Eugene Ng Ah Sio 预测 ETH 将在 2025 年第一季度成为表现最佳的主流代币

12月29日，加密货币界极具影响力的交易员Eugene Ng Ah Sio发布了对第一季度的展望和预期

Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a highly influential trader in the cryptocurrency community, recently shared his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025 on X, predicting that ETH will become the best performing mainstream token in the next quarter.

加密货币界极具影响力的交易员Eugene Ng Ah Sio近日在X上分享了他对2025年第一季度的展望和预期，预计ETH将成为下一季度表现最好的主流代币。

According to Eugene, there are three main reasons to be bullish on ETH. First, the technical trends are favorable. Second, Trump is showing a lot of favor towards ETH (especially WLF's massive purchase of the Ethereum ecosystem). Third, the development of the Base ecosystem is proceeding smoothly.

尤金认为，看好 ETH 有三个主要原因。首先，技术趋势向好。其次，特朗普对ETH表现出了很大的青睐（尤其是WLF对以太坊生态系统的大量收购）。三是Base生态建设进展顺利。

In another article, Eugene also pointed out that since Trump's victory, the inflow of funds into the Ethereum spot ETF has undergone a 180-degree turn.

尤金在另一篇文章中还指出，自特朗普获胜以来，资金流入以太坊现货ETF的情况发生了180度大转弯。

ETF fund movements: Is Ethereum more favored?

ETF基金走势：以太坊更受青睐吗？

Eugene's statement is not an exaggeration. SoSoValue data shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, the inflow of funds into the spot Ethereum ETF has increased significantly, and the growth trend during the same period has even exceeded that of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

尤金的说法并不夸张。 SoSoValue数据显示，自11月6日特朗普获胜以来，流入以太坊现货ETF的资金大幅增加，同期增长趋势甚至超过了比特币现货ETF。

Entering late December, this trend has become more obvious.

进入12月下旬，这一趋势更加明显。

SoSoValue data shows that the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of US$349 million last week (December 23 to December 27, Eastern Time); while the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of US$388 million during the same period - this obvious difference in capital movements may indicate better expectations for ETH in the future.

SoSoValue数据显示，以太坊现货ETF上周净流入3.49亿美元（东部时间12月23日至12月27日）；而比特币现货ETF同期净流出3.88亿美元——这种明显的资金动向差异可能预示着未来对ETH的更好预期。

As of the time of writing, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for this Monday has not yet been fully released, but according to Lookonchain's on-chain monitoring, yesterday the ten US Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,000 BTC (US$275.59 million); the nine Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of 16,359 ETH (US$54.33 million), and the trend seems to remain unchanged.

截至发稿，本周一官方 ETF 流入/流出数据尚未完全出炉，但根据 Lookonchain 链上监测，昨日美国 10 只比特币 ETF 净流出 3000 BTC（2.7559 亿美元） ）； 9只以太坊ETF净流入16,359 ETH（5433万美元），趋势似乎保持不变。

Trump concept family bucket

特朗普概念全家桶

In addition to the ETF liquidity data, another reason supporting ETH's expectations is the continued building of positions in the Trump family project WLFI.

除了ETF流动性数据外，支撑ETH预期的另一个原因是特朗普家族项目WLFI的持续建仓。

In the past period of time, WLFI has successively purchased multiple Ethereum ecological tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, etc., but the project's largest holding is still ETH.

过去一段时间，WLFI陆续购买了AAVE、LINK、ENA、ONDO等多个以太坊生态代币，但项目方最大持仓量仍是ETH。

Although this is somewhat related to the fact that WIFI itself is deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase "The president is already in the car, what are you still hesitating about" still has a strong FOMO effect.

虽然这与以太坊生态本身部署WIFI有一定关系，但“总统已经在车里了，你还在犹豫什么”这句话仍然具有很强的FOMO效应。

Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat itself?

回顾历史数据，剧本会重演吗？

Coinglass data shows that ETH performed best in the first quarter of the new year after the historical US election and Bitcoin halving cycle, especially in the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2021, when ETH rose by 518% and 161% respectively, even exceeding BTC's returns in these two quarters (11.9% and 103.2%).

Coinglass数据显示，在历史性的美国大选和比特币减半周期之后，ETH在新年第一季度表现最佳，尤其是在2017年第一季度和2021年第一季度，ETH分别上涨了518%和161%，甚至超过了BTC这两个季度的回报率（11.9%和103.2%）。

If history repeats itself, ETH may see a significant rise in Q1 next year.

如果历史重演，ETH 可能会在明年 Q1 出现大幅上涨。

Potential Beta Selection

潜在的 Beta 选择

If ETH can really rise as expected, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become Beta options with higher risk/return, such as:

如果ETH真的能如预期上涨，一些以太坊生态代币可能会成为风险/回报更高的Beta选项，比如：

Odaily Note: The above tokens are only a list of specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.

Odaily注：以上代币仅罗列具体板块和概念，不构成投资建议。

Counterpoint

对位法

Although many well-known investors/traders including Eugene have clearly been bullish on ETH, there are also voices that are pessimistic about ETH's future performance.

尽管包括尤金在内的许多知名投资者/交易员都明显看好ETH，但也有对ETH未来表现持悲观态度的声音。

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario, predicting that ETH will continue to underperform and fail to hit new all-time highs in a "hawkish" macro environment in 2025: "We expect a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policy may be tested by a weakening liquidity tailwind."

10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 描绘了更为悲观的情景，预测 2025 年 ETH 将继续表现不佳，无法在“鹰派”宏观环境下创下新的历史高点：“我们预计 ETH 的前景将更加保守。 2025年。与往年不同，最初的鹰派政策可能会受到流动性顺风减弱的考验。”

At a time when the market is volatile, the forecasts given by all parties are merely "one-sided conclusions" based on the conditions and indicators they are concerned about. No one can predict the future, so remember to DYOR before you take action.

在市场剧烈波动的情况下，各方根据自己关心的状况和指标给出的预测只是“片面结论”。没有人能够预测未来，因此在采取行动之前请记住 DYOR。