BTC 佔據主導地位，ETH 下跌：下跌背後的關鍵驅動因素

以太坊（ETH）最近一直在努力尋找動力，兌比特幣（BTC）穩步下跌。 Jump Trading 在 2024 年 8 月期間的拋售可能是關鍵因素

Ethereum (ETH) has encountered difficulties in recent times, displaying a steady decline against Bitcoin (BTC). This downtrend could be largely attributed to sell-offs by Jump Trading during Aug. 2024.

以太幣（ETH）最近遇到困難，兌比特幣（BTC）穩定下跌。這種下降趨勢主要歸因於 2024 年 8 月 Jump Trading 的拋售。

In his analysis, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe expressed his看法 on the ETH/BTC pair, describing the trading pair’s price chart as "disgusting."

在他的分析中，加密貨幣分析師 Michaël van de Poppe 表達了他對 ETH/BTC 貨幣對的看法，稱該交易對的價格圖表「令人噁心」。

Despite ongoing fundamental improvements, the weakening ETH/BTC ratio raises concerns about Ethereum’s long-term competitiveness against Bitcoin.

儘管基本面不斷改善，但 ETH/BTC 比率的疲軟引發了人們對以太坊相對於比特幣的長期競爭力的擔憂。

Key Drivers Behind ETH’s Lag and BTC’s Dominance

ETH 落後和 BTC 主導背後的關鍵驅動因素

The ETH/BTC pair has exhibited significant weakness over the past few weeks, highlighting Ethereum’s inability to outpace Bitcoin despite several developments within the Ethereum ecosystem.

過去幾週，ETH/BTC 貨幣對錶現出明顯的疲軟，凸顯出儘管以太坊生態系統取得了一些進展，但以太幣仍無法超越比特幣。

According to Michaël van de Poppe’s analysis, Ethereum has faced repeated rejection at critical resistance levels, notably around 0.04622 BTC and 0.05151 BTC. These areas have acted as strong ceilings, with sellers stepping in each time ETH approaches these zones.

根據 Michaël van de Poppe 的分析，以太坊在關鍵阻力位多次遭到拒絕，特別是在 0.04622 BTC 和 0.05151 BTC 附近。這些區域充當了強大的天花板，每當 ETH 接近這些區域時，賣家就會介入。

Despite various fundamental improvements in the Ethereum ecosystem, the market remains unconvinced of ETH’s ability to break out. The pair is now testing a significant support zone near 0.0400 BTC, and failure to hold this level could lead to deeper declines.

儘管以太坊生態系統取得了各種根本性的改進，但市場仍然不相信以太坊的突破能力。該貨幣對目前正在測試 0.0400 BTC 附近的重要支撐區域，如果未能守住該水平可能會導致進一步下跌。

Moreover, the declining ETH/BTC pair signals a broader market trend where Bitcoin is consolidating its dominance, possibly driven by upcoming macroeconomic events.

此外，ETH/BTC 貨幣對的下跌標誌著更廣泛的市場趨勢，即比特幣正在鞏固其主導地位，這可能是受到即將到來的宏觀經濟事件的推動。

Furthermore, institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown, as evidenced by the massive inflow in BTC investment vehicles. Bitcoin’s $1.07 billion weekly inflows overshadow Ethereum’s $86.9 million, showing Bitcoin’s continued investor preference.

此外，機構對比特幣的興趣不斷增長，比特幣投資工具的大量流入證明了這一點。比特幣每週流入量為 10.7 億美元，超過了以太坊的 8,690 萬美元，這表明比特幣仍受到投資者的青睞。

While Bitcoin’s month-to-date (MTD) flows stand at $1.15 billion, Ethereum faces a significant outflow of $60.3 million. It seems market participants view Bitcoin as a safer bet during volatile periods while Ethereum struggles to retain investor confidence.

雖然比特幣的月至今 (MTD) 流量為 11.5 億美元，但以太坊面臨 6,030 萬美元的大幅流出。市場參與者似乎認為比特幣在波動時期是更安全的選擇，而以太坊則難以維持投資者的信心。

The global macro cues, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have added complexity to the crypto markets, with risk-off sentiment favoring Bitcoin over Ethereum.

全球宏觀因素，包括通膨擔憂和中東地緣政治緊張局勢，增加了加密貨幣市場的複雜性，避險情緒更有利於比特幣而不是以太幣。

Michaël van de Poppe also highlighted the importance of Ethereum holding its support levels. If ETH breaks below 0.0400 BTC, it could signal further downside, leading to increased selling pressure and deeper corrections.

Michaël van de Poppe 也強調了以太坊保持其支撐位的重要性。如果 ETH 跌破 0.0400 BTC，則可能預示著進一步下跌，導致拋售壓力增加和更深層的調整。

ETH USD Pair Forms Bullish Setup

ETH 美元貨幣對形成看漲格局

While the ETH BTC pair is not feeling so hot, the ETH USD pair has formed a bullish technical setup called the ‘falling wedge.’

雖然 ETH BTC 貨幣對感覺不那麼熱，但 ETH USD 貨幣對已經形成了一種看漲的技術結構，稱為「下降楔形」。

A potential bottom in Ethereum’s price in ETH/BTC could lead to ETH outperforming Bitcoin. The ETH USD pair has also formed a bullish wedge pattern, the theoretical target of which could set a new ATH for the token.

以太坊 ETH/BTC 價格的潛在底部可能導致 ETH 跑贏比特幣。 ETH USD 貨幣對也形成了看漲楔形形態，其理論目標可能會為該代幣設定新的 ATH。

A falling wedge pattern features a pair of converging trend lines connecting lower highs and lower lows, forming a narrowing shape that slopes downward.

下降楔形形態的特徵是有一對會聚的趨勢線，連接較低的高點和較低的低點，形成向下傾斜的收窄形狀。

The pattern indicates that an asset’s price while consolidating in a downtrend, is losing bearish momentum and preparing for a potential reversal to the upside. Typically, a breakout occurs upward, in line with the overall trend.

該模式表明，資產價格在下跌趨勢中盤整的同時，正在失去看跌勢頭，並為潛在的上行逆轉做好準備。通常，突破會向上發生，與整體趨勢一致。

To estimate the price target, traders measure the widest part of the wedge at the beginning and project this distance upward from the breakout point. Moreover, a higher trading volume during the breakout confirms the reliability of the reversal, indicating stronger market conviction and a higher likelihood of success.

為了估計價格目標，交易者在開始時測量楔形的最寬部分，並從突破點向上預測這個距離。此外，突破期間的交易量增加證實了反轉的可靠性，顯示市場信念更強，成功的可能性更高。

According to technical analysis rules, the ETH-to-USD conversion rate might rally nearly 127% from its current level to reach the pattern’s projected target of nearly $5,400.

根據技術分析規則，ETH 兌美元匯率可能會從目前水準上漲近 127%，達到該模式的預期目標近 5,400 美元。