全球貿易戰的關注

自從美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）於1月20日首次宣布對中國商品的進口關稅以來，比特幣（BTC）的價格下跌了17％以上

Both cryptocurrency and traditional markets will be pressured by global trade war concerns until at least the beginning of April, but the potential resolution may bring the next big market catalyst.

至少在4月初之前，全球貿易戰的關注都將受到加密貨幣和傳統市場的壓力，但潛在的解決方案可能會帶來下一個大型市場催化劑。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell over 17% since US President Donald Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20, the first day after his presidential inauguration.

自從美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）首次宣布對中國商品的進口關稅以來，比特幣（BTC）的價格下跌了17％以上，這是他總統就職典禮的第一天。

Despite a multitude of positive crypto-specific developments, such as the crypto debanking crisis and several crypto exchange-related issues, global tariff fears will continue pressuring the markets until at least April 2, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.

Nansen的研究分析師Nicolai Sondergaard表示，儘管加密貨幣的危機和幾個與加密貨幣相關的問題等廣泛的加密特定開發項目，但全球關稅的擔憂將繼續向市場施加壓力，直到至少4月2日。

BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/USD，1天圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

The research analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show on March 21:

研究分析師在3月21日在Cointelegraph的ChainReactRection Daily X節目中說：

The Crypto Debanking Crisis: #CHAINREACTION https://t.co/nD4qkkzKnB

加密式撤銷危機：#ChainReaction https://t.co/nd4qkkzknb

Risk assets may lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved, which may happen between April 2 and July, presenting a positive market catalyst, according to the analyst.

分析師表示，直到解決與關稅有關的問題解決可能發生在4月2日至7月之間的問題之前，風險資產可能缺乏方向。

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates are to take effect on April 2, despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the tariffs could be delayed.

儘管財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）的評論較早，但特朗普總統的互惠關稅率將於4月2日生效，後者表示可能會推遲關稅。

The role of Fed's interest rates in market slump

美聯儲的利率在市場低迷中的作用

High interest rates will also continue pressuring risk appetite among investors until the Federal Reserve eventually starts cutting rates, Sondergaard explained, adding that the markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady during the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Sondergaard解釋說，高利率還將繼續向投資者施加壓力，直到美聯儲最終開始降低利率為止。

Fed target interest rate probabilities. Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

餵養目標利率概率。資料來源：CME Group的FedWatch工具

However, the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation and recession-related concerns are transitory, especially regarding tariffs, which may be a good sign for investors, stated Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.

但是，美聯儲表明通貨膨脹和與衰退相關的問題是短暫的，尤其是關於關稅，這可能是投資者的好兆頭。

“Markets may now anticipate upcoming economic data with greater confidence as the focus shifts to the potential timing of the first Fed rate cut,” the analyst told Cointelegraph.

這位分析師告訴Cointelegraph：“現在，隨著重點轉移到第一批美聯儲降低稅率的潛在時機，市場可能會更加信心。”

“Keep an eye on key reports, including Consumer Confidence, Q4 GDP, jobless claims, and next week’s crucial PCE inflation, to gauge the likelihood of future rate cuts.”

“請密切關注關鍵報告，包括消費者信心，第四季度GDP，失業索賠和下週的關鍵PCE通貨膨脹，以衡量未來降低稅率的可能性。”