加密市场四年牛市周期会被打破吗？

前几天，很多人还在争论比特币要跌到8万美元了，不过似乎这两天，大家都开始了

Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside: Will 2025 Still Have an Altcoin Season?

谈李谈外：2025年还会有山寨币季节吗？

A few days ago, many people were still arguing that Bitcoin would drop to $80,000, but it seems that in the past couple of days, everyone has started to turn bullish again, calling for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 or even $200,000. The change in sentiment among everyone is faster than a weather forecast.

前几天，很多人还在争论比特币会跌到8万美元，但似乎这两天，大家又开始看多了，呼吁比特币能达到15万美元甚至20万美元。每个人情绪的变化比天气预报还要快。

In the previous article (January 16), we discussed the Onchain Economy ETF and reviewed some recent favorable directions and factors for the market. Less than a day later, Trump started "promoting" again, and today there are rumors that he is open to creating a U.S.-first cryptocurrency reserve, prioritizing tokens like USDC, SOL, and XRP. As shown in the image below.

在上一篇文章（1月16日）中，我们讨论了链上经济ETF并回顾了近期市场的一些有利方向和因素。不到一天后，特朗普再次开始“推销”，今天有传言称，他对创建美国首个加密货币储备持开放态度，优先考虑 USDC、SOL 和 XRP 等代币。如下图所示。

Subsequently, related tokens began to surge, and some KOLs quickly seized the opportunity, launching various versions of the "U.S. Cryptocurrency Reserve Candidate List" on social media (mainly listing cryptocurrencies established in the U.S.).

随后，相关代币开始飙升，一些KOL迅速抓住机会，在社交媒体上推出各种版本的“美国加密货币储备候选名单”（主要列出在美国建立的加密货币）。

However, some people have raised different opinions about this news. For example, Quinn Thompson (founder of the hedge fund Lekker Capital) stated that the idea of the U.S. purchasing altcoins as strategic reserves is absurd and will never happen. As shown in the image below.

不过，也有人对此消息提出了不同的看法。例如，Quinn Thompson（对冲基金 Lekker Capital 创始人）表示，美国购买山寨币作为战略储备的想法是荒谬的，永远不会发生。如下图所示。

The reason why everyone is so enthusiastic about such rumors may be akin to the saying that Chen Sheng never said: The world has long suffered from altcoin seasons.

之所以大家对这样的传闻如此热衷，可能就类似于陈升从未说过的那句话：世界早已遭受山寨币季节之苦。

1. Will we still see an altcoin season in 2025?

1. 2025 年我们还会看到山寨币季节吗？

Regarding whether we will still see an altcoin season in 2025, this is a question that many people have been asking in the public account's backend recently. Many people probably have their positions in altcoins and feel a bit reluctant as they watch Bitcoin continue to rise.

关于2025年是否还会出现山寨币季节，这是近期很多人在公众号后台询问的问题。许多人可能持有山寨币头寸，当他们看着比特币继续上涨时，感到有点不情愿。

In fact, if you have read previous articles on the topic of altcoin seasons from Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside, you should be very clear about our viewpoint. From our perspective, we still maintain our previous speculation: there is still a chance for altcoins to emerge in this bull market, and optimistically, it may happen in the first quarter of 2025.

其实如果你读过《聊李》和《聊外》之前关于山寨币季节话题的文章，你应该很清楚我们的观点。从我们的角度来看，我们仍然维持之前的猜测：山寨币在这次牛市中仍有机会出现，乐观地可能会出现在2025年第一季度。

In previous articles, we also shared that historically, true altcoin seasons generally occur after BTC.D begins to decline rapidly. For example, this was the case in both the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, as shown in the image below.

在之前的文章中，我们还分享过，从历史上看，真正的山寨币季节通常发生在 BTC.D 开始快速下跌之后。例如，2017年和2021年的牛市都是如此，如下图所示。

Interestingly, we can also see from the image above that in previous bull markets, BTC.D began to decline rapidly in the first quarter (around March). Based on the current trend of BTC.D, we are still in a phase of a high point range. If (note that this is hypothetical) history can repeat itself, we might see a new altcoin season opportunity around March.

有趣的是，从上图我们还可以看到，在历次牛市中，BTC.D在第一季度（3月份左右）就开始快速下跌。从目前BTC.D的走势来看，我们仍处于高点区间阶段。如果（注意这是假设的）历史能够重演，我们可能会在三月份左右看到一个新的山寨币季节机会。

In addition to some on-chain data indicators and sentiment indicators as references, the "U.S. Altcoin Reserve Plan" mentioned above is also a significant positive factor. It is not hard to imagine that if the U.S. really establishes a reserve plan for certain altcoins and provides some legal support in policy, the emotional impact on the overall altcoin prices would be substantial. Of course, the news about the U.S. altcoin reserve plan is currently just a rumor, and its authenticity is unknown. We will only know after patiently waiting for Trump's performance after taking office.

除了一些链上数据指标和情绪指标可以参考之外，上面提到的“美国山寨币储备计划”也是一个显着的利好因素。不难想象，如果美国真的对某些山寨币建立储备计划，并在政策上提供一些法律支持，对整体山寨币价格的情绪影响将是巨大的。当然，有关美国山寨币储备计划的消息目前只是传闻，其真实性不得而知。只能耐心等待特朗普上任后的表现才知道。

Moreover, as we mentioned earlier, there are still many unresolved issues regarding altcoins, such as the problem of a massive number of new projects diluting market liquidity (most altcoins will ultimately wait for zero), the high FDV and low circulation issue (which exerts continuous selling pressure on the market), etc. Therefore, even if we do see a new altcoin season opportunity, not all altcoins will have significant upward potential. If you still wish to take some risks with altcoins, we only suggest that you focus on and explore project tokens under popular narratives like AI, DeFi, RWA, etc.

而且，正如我们前面提到的，山寨币还存在许多未解决的问题，例如大量新项目稀释市场流动性的问题（大多数山寨币最终会等待归零）、高 FDV 和低流通量问题（这对因此，即使我们确实看到了新的山寨币季节机会，也并非所有山寨币都会具有显着的上涨潜力。如果你仍然想用山寨币承担一些风险，我们只建议你关注和探索人工智能、DeFi、RWA等流行叙事下的项目代币。

At the same time, it is also important to pay attention to the dynamics related to funding, such as focusing on the activity level of ecosystems and which ecological sectors are seeing capital inflows. As shown in the image below.

同时，还需要关注与资金相关的动态，例如关注生态系统的活跃程度以及哪些生态领域正在出现资本流入。如下图所示。

For more discussions and analyses on the topic of altcoin seasons, we have already covered a lot in previous articles from Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside. Interested partners can directly search the historical articles of the public account or download the e-book of Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside for a review.

关于山寨币季节这个话题的更多讨论和分析，我们已经在之前的《聊李》和《聊外》的文章中进行了很多介绍。感兴趣的小伙伴可以直接搜索公众号历史文章或者下载《谈里谈外》电子书进行回顾。

In short, combining our articles from a couple of days ago and the current market sentiment, it seems that Trump's inauguration ceremony (January 20) may trigger a new round of market rebound in February.

总之，结合我们前几天的文章和目前的市场情绪，特朗普的就职典礼（1月20日）似乎可能会引发2月份的新一轮市场反弹。

2. Will the

2. 是否会