CoInbase月度市場評論：隨著新加密冬季套裝，比特幣（BTC）Altcoin市值縮小了40％

公開交易的總部位於美國的加密交易所Coinbase的AMR報告表明，儘管加密貨幣市場已簽約，但它似乎正在為一個更好的季度做好準備。

The crypto market has contracted but appears to be gearing up for a better quarter. According to Coinbase’s April 15 monthly outlook for institutional investors, the altcoin market cap shrank by 41% from its December 2024 highs of $1.6 trillion to $950 billion by mid-April. BTC Tools data shows that this metric touched a low of $906.9 billion on April 9 and stood at $976.9 billion at the time of writing.

加密貨幣市場已簽約，但似乎正在為一個更好的季度做好準備。根據Coinbase 4月15日針對機構投資者的每月展望，從2024年12月中旬到4月中旬，Altcoin市值從其2024年12月的高點為1.6萬億美元，至9500億美元。 BTC工具數據顯示，該指標在4月9日觸及了9.069億美元的低價，並在撰寫本文時為9769億美元。

Venture capital funding to crypto projects has reportedly decreased by 50%–60% from 2021–22. In the report, Coinbase’s global head of research, David Duong, highlighted that a new crypto winter may be upon us.

據報導，向加密項目的風險投資資金從2021 - 22年開始下降了50％–60％。在報告中，Coinbase的全球研究負責人David Duong強調說，新的加密冬季可能正在臨近我們。

“Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new ‘crypto winter’ as some extreme negative sentiment has set in due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations,” he said.

他說：“由於全球關稅的發作和進一步升級的潛力，幾個融合的信號可能指出了新的'加密冬季'的開始。”

How trade wars impact stocks and crypto

貿易戰如何影響股票和加密貨幣

The report notes that lower venture capitalist interest “significantly limits the onboarding of new capital into the ecosystem,” which is felt primarily in the altcoin sector. The cause of that, according to Duong, is the current macroeconomic environment:

該報告指出，較低的風險資本主義權益“顯著限制了新資本進入生態系統的登機”，這主要在Altcoin部門感到。根據Duong的說法，原因是當前的宏觀經濟環境：

According to Coinbase researchers, those facts have resulted in “a difficult cyclical outlook for the digital asset space,” and warrant continued caution in the next four to six weeks. Still, the report’s author said that the market is likely to change directions explosively:

根據Coinbase研究人員的說法，這些事實導致“數字資產空間的艱難週期性前景”，並在未來四到六週內繼續謹慎。報告的作者仍然說，市場可能會爆炸性地改變方向：

Duong cited some metrics to indicate when the crypto market is moving between bull and bear market phases, including risk-adjusted performance and the 200-day moving average.

Duong引用了一些指標，以指出加密貨幣市場何時在牛市和熊市階段之間移動，包括經過風險調整的績效和200天的移動平均線。

Another metric was the Bitcoin (BTC) Z-score, which compares market value and realized value to identify overbought and oversold conditions. A Z-score shows how unusual current price performance is when compared to historical data.

另一個指標是比特幣（BTC）Z-Score，它比較了市場價值和實現價值，以識別過度購買和超賣條件。 Z分數顯示了與歷史數據相比，當前價格績效的不尋常性。

This metric “naturally accounts for crypto’s larger volatility,” but it is also slower to react. The metric tends to generate few signals in stable markets. Coinbase’s model, based on it, determined that the bull market ended in late February but has since deemed the market neutral.

該指標“自然說明了加密貨幣的更大波動”，但反應也較慢。該指標傾向於在穩定的市場中產生很少的信號。基於IT，Coinbase的模型確定了牛市於2月下旬結束，但此後一直認為市場中立。

Instead, Coinbase’s analyst suggested that the 200-day moving average is a better indicator for determining market trends. It smooths out short-term noise while being relevant by considering the last 200 days’ worth of market data.

相反，Coinbase的分析師建議，200天移動平均線是確定市場趨勢的更好指標。通過考慮最近200天的市場數據價值，它可以平滑短期噪音，同時相關。

The report also said that gauging the broader crypto market’s trend by the direction in which Bitcoin is moving is increasingly less reliable. This is because crypto expands into new sectors with decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), artificial intelligence agents, and more, all with particular market forces independent of Bitcoin.

該報告還說，通過比特幣移動的方向來衡量更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的趨勢越來越少。這是因為加密貨幣擴展到具有分散的金融（DEFI），分散的物理基礎設施網絡（DEPIN），人工智能代理等新領域，所有這些都與獨立於比特幣的特定市場力量。

Duong points out that the 200-day moving average suggests that Bitcoin’s recent decline moved it into bear market territory in late March. Still, applying the same model to the Coin50 Coinbase index based on the top 50 crypto assets shows a bear market since the end of February.

Duong指出，200天的移動平均線表明，比特幣最近的下降將其在3月下旬將其轉移到了熊市領域。儘管如此，根據2月底以來，基於前50個加密貨幣資產將相同的模型應用於Coin50 Coinbase指數，這表明了熊市。

Recent reports indicated that Bitcoin is showing growing resilience to macroeconomic headwinds compared with traditional financial markets. Bitcoin’s decline was comparatively modest, revisiting price levels from around the US election period, according to Wintermute.

最近的報導表明，與傳統金融市場相比，比特幣對宏觀經濟逆風的彈性越來越強。根據溫特姆特（Wintermute）的數據，比特幣的下降相對謙虛，從美國大選期間重新審視了價格水平。

Duong sees Bitcoin becoming less of a generalized crypto indicator as a consequence of this trend. He wrote:

Duong認為，由於這一趨勢，比特幣變得不再是普遍的加密指標。他寫道：