Eugene Ng Ah Sio 預測 ETH 將在 2025 年第一季成為表現最佳的主流代幣

12月29日，加密貨幣界極具影響力的交易員Eugene Ng Ah Sio發布了對第一季的展望和預期

Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a highly influential trader in the cryptocurrency community, recently shared his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025 on X, predicting that ETH will become the best performing mainstream token in the next quarter.

加密貨幣界極具影響力的交易員Eugene Ng Ah Sio近日在X上分享了他對2025年第一季的展望和預期，預計ETH將成為下一季表現最好的主流代幣。

According to Eugene, there are three main reasons to be bullish on ETH. First, the technical trends are favorable. Second, Trump is showing a lot of favor towards ETH (especially WLF's massive purchase of the Ethereum ecosystem). Third, the development of the Base ecosystem is proceeding smoothly.

尤金認為，看好 ETH 有三個主要原因。首先，科技趨勢向好。其次，川普對ETH表現出了很大的青睞（尤其是WLF對以太坊生態系統的大量收購）。三是Base生態建設進展順利。

In another article, Eugene also pointed out that since Trump's victory, the inflow of funds into the Ethereum spot ETF has undergone a 180-degree turn.

尤金在另一篇文章中也指出，自川普獲勝以來，資金流入以太幣現貨ETF的情況發生了180度大轉彎。

ETF fund movements: Is Ethereum more favored?

ETF基金走勢：以太坊更受青睞嗎？

Eugene's statement is not an exaggeration. SoSoValue data shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, the inflow of funds into the spot Ethereum ETF has increased significantly, and the growth trend during the same period has even exceeded that of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

尤金的說法並不誇張。 SoSoValue數據顯示，自11月6日川普獲勝以來，流入以太坊現貨ETF的資金大幅增加，同期成長趨勢甚至超過了比特幣現貨ETF。

Entering late December, this trend has become more obvious.

進入12月下旬，這趨勢更加明顯。

SoSoValue data shows that the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of US$349 million last week (December 23 to December 27, Eastern Time); while the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of US$388 million during the same period - this obvious difference in capital movements may indicate better expectations for ETH in the future.

SoSoValue數據顯示，以太幣現貨ETF上週淨流入3.49億美元（東部時間12月23日至12月27日）；而比特幣現貨ETF同期淨流出3.88億美元——這種明顯的資金動向差異可能預示著未來對ETH的更好預期。

As of the time of writing, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for this Monday has not yet been fully released, but according to Lookonchain's on-chain monitoring, yesterday the ten US Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,000 BTC (US$275.59 million); the nine Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of 16,359 ETH (US$54.33 million), and the trend seems to remain unchanged.

截至發稿，本週一官方 ETF 流入/流出數據尚未完全出爐，但根據 Lookonchain 鏈上監測，昨日美國 10 只比特幣 ETF 淨流出 3000 BTC（2.7559 億美元） ）； 9隻以太坊ETF淨流入16,359 ETH（5,433萬美元），趨勢似乎保持不變。

Trump concept family bucket

川普概念全家桶

In addition to the ETF liquidity data, another reason supporting ETH's expectations is the continued building of positions in the Trump family project WLFI.

除了ETF流動性數據外，支撐ETH預期的另一個原因是川普家族計畫WLFI的持續建倉。

In the past period of time, WLFI has successively purchased multiple Ethereum ecological tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, etc., but the project's largest holding is still ETH.

過去一段時間，WLFI陸續購買了AAVE、LINK、ENA、ONDO等多個以太坊生態代幣，但專案方最大持股量仍是ETH。

Although this is somewhat related to the fact that WIFI itself is deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase "The president is already in the car, what are you still hesitating about" still has a strong FOMO effect.

雖然這與以太坊生態本身部署WIFI有一定關係，但「總統已經在車裡了，你還在猶豫什麼」這句話仍然具有很強的FOMO效應。

Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat itself?

回顧歷史數據，劇本會重演嗎？

Coinglass data shows that ETH performed best in the first quarter of the new year after the historical US election and Bitcoin halving cycle, especially in the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2021, when ETH rose by 518% and 161% respectively, even exceeding BTC's returns in these two quarters (11.9% and 103.2%).

Coinglass數據顯示，在歷史性的美國大選和比特幣減半週期之後，ETH在新年第一季表現最佳，尤其是在2017年第一季和2021年第一季度，ETH分別上漲了518%和161%，甚至超過了BTC這兩個季度的回報率（11.9%和103.2%）。

If history repeats itself, ETH may see a significant rise in Q1 next year.

如果歷史重演，ETH 可能會在明年 Q1 出現大幅上漲。

Potential Beta Selection

潛在的 Beta 選擇

If ETH can really rise as expected, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become Beta options with higher risk/return, such as:

如果ETH真的能如預期上漲，一些以太幣生態代幣可能會成為風險/回報更高的Beta選項，例如：

Odaily Note: The above tokens are only a list of specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.

Odaily註：以上代幣僅羅列具體板塊與概念，不構成投資建議。

Counterpoint

對位法

Although many well-known investors/traders including Eugene have clearly been bullish on ETH, there are also voices that are pessimistic about ETH's future performance.

儘管包括尤金在內的許多知名投資者/交易員都明顯看好ETH，但也有對ETH未來表現持悲觀態度的聲音。

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario, predicting that ETH will continue to underperform and fail to hit new all-time highs in a "hawkish" macro environment in 2025: "We expect a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policy may be tested by a weakening liquidity tailwind."

10x Research 創辦人Markus Thielen 描繪了更悲觀的情景，他預測2025 年ETH 將繼續表現不佳，無法在「鷹派」宏觀環境下創下新的歷史高點：「我們預計ETH 的前景將更加保守。

At a time when the market is volatile, the forecasts given by all parties are merely "one-sided conclusions" based on the conditions and indicators they are concerned about. No one can predict the future, so remember to DYOR before you take action.

在市場劇烈波動的情況下，各方根據自己關心的狀況和指標給出的預測只是「片面結論」。沒有人能夠預測未來，因此在採取行動之前請記住 DYOR。