加密货币和标准普尔500年期货在2月24日凌晨删除了6000亿美元的市值

这种现象并不与传统市场隔离。加密市场也面临着类似的问题，包括24小时内的3亿美元消失

Financial markets are experiencing an increasing number of unexplained ‘flash crashes,’ with both traditional equities and crypto showing sudden, dramatic price drops without clear catalysts.

金融市场正在经历越来越多的无法解释的“闪存崩溃”，传统股票和加密货币都表现出突然的，急剧的价格下降而没有明确的催化剂。

In a recent analysis by The Kobeissi Letter, it was noted that S&P 500 futures erased nearly $600 billion in market capitalization between 4:40 AM and 6:20 AM ET without any major headlines driving the move.

在Kobeissi信件最近的一项分析中，据指出，标准普尔500指货期货在ET 4:40 AM至6:20 AM之间删除了近6000亿美元的市值，而没有任何主要的头条新闻。

This isn’t the first time this year; in February, a $300 billion wipeout in crypto markets took place over 24 hours without any significant bearish news.

这不是今年第一次。 2月，加密货币市场上的3000亿美元的消失发生在24小时以上，而没有任何看跌新闻。

Consumer pessimism is at a 19-week high despite the S&P 500 being only 7% off its all-time high.

消费者的悲观情绪仍处于19周的高度，尽管标准普尔500指数只有7％的历史高位。

According to data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, bearish sentiment has reached 58.1%.

根据Kobeissi信件强调的美国个人投资者协会（AAII）的数据，看跌的情绪已达到58.1％。

This marks four consecutive weeks where bearish readings exceeded 55%. This is a stark contrast to late 2024, when bearish sentiment consistently registered below 30%.

这是连续四个星期，看跌读数超过55％。这与2024年末的形成鲜明对比，当时看跌的情绪始终在30％以下。

This level of pessimism is nearly double the historical average of approximately 31%.

这种悲观的水平几乎是历史平均水平约为31％的两倍。

The drop in investor confidence aligns with broader economic concerns. Consumer confidence has dropped in recent months, while recession fears have intensified.

投资者信心的下降与更广泛的经济问题保持一致。最近几个月，消费者的信心已经下降，而经济衰退的担忧也加剧了。

This anxiety appears to be spilling over into investment decisions, with market participants increasingly reluctant to take on risk despite relatively modest declines in major indices.

这种焦虑似乎正在涌入投资决策，尽管主要指数的下降相对较小，但市场参与者越来越不愿承担风险。

The emotional component of these market moves creates what The Kobeissi Letter describes as ‘air pockets’ in pricing. These are zones where normal liquidity and price discovery break down.

这些市场移动的情感组成部分创造了Kobeissi字母所说的“空气口袋”。这些区域正常流动性和价格发现分解。

When sentiment shifts suddenly, these air pockets can lead to quick price movements that appear disconnected from fundamental developments.

当情绪突然发生变化时，这些空气口袋会导致价格快速移动，这些价格似乎与基本发展脱节。

For instance, the Swiss National Bank’s recent interest rate cut provides an example. While the central bank reduced rates to their lowest level since September 2022, this move was widely anticipated by market participants.

例如，瑞士国家银行最近降低的利率降低了一个例子。尽管中央银行将利率降低到2022年9月以来的最低水平，但市场参与者广泛期望这一举动。

However, the anticipation of this decision and the subsequent reaction to its announcement created an air pocket in the market, setting the stage for significant price volatility in the days that followed.

但是，对这一决定的预期以及随后的公告反应在市场上创造了一个空气袋，在随后的日子里为价格大幅度波动奠定了基础。

This analysis aligns with observations by Real Vision's Ben Armstrong, who has highlighted the role of liquidity in amplifying minor selling pressure into substantial price declines.

该分析与真实视觉的本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）的观察相吻合，后者强调了流动性在将小销售压力扩大到大幅下降中的作用。

When market participants attempt to execute large trades during periods of thin liquidity, the impact on price can be disproportionate to the size of the transaction relative to the overall market.

当市场参与者试图在流动性薄时进行大型交易时，相对于整个市场，对价格的影响可能与交易规模不成比例。

This liquidity issue has been particularly visible in cryptocurrency markets. The February 25th event erased $300 billion in crypto market value within 24 hours. This occurred despite no major negative news, suggesting that relatively modest selling pressure encountered insufficient buy-side liquidity, leading to price declines.

这个流动性问题在加密货币市场中特别明显。 2月25日的活动在24小时内删除了3000亿美元的加密货币市场价值。尽管没有重大的负面消息，但这还是发生的，这表明相对较小的销售压力遇到了不足的买方流动性，导致价格下降。

Similarly, Ethereum's 37% drop over 60 hours beginning February 2nd coincided with trade war headlines.

同样，从2月2日开始，以太坊的37％在60小时内下降了60个小时。

The Kobeissi Letter attributes this partly to liquidity being "drained from Ethereum at a historic pace" during this period.

Kobeissi信件将这部分归因于流动性在此期间“从以太坊中排出”。

The Kobeissi Letter points to some potential improvement on the horizon, noting that "after a complete collapse since January 1st, CTAs are beginning to increase liquidity again."

Kobeissi的信指出，地平线有一些潜在的进步，并指出“自1月1日以来完全崩溃后，CTA又开始增加流动性。”