To put this into perspective, several institutions began 2024 with optimistic price predictions for Ethereum by year-end. For instance, FIGMENT had an initial price target of $6,000, and Bank of America's analysts had an even higher estimate of $78,000. However, by the time the first quarter of 2025 arrived, these targets had been slashed.

为了介绍这一点，几个机构始于2024年，对以太坊的年底预测的乐观价格预测。例如，Figment的初始价格目标为6,000美元，而美国银行的分析师的估计更高78,000美元。但是，到2025年第一季度到达时，这些目标已被削减。

Adding to these concerns, Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin has reached alarming levels. The ETH/BTC pair—a key metric that gauges Ethereum's strength against the flagship cryptocurrency—recently plummeted to a five-year low.

除了这些问题外，以太坊相对于比特币的表现达到了令人震惊的水平。 ETH/BTC对（这是一个关键指标，它衡量以太坊对旗舰加密货币的实力 - 逐渐跌至五年低点。

Unlike previous cycles, where capital rotated from Bitcoin to Ethereum during bullish phases, this cycle has seen a deviation from that trend. Usually, as Bitcoin rallies, traders tend to book profits on their Bitcoin positions and seek out the next leg of the bull market in the altcoin market. However, despite Bitcoin's recent ascent to new all-time highs, converging towards $88,000, Ethereum failed to capitalize on the bullish spillover.

与以前的周期不同的是，在看涨阶段，资本从比特币转向以太坊，这个周期与这种趋势有所偏离。通常，作为比特币集会，交易者倾向于在其比特币头寸上预订利润，并在Altcoin市场中寻找下一个公牛市场。但是，尽管比特币最近提高了新历史最高点，汇聚到了88,000美元，但以太坊未能利用看涨的溢出。

Weakening Demand and Trading Volume

削弱需求和交易量

Even during Bitcoin's recent rebound, Ethereum failed to exhibit strong recovery momentum.

即使在比特币最近的反弹中，以太坊也没有表现出强大的恢复动力。

According to data from Santiment, Ethereum's trading volume remained subdued throughout the period, further reinforcing the bearish outlook. Typically, strong rebounds are accompanied by heightened trading activity, signaling renewed investor confidence.

根据Santiment的数据，以太坊的交易量在整个时期仍然柔和，进一步增强了看跌前景。通常，强大的篮板伴随着增强的交易活动，这表明了投资者的信心。

However, the lack of significant volume during Ethereum's minor recovery to $2,000 suggests that demand for the asset remains tepid.

但是，以太坊在以太坊的轻微回收中缺乏大量数量，这表明对资产的需求仍然很温和。

A History of Defying Expectations

违抗期望的历史

Despite these ominous signals from Q1, Ethereum has an uncanny ability to defy expectations. The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile and often unpredictable, with Ethereum frequently leading unexpected surges.

尽管这些不祥的信号来自Q1，但以太坊具有无视期望的不可思议的能力。加密货币市场本质上是波动的，通常是不可预测的，以太坊经常引起意想不到的潮流。

For instance, in 2021, Ethereum engaged in a price rally that took many investors by surprise. Commencing the year at $1,200, Ethereum experienced a meteoric rise to $4,800 within a span of 12 months. This dramatic surge showcases the sudden and unexpected price swings that can occur in the crypto sphere.

例如，在2021年，以太坊进行了一次价格集会，这使许多投资者感到惊讶。以1200美元的价格开始，以太坊在12个月的时间内经历了迅速上涨至4,800美元。这种戏剧性的激增展示了加密球体中可能发生的突然和意外的价格波动。

This brings us to a crucial question: could the current bearish sentiment be setting the stage for an explosive Q2 rally? Given Ethereum's past performance and the persistent nature of market trends, it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility of a substantial price resurgence. In fact, considering the speed and strength of previous rallies, a 60% surge from current levels to $3,200 could be achieved in a single quarter.

这使我们提出了一个至关重要的问题：当前的看跌情绪是否可以为爆炸性的Q2集会奠定基础吗？鉴于以太坊的过去表现和市场趋势的持续性质，驳斥价格恢复的可能性是不明智的。实际上，考虑到以前的集会的速度和实力，一个季度可以实现60％的速度，从当前水平到3200美元。

Ethereum's Resilience in Market Corrections

以太坊在市场更正中的弹性

A closer look at Ethereum's performance in Q2 2024 reveals an interesting trend. During that period, Bitcoin ended the quarter 14% below its opening price, while Ethereum demonstrated relative strength, declining by only 5%. This suggests that Ethereum has historically been capable of outperforming the broader market during correction

仔细研究以太坊在第二季度2024年的表现显示出一个有趣的趋势。在此期间，比特币结束了该四分之一的开放价格14％，而以太坊表现出相对强度，仅下降了5％。这表明以太坊历史上能够在更正期间优于更广泛的市场