加密貨幣市場週期：Chris Burniske 駁斥了比特幣（BTC）“超級週期”的想法，並將其稱為“集體錯覺”

加密貨幣領域的知名人士、Placeholder VC 的合夥人 Chris Burniske 駁斥了比特幣（BTC）「超級週期」的想法，並將其標記為

Prominent crypto voice and Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske has dismissed the idea of a Bitcoin BTC/USD "supercycle," terming it a “collective delusion.”

著名的加密貨幣聲音和 Placeholder VC 合夥人 Chris Burniske 駁斥了比特幣 BTC/USD「超級週期」的想法，稱其為「集體錯覺」。

On Wednesday, Burniske took to X in a detailed thread, cautioning investors against the belief that Bitcoin’s bull markets will do away with future bear markets, even with new factors like Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and potential sovereign adoption.

週三，伯尼斯克在一篇詳細的貼文中警告投資者不要相信比特幣的牛市將消除未來的熊市，即使有比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）和潛在的主權採用等新因素。

"Every bull, people come up with reasons for why we're going stupid high or won't have a bear," wrote Burniske, reflecting on over a decade of market cycles in crypto.

「每一次多頭市場，人們都會想出為什麼我們會愚蠢地走高或不會出現熊市的原因，」伯尼斯克在反思加密貨幣市場十多年的周期時寫道。

"While the ETFs and potential sovereign buying could mean we don't have as brutal a bear in the future for BTC, ‘supercycle’ is without fail a collective delusion,” he added.

他補充說：“雖然 ETF 和潛在的主權購買可能意味著比特幣未來不會出現如此殘酷的熊市，但‘超級週期’無疑是一種集體錯覺。”

Burniske highlighted that the current bull market, which he dates back to November 2022, has seen Bitcoin rally to close to $100,000 — up more than 6x since the bottom of the last cycle.

Burniske 強調，目前的牛市可以追溯到 2022 年 11 月，比特幣已經上漲至接近 10 萬美元，自上一個週期的底部以來上漲了 6 倍多。

Other assets like Ethereum ETH/USD and Solana SOL/USD have also seen exponential gains, up over 4x and 30x, respectively, during the same period.

以太坊 ETH/USD 和 Solana SOL/USD 等其他資產也出現了指數級上漲，同期分別上漲超過 4 倍和 30 倍。

However, he cautioned investors against late entries during such bullish periods, adding that the more attention crypto receives, the worse the timing often is for new buyers.

然而，他警告投資者在這種看漲時期不要遲到，並補充說，加密貨幣受到的關注越多，新買家的時機往往就越糟糕。

"The painful reality is as crypto prices go up, that draws more attention, and that attention converts into buying flows," he explained.

「痛苦的現實是，隨著加密貨幣價格的上漲，這會吸引更多的注意力，而這種注意力就會轉化為購買流，」他解釋道。

Burniske pointed out that the best entry points are typically when few are paying attention, as was the case two years ago.

伯尼斯克指出，最好的切入點通常是在很少有人注意的時候，就像兩年前的情況一樣。

Burniske also took issue with the idea that structural changes in the market, like institutional involvement or sovereign interest, could end the boom-and-bust nature of crypto cycles.

伯尼斯克也對市場的結構性變化（例如機構參與或主權利益）可能結束加密貨幣週期的繁榮與蕭條性質的觀點提出了異議。

"Anything that goes 100x quickly is prone to at least an 80-90% crash at some point, structurally—too many people sitting on profit," he noted.

他指出：“任何快速增長 100 倍的事物都可能在某個時刻出現至少 80-90% 的崩盤，從結構上看，太多人坐擁利潤。”

While acknowledging that crashes are part of the natural evolution of crypto markets, he added that factors like ETFs could help soften future bear markets, making them less severe.

他承認崩盤是加密貨幣市場自然演變的一部分，但他補充說，ETF等因素可能有助於軟化未來的熊市，使其不那麼嚴重。

He also dismissed recent chatter about a shortened cycle as "bear market PTSD talking."

他也將最近有關縮短週期的言論斥為「熊市創傷後壓力症候群言論」。

For those new to crypto, Burniske advised a simple portfolio allocation focused on quality assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana (50/25/25%). He cautioned against speculative investments in smaller assets without adequate research and suggested a disciplined approach to profit-taking.

對於剛接觸加密貨幣的人，Burniske 建議進行簡單的投資組合配置，重點是比特幣、以太幣和 Solana 等優質資產 (50/25/25%)。他警告不要在沒有充分研究的情況下對較小資產進行投機性投資，並建議採取嚴格的獲利回吐方法。

"From current entry prices, if they 2x, encourage them to take half out at that point, leaving their initial cost allocated," he suggested, highlighting the importance of preparing for volatility.

他建議說：「從目前的入場價格來看，如果是兩倍，鼓勵他們在那時拿出一半，保留初始成本分配。」他強調了為波動做好準備的重要性。

As for those banking on outsized returns in the current market, Burniske warned, "No one is getting rich or crazy multiples from these prices… but they're gonna see people making good money, so it's hard to resist."

至於那些指望當前市場上的巨額回報的人，伯尼斯克警告說，「沒有人能從這些價格中致富或瘋狂倍數......但他們會看到人們賺大錢，所以很難抗拒。 」