儘管近期 BTC 下跌，以太幣仍有望迎來潛在的上漲趨勢

以太坊（ETH）相對於比特幣（BTC）的價值接近三年低點。然而，技術指標暗示了潛在的上漲，分析師預計 ETH/BTC 貨幣對將會上漲。儘管自轉向權益證明以來價值翻了一番，但自合併以來 ETH/BTC 已下跌 33%。最近的價格下跌已使該貨幣對跌至 2021 年以來的最低水平。

Ether Poised for Potential Upswing Despite Recent Slump Against Bitcoin

儘管近期兌比特幣暴跌，以太坊仍有望上漲

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed significant fluctuations in recent months, with Ether (ETH) experiencing a notable decline in its valuation against Bitcoin (BTC). However, amidst this downturn, several technical indicators suggest that ETH may be poised for a potential upswing, much to the anticipation of analysts.

近幾個月來，加密貨幣市場出現了大幅波動，以太幣（ETH）相對於比特幣（BTC）的估值顯著下降。然而，在經濟低迷的情況下，多項技術指標表明 ETH 可能會出現潛在的上漲，這在很大程度上出乎分析師的預期。

ETH Suffers Dip Against Bitcoin Post-Merge

合併後 ETH 兌比特幣下跌

Since its transition to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in September 2022, ETH has exhibited a remarkable surge in value relative to the US dollar. However, when measured against BTC, a different picture emerges, showcasing a decline of approximately 33% following the Merge.

自 2022 年 9 月過渡到權益證明共識機制以來，ETH 相對於美元的價值出現了顯著飆升。然而，以 BTC 為衡量標準時，卻出現了不同的情況，合併後下降了約 33%。

In recent weeks, ETH/BTC has continued its downward trajectory, shedding over 9% in the preceding month, plummeting to a low of 0.048 BTC. This represents the lowest point for the trading pair since May 2021, according to data from Tradingview.

最近幾週，ETH/BTC 繼續下跌，上個月下跌超過 9%，跌至 0.048 BTC 的低點。根據 Tradingview 的數據，這是該交易對自 2021 年 5 月以來的最低點。

Technical Indicators Hint at Potential Upswing

技術指標暗示潛在上漲

Despite the recent decline in ETH's valuation against BTC, several technical indicators are flashing bullish signals, hinting at a potential reversal of fortune.

儘管近期 ETH 相對於 BTC 的估值有所下降，但多項技術指標都閃爍著看漲訊號，暗示著命運可能發生逆轉。

Firstly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH/USD has dropped to 44 on the daily time frame, significantly below the overbought territory it occupied on March 11, when it stood at 85. This suggests that Ether is no longer considered overvalued and may be poised for a recovery.

首先，ETH/美元的相對強弱指數(RSI) 在每日時間範圍內已降至44，遠低於3 月11 日佔據的超買區域（當時為85）。被高估，並且可能已做好復甦的準備。

Secondly, the $3,200 psychological mark bears significance as a potential support level. According to data from Coinglass, a liquidation of over $97 million worth of leveraged short positions would be triggered if Ether's price falls below this level. Moreover, a further decline to $3,170 would result in the liquidation of over $329 million worth of short leverage across all exchanges.

其次，3,200美元的心理關口作為潛在支撐位具有重要意義。根據 Coinglass 的數據，如果以太幣價格跌破該水平，將觸發價值超過 9,700 萬美元的槓桿空頭部位的清算。此外，進一步跌至 3,170 美元將導致所有交易所價值超過 3.29 億美元的空頭槓桿被清算。

Ethereum Underperforms Bitcoin Year-to-Date

以太幣年初至今表現遜於比特幣

On a year-to-date basis, ETH has underperformed BTC in terms of US dollar value. BTC has experienced a surge of 49%, while ETH has risen by a more modest 36%. Over the past three months, BTC has outpaced ETH by an even wider margin, gaining 56% compared to ETH's 28%, as per data from Tradingview.

今年迄今為止，以美元價值計算，ETH 的表現不如 BTC。 BTC 上漲了 49%，而 ETH 則上漲了 36%。根據 Tradingview 的數據，在過去三個月中，BTC 的漲幅更大，漲幅為 56%，而 ETH 則為 28%。

Market Outlook: Time to Buy ETH?

市場展望：是時候購買 ETH 了？

The last time the ETH/BTC ratio hovered around 0.048 BTC was in early May 2021, preceding a two-month decline in ETH's price, with a drop of 2.5% in May and a further 15% to $2,276 by the end of June 2021.

ETH/BTC 比率上一次徘徊在 0.048 BTC 左右是在 2021 年 5 月上旬，之後 ETH 價格連續兩個月下跌，5 月份下跌 2.5%，到 2021 年 6 月底進一步下跌 15% 至 2,276 美元。

However, analysts are optimistic about Ether's prospects, citing the recent approval of Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong as a catalyst for a potential rally. Andrey Stoychev, head of Prime Brokerage at Nexo, believes that the confluence of factors, including Bitcoin's upcoming block rewards halving and low Ether balances on exchanges, could attract investor interest in ETH.

然而，分析師對以太幣的前景持樂觀態度，稱比特幣和以太幣交易所交易基金（ETF）最近在香港獲得批准是潛在反彈的催化劑。 Nexo 大宗經紀業務主管安德烈·斯托伊切夫(Andrey Stoychev) 認為，包括比特幣即將到來的區塊獎勵減半和交易所以太幣餘額較低等因素的綜合作用，可能會吸引投資者對ETH 的興趣。

"In light of this market situation, it could be argued that Ether could perform a sharp, idiosyncratic catch-up," Stoychev stated.

Stoychev 表示：“鑑於這種市場形勢，可以說以太坊可能會實現急劇的、特殊的追趕。”

Furthermore, Stoychev suggests that current Ether price levels present a favorable buying opportunity: "Even at current rates, market participants could buy ETH for both a short-term catch-up play, as well as a longer-term trade given all the potential developments."

此外，Stoychev 表示，當前的 ETH 價格水平提供了有利的購買機會：“即使按照目前的價格，市場參與者也可以購買 ETH，以進行短期追趕，也可以考慮到所有潛在的發展，進行長期交易” 。

Institutional Adoption as Key Catalyst

機構採用是關鍵催化劑

Jonathan Caras, head of communication at Levana perpetual futures protocol, highlights the spotlight on Bitcoin ETFs and high transaction costs on the Ethereum network as factors that have overshadowed Ether in recent times. To regain momentum, Caras believes Ether will require a significant catalyst, such as an Ethereum ETF or other initiatives promoting institutional adoption.

Levana 永續期貨協議通訊主管 Jonathan Caras 強調，比特幣 ETF 和以太坊網路的高交易成本是近來令以太幣黯然失色的因素。 Caras 認為，為了重獲動力，以太坊將需要一個重要的催化劑，例如以太坊 ETF 或其他促進機構採用的舉措。

"Ethereum will need a catalyst to catch up, either from its own ETF or some other method of promoting institutional adoption in order to reverse the downward relative trend."

「以太坊將需要一個催化劑來迎頭趕上，要么來自其自己的 ETF，要么來自其他促進機構採用的方法，以扭轉相對下降的趨勢。”

Disclaimer: This article does not provide financial advice or recommendations. Investing and trading involve risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

免責聲明：本文不提供財務建議或建議。投資和交易涉及風險，個人在做出投資決定之前應進行自己的研究。