BTC 占据主导地位，ETH 下跌：下跌背后的关键驱动因素

以太坊（ETH）最近一直在努力寻找动力，兑比特币（BTC）稳步下跌。 Jump Trading 在 2024 年 8 月期间的抛售可能是一个关键因素

Ethereum (ETH) has encountered difficulties in recent times, displaying a steady decline against Bitcoin (BTC). This downtrend could be largely attributed to sell-offs by Jump Trading during Aug. 2024.

以太坊（ETH）最近遇到困难，兑比特币（BTC）稳步下跌。这种下降趋势主要归因于 2024 年 8 月 Jump Trading 的抛售。

In his analysis, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe expressed his看法 on the ETH/BTC pair, describing the trading pair’s price chart as "disgusting."

在他的分析中，加密货币分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 表达了他对 ETH/BTC 货币对的看法，称该交易对的价格图表“令人恶心”。

Despite ongoing fundamental improvements, the weakening ETH/BTC ratio raises concerns about Ethereum’s long-term competitiveness against Bitcoin.

尽管基本面不断改善，但 ETH/BTC 比率的疲软引发了人们对以太坊相对于比特币的长期竞争力的担忧。

Key Drivers Behind ETH’s Lag and BTC’s Dominance

ETH 落后和 BTC 主导背后的关键驱动因素

The ETH/BTC pair has exhibited significant weakness over the past few weeks, highlighting Ethereum’s inability to outpace Bitcoin despite several developments within the Ethereum ecosystem.

过去几周，ETH/BTC 货币对表现出明显的疲软，凸显出尽管以太坊生态系统取得了一些进展，但以太坊仍无法超越比特币。

According to Michaël van de Poppe’s analysis, Ethereum has faced repeated rejection at critical resistance levels, notably around 0.04622 BTC and 0.05151 BTC. These areas have acted as strong ceilings, with sellers stepping in each time ETH approaches these zones.

根据 Michaël van de Poppe 的分析，以太坊在关键阻力位反复遭遇拒绝，特别是在 0.04622 BTC 和 0.05151 BTC 附近。这些区域充当了强大的天花板，每当 ETH 接近这些区域时，卖家就会介入。

Despite various fundamental improvements in the Ethereum ecosystem, the market remains unconvinced of ETH’s ability to break out. The pair is now testing a significant support zone near 0.0400 BTC, and failure to hold this level could lead to deeper declines.

尽管以太坊生态系统取得了各种根本性的改进，但市场仍然不相信以太坊的突破能力。该货币对目前正在测试 0.0400 BTC 附近的重要支撑区域，如果未能守住该水平可能会导致进一步下跌。

Moreover, the declining ETH/BTC pair signals a broader market trend where Bitcoin is consolidating its dominance, possibly driven by upcoming macroeconomic events.

此外，ETH/BTC 货币对的下跌标志着更广泛的市场趋势，即比特币正在巩固其主导地位，这可能是受到即将到来的宏观经济事件的推动。

Furthermore, institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown, as evidenced by the massive inflow in BTC investment vehicles. Bitcoin’s $1.07 billion weekly inflows overshadow Ethereum’s $86.9 million, showing Bitcoin’s continued investor preference.

此外，机构对比特币的兴趣不断增长，比特币投资工具的大量流入就证明了这一点。比特币每周流入量为 10.7 亿美元，超过了以太坊的 8690 万美元，这表明比特币仍受到投资者的青睐。

While Bitcoin’s month-to-date (MTD) flows stand at $1.15 billion, Ethereum faces a significant outflow of $60.3 million. It seems market participants view Bitcoin as a safer bet during volatile periods while Ethereum struggles to retain investor confidence.

虽然比特币的月至今 (MTD) 流量为 11.5 亿美元，但以太坊面临 6030 万美元的大幅流出。市场参与者似乎认为比特币在波动时期是更安全的选择，而以太坊则难以保持投资者的信心。

The global macro cues, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have added complexity to the crypto markets, with risk-off sentiment favoring Bitcoin over Ethereum.

全球宏观因素，包括通胀担忧和中东地缘政治紧张局势，增加了加密货币市场的复杂性，避险情绪更有利于比特币而不是以太坊。

Michaël van de Poppe also highlighted the importance of Ethereum holding its support levels. If ETH breaks below 0.0400 BTC, it could signal further downside, leading to increased selling pressure and deeper corrections.

Michaël van de Poppe 还强调了以太坊保持其支撑位的重要性。如果 ETH 跌破 0.0400 BTC，则可能预示着进一步下跌，导致抛售压力增加和更深层次的调整。

ETH USD Pair Forms Bullish Setup

ETH 美元货币对形成看涨格局

While the ETH BTC pair is not feeling so hot, the ETH USD pair has formed a bullish technical setup called the ‘falling wedge.’

虽然 ETH BTC 货币对感觉不那么热，但 ETH USD 货币对已经形成了一种看涨的技术结构，称为“下降楔形”。

A potential bottom in Ethereum’s price in ETH/BTC could lead to ETH outperforming Bitcoin. The ETH USD pair has also formed a bullish wedge pattern, the theoretical target of which could set a new ATH for the token.

以太坊 ETH/BTC 价格的潜在底部可能导致 ETH 跑赢比特币。 ETH USD 货币对也形成了看涨楔形形态，其理论目标可能会为该代币设定新的 ATH。

A falling wedge pattern features a pair of converging trend lines connecting lower highs and lower lows, forming a narrowing shape that slopes downward.

下降楔形形态的特点是有一对会聚的趋势线，连接较低的高点和较低的低点，形成向下倾斜的收窄形状。

The pattern indicates that an asset’s price while consolidating in a downtrend, is losing bearish momentum and preparing for a potential reversal to the upside. Typically, a breakout occurs upward, in line with the overall trend.

该模式表明，资产价格在下跌趋势中盘整的同时，正在失去看跌势头，并为潜在的上行逆转做好准备。通常，突破会向上发生，与整体趋势一致。

To estimate the price target, traders measure the widest part of the wedge at the beginning and project this distance upward from the breakout point. Moreover, a higher trading volume during the breakout confirms the reliability of the reversal, indicating stronger market conviction and a higher likelihood of success.

为了估计价格目标，交易者在开始时测量楔形的最宽部分，并从突破点向上预测这个距离。此外，突破期间的交易量增加证实了反转的可靠性，表明市场信念更强，成功的可能性更高。

According to technical analysis rules, the ETH-to-USD conversion rate might rally nearly 127% from its current level to reach the pattern’s projected target of nearly $5,400.

根据技术分析规则，ETH 兑美元汇率可能会从当前水平上涨近 127%，达到该模式的预计目标近 5,400 美元。