加密货币市场周期：Chris Burniske 驳斥了比特币（BTC）“超级周期”的想法，并将其称为“集体错觉”

加密货币领域的知名人士、Placeholder VC 的合伙人 Chris Burniske 驳斥了比特币（BTC）“超级周期”的想法，并将其标记为

Prominent crypto voice and Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske has dismissed the idea of a Bitcoin BTC/USD "supercycle," terming it a “collective delusion.”

著名的加密货币声音和 Placeholder VC 合伙人 Chris Burniske 驳斥了比特币 BTC/USD“超级周期”的想法，称其为“集体错觉”。

On Wednesday, Burniske took to X in a detailed thread, cautioning investors against the belief that Bitcoin’s bull markets will do away with future bear markets, even with new factors like Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and potential sovereign adoption.

周三，伯尼斯克在一篇详细的帖子中警告投资者不要相信比特币的牛市将消除未来的熊市，即使有比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）和潜在的主权采用等新因素。

"Every bull, people come up with reasons for why we're going stupid high or won't have a bear," wrote Burniske, reflecting on over a decade of market cycles in crypto.

伯尼斯克在回顾加密货币市场十多年的周期时写道：“每一次牛市，人们都会想出一些理由来解释为什么我们会愚蠢地走高或不会出现熊市。”

"While the ETFs and potential sovereign buying could mean we don't have as brutal a bear in the future for BTC, ‘supercycle’ is without fail a collective delusion,” he added.

他补充道：“虽然 ETF 和潜在的主权购买可能意味着比特币未来不会出现如此残酷的熊市，但‘超级周期’无疑是一种集体错觉。”

Burniske highlighted that the current bull market, which he dates back to November 2022, has seen Bitcoin rally to close to $100,000 — up more than 6x since the bottom of the last cycle.

Burniske 强调，当前的牛市可以追溯到 2022 年 11 月，比特币已经上涨至接近 10 万美元，自上一个周期的底部以来上涨了 6 倍多。

Other assets like Ethereum ETH/USD and Solana SOL/USD have also seen exponential gains, up over 4x and 30x, respectively, during the same period.

以太坊 ETH/USD 和 Solana SOL/USD 等其他资产也出现了指数级上涨，同期分别上涨超过 4 倍和 30 倍。

However, he cautioned investors against late entries during such bullish periods, adding that the more attention crypto receives, the worse the timing often is for new buyers.

然而，他警告投资者在这种看涨时期不要迟到，并补充说，加密货币受到的关注越多，新买家的时机往往就越糟糕。

"The painful reality is as crypto prices go up, that draws more attention, and that attention converts into buying flows," he explained.

“痛苦的现实是，随着加密货币价格的上涨，这会吸引更多的注意力，而这种注意力就会转化为购买流，”他解释道。

Burniske pointed out that the best entry points are typically when few are paying attention, as was the case two years ago.

伯尼斯克指出，最好的切入点通常是在很少有人关注的时候，就像两年前的情况一样。

Burniske also took issue with the idea that structural changes in the market, like institutional involvement or sovereign interest, could end the boom-and-bust nature of crypto cycles.

伯尼斯克还对市场的结构性变化（例如机构参与或主权利益）可能结束加密货币周期的繁荣与萧条性质的观点提出了异议。

"Anything that goes 100x quickly is prone to at least an 80-90% crash at some point, structurally—too many people sitting on profit," he noted.

他指出：“任何快速增长 100 倍的事物都可能在某个时刻出现至少 80-90% 的崩盘，从结构上看，太多人坐拥利润。”

While acknowledging that crashes are part of the natural evolution of crypto markets, he added that factors like ETFs could help soften future bear markets, making them less severe.

他承认崩盘是加密货币市场自然演变的一部分，但他补充说，ETF等因素可能有助于软化未来的熊市，使其不那么严重。

He also dismissed recent chatter about a shortened cycle as "bear market PTSD talking."

他还将最近有关缩短周期的言论斥为“熊市创伤后应激障碍言论”。

For those new to crypto, Burniske advised a simple portfolio allocation focused on quality assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana (50/25/25%). He cautioned against speculative investments in smaller assets without adequate research and suggested a disciplined approach to profit-taking.

对于那些刚接触加密货币的人，Burniske 建议进行简单的投资组合配置，重点关注比特币、以太坊和 Solana 等优质资产 (50/25/25%)。他警告不要在没有充分研究的情况下对较小资产进行投机性投资，并建议采取严格的获利回吐方法。

"From current entry prices, if they 2x, encourage them to take half out at that point, leaving their initial cost allocated," he suggested, highlighting the importance of preparing for volatility.

他建议说：“从目前的入场价格来看，如果是两倍，鼓励他们在那时拿出一半，保留初始成本分配。”他强调了为波动做好准备的重要性。

As for those banking on outsized returns in the current market, Burniske warned, "No one is getting rich or crazy multiples from these prices… but they're gonna see people making good money, so it's hard to resist."

至于那些指望当前市场上的巨额回报的人，伯尼斯克警告说，“没有人能从这些价格中致富或疯狂倍数......但他们会看到人们赚大钱，所以很难抗拒。”