加密投資產品連續第三週流出

截至 4 月 26 日的一周，加密貨幣投資產品出現了 4.35 億美元的大幅流出，這是加密貨幣交易所交易產品 (ETP) 連續第三週出現。比特幣基金對資金流出做出了重大貢獻，減半後有 4.23 億美元退出市場，而以太坊產品也面臨 3,800 萬美元的撤資，將其負流量連續時間延長至七週。

Cryptocurrency Investment Products Experience Third Consecutive Week of Outflows

加密貨幣投資產品連續第三週出現資金外流

London, April 26, 2023 - A recent report from CoinShares reveals a significant outflow of $435 million from cryptocurrency investment products during the week ending April 26. This marks the third consecutive week of outflows for crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) as Bitcoin's price remains stagnant within the $60,000 range.

倫敦，2023 年4 月26 日- CoinShares 最近的一份報告顯示，截至4 月26 日的一周內，加密貨幣投資產品大幅流出4.35 億美元。三週流出比特幣價格仍停滯在 6 萬美元範圍內。

Bitcoin (BTC) funds led the outflows, with $423 million exiting the market following the recent halving event. Ether (ETH) investment products also experienced withdrawals of $38 million, extending their negative flow streak to seven consecutive weeks. In contrast, Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) ETPs received deposits, with net inflows of $4.1 million and $3.1 million, respectively.

比特幣 (BTC) 基金引領資金流出，在最近的減半事件後，有 4.23 億美元退出市場。以太坊（ETH）投資產品也出現了 3,800 萬美元的提款，將其負流量連續七週延長。相比之下，Solana (SOL) 和萊特幣 (LTC) ETP 收到存款，淨流入分別為 410 萬美元和 310 萬美元。

According to CoinShares, the negative outflows are attributed to "deceleration in inflows from new issuers," with only $126 million in inflows recorded last week compared to $254 million the previous week. Notably, data from Farside Investors indicates that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, experienced "zero flows" for the first time last week. Other issuers have also faced periods of zero inflows amidst decelerating outflows from Grayscale's GBTC.

據 CoinShares 稱，負資金流出歸因於“新發行人的資金流入減速”，上週僅錄得 1.26 億美元的資金流入，而前一周為 2.54 億美元。值得注意的是，Farside Investors 的數據顯示，貝萊德的比特幣 ETF IBIT 上週首次出現「零流量」。在 Grayscale 的 GBTC 流出減速的情況下，其他發行人也面臨零流入的時期。

The negative outflows are believed to be a reflection of investors' concerns over potential U.S. stagflation – a combination of slowed economic growth and rising inflation – which has diminished the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. CME FedWatch tool suggests that traders currently assign a mere 11.3% probability to a June rate cut, compared to 44.8% for September and 43.8% for November. This implies that market analysts anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in May and June, with the first potential rate cut occurring later in the year.

負資金流出被認為反映了投資者對美國潛在滯脹（經濟成長放緩和通膨上升的結合）的擔憂，這降低了聯準會降息的可能性。 CME FedWatch 工具顯示，交易者目前認為 6 月降息的可能性僅為 11.3%，而 9 月和 11 月的降息機率分別為 44.8% 和 43.8%。這意味著市場分析師預計聯準會將在 5 月和 6 月維持利率不變，並可能在今年稍後首次降息。

Analysts at brokerage firm Bernstein view the slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows not as the onset of a negative trend but rather as a "short-term pause" before BTC resumes its bull run. In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra expressed optimism, stating:

經紀公司 Bernstein 的分析師認為，比特幣 ETF 現貨流入放緩並不是負面趨勢的開始，而是 BTC 恢復牛市之前的「短期暫停」。在給客戶的報告中，伯恩斯坦分析師 Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 表達了樂觀態度，他們表示：

"We don't expect the Bitcoin ETF slowdown to be a worrying trend, but believe it is a short-term pause before ETFs become more integrated with private bank platforms, wealth advisors, and even more brokerage platforms."

“我們預計比特幣 ETF 的放緩不會成為令人擔憂的趨勢，但相信這是 ETF 與私人銀行平台、財富顧問甚至更多經紀平台更加融合之前的短暫停頓。”

The analysts maintain their price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, citing "unprecedented ETF demand" that has resulted in $12 billion of spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows since their market debut on January 11.

分析師維持比特幣到 2025 年底 15 萬美元的價格目標，理由是“前所未有的 ETF 需求”，導致自 1 月 11 日上市以來現貨比特幣 ETF 淨流入達到 120 億美元。

However, a report from Ecoinometrics cautions readers to monitor a potential shift in financial conditions that could influence the Bitcoin bull market. The report highlights that while spot Bitcoin ETFs have "opened up a new source of demand," unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and the U.S. Federal Reserve's inability to control inflation could pose challenges.

然而，計量經濟學的一份報告提醒讀者關注可能影響比特幣牛市的金融狀況的潛在變化。該報告強調，雖然現貨比特幣 ETF“開闢了新的需求來源”，但不利的宏觀經濟條件和聯準會無法控制通膨可能會帶來挑戰。

"That could cause a re-tightening of the financial conditions," the report explains. "And this would create a headwind for the bull market."

報告解釋說：“這可能會導致金融狀況重新收緊。” “這將為牛市帶來阻力。”

Ecoinometrics notes that the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) – a measure of the tightness in the U.S. financial system – has stalled and is at the same level it was in 2022 when interest rates began to rise.

Ecoinometrics 指出，衡量美國金融體系緊張程度的芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行國家金融狀況指數 (NFCI) 已陷入停滯，與 2022 年利率開始上升時的水平相同。

"If it just stays at that, then we are simply experiencing a pause in the bull market," Ecoinometrics explains. "But if this is a pivot in the financial conditions, the bull market would be in trouble."

「如果它只是停留在這個水平，那麼我們只是在經歷多頭市場的暫停，」計量經濟學解釋道。 “但如果這是金融狀況的關鍵點，牛市就會遇到麻煩。”

Amidst the market uncertainty, QCP, a provider of data and analytics on digital asset markets, anticipates a potential catalyst next week with the launch of HK BTC and ETH spot ETFs. "Interest is growing in what could be a gateway for the inflow of Asian institutional capital," QCP noted in a recent note.

在市場不確定性的情況下，數位資產市場數據和分析提供者 QCP 預計，下週香港 BTC 和 ETH 現貨 ETF 的推出將成為潛在的催化劑。 QCP 在最近的一份報告中指出，“人們對亞洲機構資本流入的門戶越來越感興趣。”

It is important to emphasize that this article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to risks, and investors should conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

需要強調的是，本文不構成投資建議或推薦。加密貨幣投資存在風險，投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應進行徹底的研究。