根據資金費率和關鍵市場指標解讀比特幣的下一步走勢

比特幣在本週早些時候達到 109,000 美元以上的歷史新高 (ATH) 後，目前似乎正在喘口氣。截至目前，該資產已

After reaching a new all-time high (ATH) above $109,000 earlier this week, Bitcoin appears to be pausing for breath. So far this week, the asset has seen a slightly reduced upward momentum with the price hovering just above $104,000.

在本週早些時候達到 109,000 美元以上的歷史新高 (ATH) 後，比特幣似乎暫停了喘息。本周到目前為止，該資產的上漲勢頭略有減弱，價格徘徊在 104,000 美元上方。

However, despite the slowing upward momentum, Bitcoin’s recent performance has prompted renewed interest in the market. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci recently shared his insights into Bitcoin’s price behavior and key market indicators, shedding light on potential future moves.

然而，儘管上漲勢頭放緩，比特幣近期的表現還是引發了市場的新興趣。 CryptoQuant 分析師 Burak Kesmeci 最近分享了他對比特幣價格行為和關鍵市場指標的見解，揭示了未來潛在的趨勢。

In a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake Platform, Kesmeci’s analysis focused on Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates, a metric that provides notable clues about market sentiment and dynamics.

在 CryptoQuant QuickTake 平台最近發表的一篇文章中，Kesmeci 的分析重點是幣安比特幣融資利率，該指標提供了有關市場情緒和動態的重要線索。

By reviewing historical data from previous bull cycles, he identified three distinct phases that can serve as a framework for interpreting the current market environment.

透過回顧先前牛市週期的歷史數據，他確定了三個不同的階段，可以作為解釋當前市場環境的框架。

According to Kesmeci, during the 2020-2021 bull run, Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates moved through three distinct phases:

據 Kesmeci 稱，在 2020 年至 2021 年牛市期間，幣安比特幣融資利率經歷了三個不同的階段：

Phase 1 (July 2020): Funding rates remained stable at 0.01 for several weeks before a surge in demand pushed them up. This phase acted as the “calm before the storm,” with Bitcoin rising from $9,000 to $12,000 as funding rates increased to 0.10.

第一階段（2020 年 7 月）：融資利率連續幾週穩定在 0.01，之後需求激增推高融資利率。這一階段相當於“暴風雨前的寧靜”，隨著資金費率升至 0.10，比特幣從 9,000 美元上漲至 12,000 美元。

Phase 2 (November 2020): After an initial rally, Bitcoin experienced a correction. Funding rates briefly turned negative before flipping positive again, supporting Bitcoin's climb from $12,000 to $19,000.

第二階段（2020 年 11 月）：在最初的反彈之後，比特幣經歷了回檔。資金利率短暫轉為負值，然後再次轉為正值，支撐比特幣從 12,000 美元攀升至 19,000 美元。

Phase 3 (December 2020): As Bitcoin crossed its previous highs and surged past the $60,000 mark, funding rates climbed significantly, indicating strong market support.

第三階段（2020年12月）：隨著比特幣突破前期高點並飆升至6萬美元大關，資金費率大幅攀升，顯示市場支撐強勁。

Currently, Kesmeci notes that Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates are at the baseline level of 0.01—consistent with the early stages of a bull cycle. The analyst noted, “Analyzing recent data, I believe we’ve completed the first two phases of this bull cycle. For the third phase, I’ll be watching closely to see if the Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates manage to climb above 0.01.”

目前，Kesmeci 指出，幣安比特幣融資利率處於 0.01 的基線水平，與牛市週期的早期階段一致。這位分析師指出，「分析最近的數據，我相信我們已經完成了本輪牛市週期的前兩個階段。對於第三階段，我將密切關注幣安比特幣融資利率是否能夠攀升至 0.01 以上。

The analyst mentioned that a sustained rise above the 0.01 level would suggest heightened futures market activity and could lead to another significant upward move.

該分析師提到，持續上漲至 0.01 水平以上將表明期貨市場活動加劇，並可能導致另一次大幅上漲。

However, Kesmeci also cautions that elevated funding rates are often unsustainable, and markets tend to correct through “long squeeze” events that restore balance.

然而，凱斯梅奇也警告說，融資利率的增加往往是不可持續的，市場往往會透過「多頭擠壓」事件來恢復平衡。

Key Metrics And Divergences In The Market

市場的關鍵指標和差異

In a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst, TraderOasis, explored several critical metrics, including the Coinbase Premium Index, open interest, and funding rates, to assess Bitcoin’s market health and potential direction.

在另一項分析中，另一位 CryptoQuant 分析師 TraderOasis 探討了幾個關鍵指標，包括 Coinbase 溢價指數、未平倉合約和融資利率，以評估比特幣的市場健康狀況和潛在方向。

TraderOasis highlighted a divergence between the Coinbase Premium Index and Bitcoin’s price movement. While the asset reached a new peak above $109,000, the Coinbase Premium Index formed a lower high. This lack of alignment raised concerns about the sustainability of the current price trend.

TraderOasis 強調了 Coinbase 溢價指數和比特幣價格趨勢之間的差異。雖然該資產達到 109,000 美元以上的新高，但 Coinbase 溢價指數卻形成了較低的高點。這種不一致引發了人們對當前價格趨勢可持續性的擔憂。

Furthermore, a divergence between open interest and price also suggested that the market might lack the robust foundation needed for continued upward momentum. According to TraderOasis, a healthy uptrend requires these metrics to be more closely aligned, which would signal strong investor confidence and a stable market structure.

此外，未平倉合約與價格之間的背離也表明市場可能缺乏持續上漲動力所需的堅實基礎。根據 TraderOasis 的說法，健康的上升趨勢需要這些指標更緊密地結合，這將表明投資者信心強勁且市場結構穩定。

Finally, the analysis also touched upon funding rates, indicating a recent bearish sentiment among traders. However, TraderOasis noted that such conditions often precede sharp price movements.

最後，分析也涉及融資利率，顯示交易員近期出現看跌情緒。然而，TraderOasis 指出，這種情況往往先於價格大幅波動。

The analysis suggested the possibility of an initial upward spike to shake out bearish positions, followed by a subsequent pullback. This pattern, if realized, could set the stage for a more sustainable long-term uptrend.

分析表明，最初的上漲可能會擺脫看跌頭寸，隨後出現回調。這種模式如果實現，可能會為更永續的長期上升趨勢奠定基礎。