加密貨幣和標準普爾500年期貨在2月24日凌晨刪除了6000億美元的市值

這種現象並不與傳統市場隔離。加密市場也面臨著類似的問題，包括24小時內的3億美元消失

Financial markets are experiencing an increasing number of unexplained ‘flash crashes,’ with both traditional equities and crypto showing sudden, dramatic price drops without clear catalysts.

金融市場正在經歷越來越多的無法解釋的“閃存崩潰”，傳統股票和加密貨幣都表現出突然的，急劇的價格下降而沒有明確的催化劑。

In a recent analysis by The Kobeissi Letter, it was noted that S&P 500 futures erased nearly $600 billion in market capitalization between 4:40 AM and 6:20 AM ET without any major headlines driving the move.

在Kobeissi信件最近的一項分析中，據指出，標準普爾500指貨期貨在ET 4:40 AM至6:20 AM之間刪除了近6000億美元的市值，而沒有任何主要的頭條新聞。

This isn’t the first time this year; in February, a $300 billion wipeout in crypto markets took place over 24 hours without any significant bearish news.

這不是今年第一次。 2月，加密貨幣市場上的3000億美元的消失發生在24小時以上，而沒有任何看跌新聞。

Consumer pessimism is at a 19-week high despite the S&P 500 being only 7% off its all-time high.

消費者的悲觀情緒仍處於19週的高度，儘管標準普爾500指數只有7％的歷史高位。

According to data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, bearish sentiment has reached 58.1%.

根據Kobeissi信件強調的美國個人投資者協會（AAII）的數據，看跌的情緒已達到58.1％。

This marks four consecutive weeks where bearish readings exceeded 55%. This is a stark contrast to late 2024, when bearish sentiment consistently registered below 30%.

這是連續四個星期，看跌讀數超過55％。這與2024年末的形成鮮明對比，當時看跌的情緒始終在30％以下。

This level of pessimism is nearly double the historical average of approximately 31%.

這種悲觀的水平幾乎是歷史平均水平約為31％的兩倍。

The drop in investor confidence aligns with broader economic concerns. Consumer confidence has dropped in recent months, while recession fears have intensified.

投資者信心的下降與更廣泛的經濟問題保持一致。最近幾個月，消費者的信心已經下降，而經濟衰退的擔憂也加劇了。

This anxiety appears to be spilling over into investment decisions, with market participants increasingly reluctant to take on risk despite relatively modest declines in major indices.

這種焦慮似乎正在湧入投資決策，儘管主要指數的下降相對較小，但市場參與者越來越不願承擔風險。

The emotional component of these market moves creates what The Kobeissi Letter describes as ‘air pockets’ in pricing. These are zones where normal liquidity and price discovery break down.

這些市場移動的情感組成部分創造了Kobeissi字母所說的“空氣口袋”。這些區域正常流動性和價格發現分解。

When sentiment shifts suddenly, these air pockets can lead to quick price movements that appear disconnected from fundamental developments.

當情緒突然發生變化時，這些空氣口袋會導致價格快速移動，這些價格似乎與基本發展脫節。

For instance, the Swiss National Bank’s recent interest rate cut provides an example. While the central bank reduced rates to their lowest level since September 2022, this move was widely anticipated by market participants.

例如，瑞士國家銀行最近降低的利率降低了一個例子。儘管中央銀行將利率降低到2022年9月以來的最低水平，但市場參與者廣泛期望這一舉動。

However, the anticipation of this decision and the subsequent reaction to its announcement created an air pocket in the market, setting the stage for significant price volatility in the days that followed.

但是，對這一決定的預期以及隨後的公告反應在市場上創造了一個空氣袋，在隨後的日子里為價格大幅度波動奠定了基礎。

This analysis aligns with observations by Real Vision's Ben Armstrong, who has highlighted the role of liquidity in amplifying minor selling pressure into substantial price declines.

該分析與真實視覺的本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）的觀察相吻合，後者強調了流動性在將小銷售壓力擴大到大幅下降中的作用。

When market participants attempt to execute large trades during periods of thin liquidity, the impact on price can be disproportionate to the size of the transaction relative to the overall market.

當市場參與者試圖在流動性薄時進行大型交易時，相對於整個市場，對價格的影響可能與交易規模不成比例。

This liquidity issue has been particularly visible in cryptocurrency markets. The February 25th event erased $300 billion in crypto market value within 24 hours. This occurred despite no major negative news, suggesting that relatively modest selling pressure encountered insufficient buy-side liquidity, leading to price declines.

這個流動性問題在加密貨幣市場中特別明顯。 2月25日的活動在24小時內刪除了3000億美元的加密貨幣市場價值。儘管沒有重大的負面消息，但這還是發生的，這表明相對較小的銷售壓力遇到了不足的買方流動性，導致價格下降。

Similarly, Ethereum's 37% drop over 60 hours beginning February 2nd coincided with trade war headlines.

同樣，從2月2日開始，以太坊的37％在60小時內下降了60個小時。

The Kobeissi Letter attributes this partly to liquidity being "drained from Ethereum at a historic pace" during this period.

Kobeissi信件將這部分歸因於流動性在此期間“從以太坊中排出”。

The Kobeissi Letter points to some potential improvement on the horizon, noting that "after a complete collapse since January 1st, CTAs are beginning to increase liquidity again."

Kobeissi的信指出，地平線有一些潛在的進步，並指出“自1月1日以來完全崩潰後，CTA又開始增加流動性。”