Both cryptocurrency and traditional markets will be pressured by global trade war concerns

Bitcoin's (BTC) price fell over 17% since US President Donald Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20

Both cryptocurrency and traditional markets will be pressured by global trade war concerns until at least the beginning of April, but the potential resolution may bring the next big market catalyst.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell over 17% since US President Donald Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20, the first day after his presidential inauguration.

Despite a multitude of positive crypto-specific developments, such as the crypto debanking crisis and several crypto exchange-related issues, global tariff fears will continue pressuring the markets until at least April 2, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.

BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The research analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show on March 21:

The Crypto Debanking Crisis: #CHAINREACTION https://t.co/nD4qkkzKnB

Risk assets may lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved, which may happen between April 2 and July, presenting a positive market catalyst, according to the analyst.

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates are to take effect on April 2, despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the tariffs could be delayed.

The role of Fed's interest rates in market slump

High interest rates will also continue pressuring risk appetite among investors until the Federal Reserve eventually starts cutting rates, Sondergaard explained, adding that the markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady during the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Fed target interest rate probabilities. Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

However, the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation and recession-related concerns are transitory, especially regarding tariffs, which may be a good sign for investors, stated Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.

“Markets may now anticipate upcoming economic data with greater confidence as the focus shifts to the potential timing of the first Fed rate cut,” the analyst told Cointelegraph.

“Keep an eye on key reports, including Consumer Confidence, Q4 GDP, jobless claims, and next week’s crucial PCE inflation, to gauge the likelihood of future rate cuts.”