隨著美元指數（DXY）創出新高，加密貨幣市場連續第二天下跌

儘管美元指數本周初下跌 0.92%，隨後比特幣 (BTC) 突然反彈至 102,000 美元 94,934 美元，但該指數逆轉了走勢

Cryptocurrency markets fell for a second day on March 13 as the US dollar index (DXY) chased new highs amid rising treasury yields and investors’ concerns over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plan.

3 月 13 日，由於美國公債殖利率上升以及投資者對聯準會貨幣政策計畫的擔憂，美元指數 (DXY) 追上新高，加密貨幣市場連續第二天下跌。

While the DXY began the week with a 0.92% decline, which was followed by an abrupt rally to $102,000 by Bitcoin ( BTC ) on March 11, the index quickly reversed course, reaching 109.37 on Monday — hitting levels not seen since November 2022.

雖然美元指數本周初下跌 0.92%，隨後比特幣 (BTC) 於 3 月 11 日突然反彈至 102,000 美元，但該指數很快就逆轉走勢，週一達到 109.37，創下 2022 年 11 月以來的最高水平。

Markets also reacted negatively to a surge in US Treasury yields, where the 10-yr note topped 4.7%, and the yield on the 30-year note rose to 4.93%.

市場也對美國公債殖利率飆升做出負面反應，10年期公債殖利率突破4.7%，30年期公債殖利率升至4.93%。

While the catalysts for the increases are multiple and complex, they essentially reflect market participants’ concern that inflation will remain elevated as President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies are likely to expand deficits.

雖然上漲的催化劑是多重且複雜的，但它們本質上反映了市場參與者的擔憂，即由於當選總統唐納德·川普的經濟政策可能會擴大赤字，通膨將持續走高。

In simpler terms, the market is beginning to price in the potential for an increase in longer-dated US debt, and the incoming Trump administration’s policies are expected to send inflation higher, even if they boost growth.

簡而言之，市場開始消化美國長期債務增加的可能性，而即將上任的川普政府的政策預計將推高通膨，即使它們會促進經濟成長。

Related: 'Trump dump' risks pulling Bitcoin price down to $88K'

相關：「川普拋售」可能會將比特幣價格拉低至 8.8 萬美元

Par for the course, Bitcoin price reacted negatively to DXY strength, and analysts now anticipate that yield curve controls will become a common talking point once again.

當然，比特幣價格對 DXY 走強做出了負面反應，分析師現在預計殖利率曲線控制將再次成為常見話題。

DXY vs BTC 3-day chart. Source: TradingView

DXY 與 BTC 3 天圖表。來源：TradingView

BTC price slipped to an intra-day low of $92,500 and analysts warned that prices could continue to fall in the short term if the $90,000 support fails to hold.

BTC 價格跌至日內低點 92,500 美元，分析師警告稱，如果未能守住 90,000 美元的支撐位，價格短期內可能會繼續下跌。

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Biyond co-founder Burkan Beyli said:

Biyond 聯合創始人 Burkan Beyli 在接受 Cointelegraph 採訪時表示：

"The recent strength in the DXY is putting pressure on Bitcoin price, and if the critical support at $90,000 fails to hold, we could see prices drop to the next support level around $85,000.”

「近期美元指數的走強給比特幣價格帶來了壓力，如果 90,000 美元的關鍵支撐位未能守住，我們可能會看到價格跌至 85,000 美元左右的下一個支撐位。”

Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts appears to disagree with Beyli’s perspective, writing off DXY’s recent strength as less relevant than the anticipated liquidity expansion and pro-crypto stance of the incoming Trump administration.

Real Vision 首席加密分析師 Jamie Coutts 似乎不同意 Beyli 的觀點，認為 DXY 最近的強勢與即將上任的川普政府預期的流動性擴張和支持加密貨幣的立場相比不太重要。

According to Coutts, "The DXY move is less interesting than the crypto friendliness of the Trump administration and the liquidity expansion, which should be supportive of both crypto and equities."

Coutts 表示，“與川普政府對加密貨幣的友好態度和流動性擴張相比，DXY 的舉動並不那麼有趣，這應該會支持加密貨幣和股票。”

However, the crypto analyst also highlighted the potential for a "Trump dump" in the markets, adding that the risk of such an event is "material, especially if the administration pivots on crypto friendliness."

然而，這位加密貨幣分析師也強調了市場上「川普傾銷」的可能性，並補充說這種事件的風險是「重大的，特別是如果政府以加密貨幣友好為中心」。

"If the administration pivots and crypto gets hit with a tax or regulation, we could see a large sell-off, and the recent strength in DXY would amplify the downside pressure," Coutts explained.

Coutts 解釋說：“如果政府轉向，加密貨幣受到稅收或監管的打擊，我們可能會看到大規模拋售，而 DXY 最近的走強將放大下行壓力。”

The strength of the dollar index is typically viewed as a不利 factor for crypto markets, as rising DXY tends to push capital away from riskier assets. However, several crypto analysts have argued that the correlation between DXY and crypto markets has weakened in recent months.

美元指數的走強通常被視為對加密貨幣市場的不利因素，因為美元指數上漲往往促使資本遠離風險較高的資產。然而，一些加密貨幣分析師認為，近幾個月來 DXY 和加密貨幣市場之間的相關性已經減弱。

A recent analysis by crypto exchange Bitfinex showed that the correlation between BTC and the DXY hit a low of 0.1 in February, indicating a possible decoupling between the two markets.

加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 最近的一項分析顯示，2 月 BTC 和 DXY 之間的相關性觸及 0.1 的低點，表明兩個市場之間可能存在脫鉤。

"This development suggests that cryptocurrencies are becoming less sensitive to shifts in the US dollar, and other factors, such as institutional interest and regulatory developments, are playing a more significant role in driving crypto prices," the Bitfinex report noted.

Bitfinex 報告指出：“這一事態發展表明，加密貨幣對美元走勢的敏感度越來越低，而機構利益和監管發展等其他因素在推動加密貨幣價格方面發揮著更重要的作用。”