尽管近期 BTC 下跌，但以太币仍有望迎来潜在的上涨趋势

以太坊（ETH）相对于比特币（BTC）的价值接近三年低点。然而，技术指标暗示了潜在的上涨，分析师预计 ETH/BTC 货币对将会上涨。尽管自转向权益证明以来价值翻了一番，但自合并以来 ETH/BTC 已下跌 33%。最近的价格下跌已使该货币对跌至 2021 年以来的最低水平。关键技术指标显示超卖状况，呈现潜在的买入机会。

Ether Poised for Potential Upswing Despite Recent Slump Against Bitcoin

尽管近期兑比特币暴跌，但以太坊仍有望上涨

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed significant fluctuations in recent months, with Ether (ETH) experiencing a notable decline in its valuation against Bitcoin (BTC). However, amidst this downturn, several technical indicators suggest that ETH may be poised for a potential upswing, much to the anticipation of analysts.

近几个月来，加密货币市场出现了大幅波动，以太坊（ETH）相对于比特币（BTC）的估值显着下降。然而，在经济低迷的情况下，多项技术指标表明 ETH 可能会出现潜在的上涨，这在很大程度上出乎分析师的预期。

ETH Suffers Dip Against Bitcoin Post-Merge

合并后 ETH 兑比特币下跌

Since its transition to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in September 2022, ETH has exhibited a remarkable surge in value relative to the US dollar. However, when measured against BTC, a different picture emerges, showcasing a decline of approximately 33% following the Merge.

自 2022 年 9 月过渡到权益证明共识机制以来，ETH 相对于美元的价值出现了显着飙升。然而，当以 BTC 为衡量标准时，却出现了不同的情况，合并后下降了约 33%。

In recent weeks, ETH/BTC has continued its downward trajectory, shedding over 9% in the preceding month, plummeting to a low of 0.048 BTC. This represents the lowest point for the trading pair since May 2021, according to data from Tradingview.

最近几周，ETH/BTC 继续下跌，上个月下跌超过 9%，跌至 0.048 BTC 的低点。根据 Tradingview 的数据，这是该交易对自 2021 年 5 月以来的最低点。

Technical Indicators Hint at Potential Upswing

技术指标暗示潜在上涨

Despite the recent decline in ETH's valuation against BTC, several technical indicators are flashing bullish signals, hinting at a potential reversal of fortune.

尽管近期 ETH 相对于 BTC 的估值有所下降，但多项技术指标都闪烁着看涨信号，暗示着命运可能发生逆转。

Firstly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH/USD has dropped to 44 on the daily time frame, significantly below the overbought territory it occupied on March 11, when it stood at 85. This suggests that Ether is no longer considered overvalued and may be poised for a recovery.

首先，ETH/美元的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 在每日时间范围内已降至 44，远低于 3 月 11 日占据的超买区域（当时为 85）。这表明以太币不再被认为被高估，并且可能已做好复苏的准备。

Secondly, the $3,200 psychological mark bears significance as a potential support level. According to data from Coinglass, a liquidation of over $97 million worth of leveraged short positions would be triggered if Ether's price falls below this level. Moreover, a further decline to $3,170 would result in the liquidation of over $329 million worth of short leverage across all exchanges.

其次，3,200美元的心理关口作为潜在支撑位具有重要意义。根据 Coinglass 的数据，如果以太币价格跌破该水平，将触发价值超过 9700 万美元的杠杆空头头寸的清算。此外，进一步跌至 3,170 美元将导致所有交易所价值超过 3.29 亿美元的空头杠杆被清算。

Ethereum Underperforms Bitcoin Year-to-Date

以太坊年初至今表现逊于比特币

On a year-to-date basis, ETH has underperformed BTC in terms of US dollar value. BTC has experienced a surge of 49%, while ETH has risen by a more modest 36%. Over the past three months, BTC has outpaced ETH by an even wider margin, gaining 56% compared to ETH's 28%, as per data from Tradingview.

今年迄今为止，以美元价值计算，ETH 的表现不及 BTC。 BTC 上涨了 49%，而 ETH 则上涨了 36%。根据 Tradingview 的数据，在过去三个月中，BTC 的涨幅更大，涨幅为 56%，而 ETH 则为 28%。

Market Outlook: Time to Buy ETH?

市场展望：是时候购买 ETH 了？

The last time the ETH/BTC ratio hovered around 0.048 BTC was in early May 2021, preceding a two-month decline in ETH's price, with a drop of 2.5% in May and a further 15% to $2,276 by the end of June 2021.

ETH/BTC 比率上一次徘徊在 0.048 BTC 左右是在 2021 年 5 月上旬，之后 ETH 价格连续两个月下跌，5 月份下跌 2.5%，到 2021 年 6 月底进一步下跌 15% 至 2,276 美元。

However, analysts are optimistic about Ether's prospects, citing the recent approval of Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong as a catalyst for a potential rally. Andrey Stoychev, head of Prime Brokerage at Nexo, believes that the confluence of factors, including Bitcoin's upcoming block rewards halving and low Ether balances on exchanges, could attract investor interest in ETH.

然而，分析师对以太币的前景持乐观态度，称比特币和以太币交易所交易基金（ETF）最近在香港获得批准是潜在反弹的催化剂。 Nexo 大宗经纪业务主管安德烈·斯托伊切夫 (Andrey Stoychev) 认为，包括比特币即将到来的区块奖励减半和交易所以太币余额较低等因素的综合作用，可能会吸引投资者对 ETH 的兴趣。

"In light of this market situation, it could be argued that Ether could perform a sharp, idiosyncratic catch-up," Stoychev stated.

Stoychev 表示：“鉴于这种市场形势，可以说以太坊可能会实现急剧的、特殊的追赶。”

Furthermore, Stoychev suggests that current Ether price levels present a favorable buying opportunity: "Even at current rates, market participants could buy ETH for both a short-term catch-up play, as well as a longer-term trade given all the potential developments."

此外，Stoychev 表示，当前的 ETH 价格水平提供了有利的购买机会：“即使按照目前的价格，市场参与者也可以购买 ETH，以进行短期追赶，也可以考虑到所有潜在的发展，进行长期交易”。

Institutional Adoption as Key Catalyst

机构采用是关键催化剂

Jonathan Caras, head of communication at Levana perpetual futures protocol, highlights the spotlight on Bitcoin ETFs and high transaction costs on the Ethereum network as factors that have overshadowed Ether in recent times. To regain momentum, Caras believes Ether will require a significant catalyst, such as an Ethereum ETF or other initiatives promoting institutional adoption.

Levana 永续期货协议通讯主管 Jonathan Caras 强调，比特币 ETF 和以太坊网络的高交易成本是近来令以太币黯然失色的因素。 Caras 认为，为了重获动力，以太坊将需要一个重要的催化剂，例如以太坊 ETF 或其他促进机构采用的举措。

"Ethereum will need a catalyst to catch up, either from its own ETF or some other method of promoting institutional adoption in order to reverse the downward relative trend."

“以太坊将需要一个催化剂来迎头赶上，要么来自其自己的 ETF，要么来自其他促进机构采用的方法，以扭转相对下降的趋势。”

Disclaimer: This article does not provide financial advice or recommendations. Investing and trading involve risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

免责声明：本文不提供财务建议或建议。投资和交易涉及风险，个人在做出投资决定之前应进行自己的研究。