全球贸易战的关注

自从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）于1月20日首次宣布对中国商品的进口关税以来，比特币（BTC）的价格下跌了17％以上

Both cryptocurrency and traditional markets will be pressured by global trade war concerns until at least the beginning of April, but the potential resolution may bring the next big market catalyst.

至少在4月初之前，全球贸易战的关注都将受到加密货币和传统市场的压力，但潜在的解决方案可能会带来下一个大型市场催化剂。

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell over 17% since US President Donald Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20, the first day after his presidential inauguration.

自从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）首次宣布对中国商品的进口关税以来，比特币（BTC）的价格下跌了17％以上，这是他总统就职典礼的第一天。

Despite a multitude of positive crypto-specific developments, such as the crypto debanking crisis and several crypto exchange-related issues, global tariff fears will continue pressuring the markets until at least April 2, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.

Nansen的研究分析师Nicolai Sondergaard表示，尽管加密货币的危机和几个与加密货币相关的问题等广泛的加密特定开发项目，但全球关税的担忧将继续向市场施加压力，直到至少4月2日。

BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/USD，1天图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

The research analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show on March 21:

研究分析师在3月21日在Cointelegraph的ChainReactRection Daily X节目中说：

The Crypto Debanking Crisis: #CHAINREACTION https://t.co/nD4qkkzKnB

加密式撤销危机：#ChainReaction https://t.co/nd4qkkzknb

Risk assets may lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved, which may happen between April 2 and July, presenting a positive market catalyst, according to the analyst.

分析师表示，直到解决与关税有关的问题解决可能发生在4月2日至7月之间的问题之前，风险资产可能缺乏方向。

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates are to take effect on April 2, despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that the tariffs could be delayed.

尽管财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）的评论较早，但特朗普总统的互惠关税率将于4月2日生效，后者表示可能会推迟关税。

The role of Fed's interest rates in market slump

美联储的利率在市场低迷中的作用

High interest rates will also continue pressuring risk appetite among investors until the Federal Reserve eventually starts cutting rates, Sondergaard explained, adding that the markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady during the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Sondergaard解释说，高利率还将继续向投资者施加压力，直到美联储最终开始降低利率为止。

Fed target interest rate probabilities. Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

喂养目标利率概率。资料来源：CME Group的FedWatch工具

However, the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation and recession-related concerns are transitory, especially regarding tariffs, which may be a good sign for investors, stated Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.

但是，美联储表明通货膨胀和与衰退相关的问题是短暂的，尤其是关于关税，这可能是投资者的好兆头。

“Markets may now anticipate upcoming economic data with greater confidence as the focus shifts to the potential timing of the first Fed rate cut,” the analyst told Cointelegraph.

这位分析师告诉Cointelegraph：“现在，随着重点转移到第一批美联储降低税率的潜在时机，市场可能会更加信心。”

“Keep an eye on key reports, including Consumer Confidence, Q4 GDP, jobless claims, and next week’s crucial PCE inflation, to gauge the likelihood of future rate cuts.”

“请密切关注关键报告，包括消费者信心，第四季度GDP，失业索赔和下周的关键PCE通货膨胀，以衡量未来降低税率的可能性。”