達萬特亞當斯交易：噴射機季後賽賠率有所提高，但在重磅交易之後仍然是一個硬幣翻轉

週二上午的重磅交易將達萬特·亞當斯從拉斯維加斯突襲者隊送到紐約噴氣機隊，這基本上使格林岡的季後賽賠率變成了拋硬幣。

The Las Vegas Raiders traded Davante Adams to the New York Jets on Tuesday morning in a blockbuster move that has essentially turned Gang Green’s playoff odds into a coin flip.

週二早上，拉斯維加斯突襲者隊將達萬特·亞當斯交易到紐約噴氣機隊，這一轟動一時的舉動基本上使格林岡的季後賽賠率變成了拋硬幣。

Actually, a coin flip would be slightly more preferable.

事實上，拋硬幣會更可取。

At 2-4 and coming off a third consecutive loss, New York entered Tuesday morning with +165 odds to make the playoffs at BetMGM. Just a few hours later, after sending a conditional third-round pick to Vegas for Adams, the Jets’ odds are now… +140.

紐約隊以 2 勝 4 負的戰績結束了連續第三場失利，週二早上在 BetMGM 上以 +165 的賠率進入季後賽。僅僅幾個小時後，在將有條件的第三輪選秀權送到維加斯換取亞當斯後，噴射機的賠率現在是…+140。

That’s an implied probability of 41.67%.

隱含機率為 41.67%。

For comparison, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Jets a slightly better chance to make the postseason at 46 percent. Either way, the message is clear: the Jets made this move just a little too late to draw much concern from oddsmakers.

相比之下，ESPN 的足球實力指數顯示噴射機隊進入季後賽的機會稍好一些，為 46%。不管怎樣，訊息很明確：噴射機隊的這一舉動有點太晚了，不足以引起賠率制定者的太多關注。

New York’s odds to win the Super Bowl did get slightly shorter after the deal, moving from +3500 to +3000 at BetMGM, but that’s simply an implied probability change of 2.78 percent chance to 3.23 percent.

交易完成後，紐約贏得超級盃的賠率確實略有下降，在 BetMGM 上從 +3500 降至 +3000，但這只是隱含的機率變化，從 2.78% 變為 3.23%。

The Jets now have the same odds to win the Super Bowl as the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons, which is not a phrase any three of those teams would have enjoyed hearing before the season.

噴射機隊現在贏得超級盃的幾率與辛辛那提猛虎隊和亞特蘭大獵鷹隊相同，這不是這三支球隊在賽季前願意聽到的一句話。

What the Jets do have in their favor, however, is a particularly soft remaining schedule — the sixth-easiest in the league per Tankathon. The bad news is that each of their AFC East rivals is ranked with an easier schedule than New York right now.

然而，噴射機隊確實對他們有利的是剩餘的賽程特別寬鬆——每場坦克馬拉鬆在聯盟中排名第六。壞消息是，他們的亞冠東區對手現在的賽程都比紐約隊輕鬆。

It’s not impossible for the Jets to pull off a midseason turnaround, but oddsmakers don’t seem particularly concerned it’s going to happen. Even as Adams reunites with Aaron Rodgers.

噴射機隊在賽季中期實現逆轉並非不可能，但賠率制定者似乎並不特別擔心這種情況會發生。即使亞當斯與亞倫羅傑斯重聚。