加密市場四年牛市週期會被打破嗎？

前幾天，很多人還在爭論比特幣要跌到8萬美元了，不過似乎這兩天，大家都開始了

Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside: Will 2025 Still Have an Altcoin Season?

談李談外：2025年還會有山寨幣季節嗎？

A few days ago, many people were still arguing that Bitcoin would drop to $80,000, but it seems that in the past couple of days, everyone has started to turn bullish again, calling for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 or even $200,000. The change in sentiment among everyone is faster than a weather forecast.

前幾天，很多人還在爭論比特幣會跌到8萬美元，但似乎這兩天，大家又開始看太多了，呼籲比特幣能達到15萬美元甚至20萬美元。每個人情緒的變化比天氣預報還要快。

In the previous article (January 16), we discussed the Onchain Economy ETF and reviewed some recent favorable directions and factors for the market. Less than a day later, Trump started "promoting" again, and today there are rumors that he is open to creating a U.S.-first cryptocurrency reserve, prioritizing tokens like USDC, SOL, and XRP. As shown in the image below.

在上一篇文章（1月16日）中，我們討論了鏈上經濟ETF並回顧了近期市場的一些有利方向和因素。不到一天后，川普再次開始“推銷”，今天有傳言稱，他對創建美國首個加密貨幣儲備持開放態度，優先考慮 USDC、SOL 和 XRP 等代幣。如下圖所示。

Subsequently, related tokens began to surge, and some KOLs quickly seized the opportunity, launching various versions of the "U.S. Cryptocurrency Reserve Candidate List" on social media (mainly listing cryptocurrencies established in the U.S.).

隨後，相關代幣開始飆升，一些KOL迅速抓住機會，在社群媒體上推出各種版本的「美國加密貨幣儲備候選名單」（主要列出在美國建立的加密貨幣）。

However, some people have raised different opinions about this news. For example, Quinn Thompson (founder of the hedge fund Lekker Capital) stated that the idea of the U.S. purchasing altcoins as strategic reserves is absurd and will never happen. As shown in the image below.

不過，也有人對此消息提出了不同的看法。例如，Quinn Thompson（對沖基金 Lekker Capital 創始人）表示，美國購買山寨幣作為戰略儲備的想法是荒謬的，永遠不會發生。如下圖所示。

The reason why everyone is so enthusiastic about such rumors may be akin to the saying that Chen Sheng never said: The world has long suffered from altcoin seasons.

之所以大家對這樣的傳聞如此熱衷，可能就類似陳昇從未說過的那句話：世界早已遭受山寨幣季節之苦。

1. Will we still see an altcoin season in 2025?

1. 2025 年我們還會看到山寨幣季節嗎？

Regarding whether we will still see an altcoin season in 2025, this is a question that many people have been asking in the public account's backend recently. Many people probably have their positions in altcoins and feel a bit reluctant as they watch Bitcoin continue to rise.

關於2025年是否還會出現山寨幣季節，這是近期很多人在公眾號後台詢問的問題。許多人可能持有山寨幣頭寸，當他們看著比特幣繼續上漲時，他們感到有點不情願。

In fact, if you have read previous articles on the topic of altcoin seasons from Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside, you should be very clear about our viewpoint. From our perspective, we still maintain our previous speculation: there is still a chance for altcoins to emerge in this bull market, and optimistically, it may happen in the first quarter of 2025.

其實如果你讀過《聊李》和《聊外》之前關於山寨幣季節話題的文章，你應該很清楚我們的觀點。從我們的角度來看，我們仍然維持先前的猜測：山寨幣在這次牛市中仍有機會出現，樂觀地可能會出現在2025年第一季。

In previous articles, we also shared that historically, true altcoin seasons generally occur after BTC.D begins to decline rapidly. For example, this was the case in both the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, as shown in the image below.

在之前的文章中，我們也分享過，從歷史上看，真正的山寨幣季節通常發生在 BTC.D 開始快速下跌之後。例如，2017年和2021年的多頭市場都是如此，如下圖所示。

Interestingly, we can also see from the image above that in previous bull markets, BTC.D began to decline rapidly in the first quarter (around March). Based on the current trend of BTC.D, we are still in a phase of a high point range. If (note that this is hypothetical) history can repeat itself, we might see a new altcoin season opportunity around March.

有趣的是，從上圖我們還可以看到，在歷次多頭市場中，BTC.D在第一季（3月左右）就開始快速下跌。從目前BTC.D的走勢來看，我們仍處於高點區間階段。如果（注意這是假設的）歷史能夠重演，我們可能會在三月左右看到一個新的山寨幣季節機會。

In addition to some on-chain data indicators and sentiment indicators as references, the "U.S. Altcoin Reserve Plan" mentioned above is also a significant positive factor. It is not hard to imagine that if the U.S. really establishes a reserve plan for certain altcoins and provides some legal support in policy, the emotional impact on the overall altcoin prices would be substantial. Of course, the news about the U.S. altcoin reserve plan is currently just a rumor, and its authenticity is unknown. We will only know after patiently waiting for Trump's performance after taking office.

除了一些鏈上數據指標和情緒指標可以參考之外，上述的「美國山寨幣儲備計畫」也是一個顯著的利多因素。不難想像，如果美國真的對某些山寨幣建立儲備計劃，並在政策上提供一些法律支持，對整體山寨幣價格的情緒影響將是巨大的。當然，有關​​美國山寨幣儲備計劃的消息目前只是傳聞，其真實性不得而知。只能耐心等待川普上任後的表現才知道。

Moreover, as we mentioned earlier, there are still many unresolved issues regarding altcoins, such as the problem of a massive number of new projects diluting market liquidity (most altcoins will ultimately wait for zero), the high FDV and low circulation issue (which exerts continuous selling pressure on the market), etc. Therefore, even if we do see a new altcoin season opportunity, not all altcoins will have significant upward potential. If you still wish to take some risks with altcoins, we only suggest that you focus on and explore project tokens under popular narratives like AI, DeFi, RWA, etc.

而且，正如我們前面提到的，山寨幣還存在許多未解決的問題，例如大量新項目稀釋市場流動性的問題（大多數山寨幣最終會等待歸零）、高FDV 和低流通量問題（這對因此，即使我們確實看到了新的山寨幣季節機會，也並非所有山寨幣都會具有顯著的上漲潛力。如果你仍然希望用山寨幣承擔一些風險，我們只建議你關注和探索人工智慧、DeFi、RWA等流行敘事下的專案代幣。

At the same time, it is also important to pay attention to the dynamics related to funding, such as focusing on the activity level of ecosystems and which ecological sectors are seeing capital inflows. As shown in the image below.

同時，也需要關注與資金相關的動態，例如關註生態系統的活躍程度以及哪些生態領域正在出現資本流入。如下圖所示。

For more discussions and analyses on the topic of altcoin seasons, we have already covered a lot in previous articles from Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside. Interested partners can directly search the historical articles of the public account or download the e-book of Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside for a review.

關於山寨幣季節這個主題的更多討論和分析，我們已經在之前的《聊李》和《聊外》的文章中進行了很多介紹。有興趣的朋友可以直接搜尋公眾號歷史文章或下載《談裡談外》電子書進行回顧。

In short, combining our articles from a couple of days ago and the current market sentiment, it seems that Trump's inauguration ceremony (January 20) may trigger a new round of market rebound in February.

總之，結合我們前幾天的文章和目前的市場情緒，川普的就職典禮（1月20日）似乎可能會引發2月的新一輪市場反彈。

2. Will the

2. 是否會