CoInbase月度市场评论：随着新加密冬季套装，比特币（BTC）Altcoin市值缩小了40％

公开交易的总部位于美国的加密交易所Coinbase的AMR报告表明，尽管加密货币市场已签约，但它似乎正在为一个更好的季度做好准备。

The crypto market has contracted but appears to be gearing up for a better quarter. According to Coinbase’s April 15 monthly outlook for institutional investors, the altcoin market cap shrank by 41% from its December 2024 highs of $1.6 trillion to $950 billion by mid-April. BTC Tools data shows that this metric touched a low of $906.9 billion on April 9 and stood at $976.9 billion at the time of writing.

加密货币市场已签约，但似乎正在为一个更好的季度做好准备。根据Coinbase 4月15日针对机构投资者的每月展望，从2024年12月中旬到4月中旬，Altcoin市值从其2024年12月的高点为1.6万亿美元，至9500亿美元。 BTC工具数据显示，该指标在4月9日触及了9.069亿美元的低价，并在撰写本文时为9769亿美元。

Venture capital funding to crypto projects has reportedly decreased by 50%–60% from 2021–22. In the report, Coinbase’s global head of research, David Duong, highlighted that a new crypto winter may be upon us.

据报道，向加密项目的风险投资资金从2021 - 22年开始下降了50％–60％。在报告中，Coinbase的全球研究负责人David Duong强调说，新的加密冬季可能正在临近我们。

“Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new ‘crypto winter’ as some extreme negative sentiment has set in due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations,” he said.

他说：“由于全球关税的发作和进一步升级的潜力，几个融合的信号可能指出了新的'加密冬季'的开始。”

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The report notes that lower venture capitalist interest “significantly limits the onboarding of new capital into the ecosystem,” which is felt primarily in the altcoin sector. The cause of that, according to Duong, is the current macroeconomic environment:

该报告指出，较低的风险资本主义权益“显着限制了新资本进入生态系统的登机”，这主要在Altcoin部门感到。根据Duong的说法，原因是当前的宏观经济环境：

According to Coinbase researchers, those facts have resulted in “a difficult cyclical outlook for the digital asset space,” and warrant continued caution in the next four to six weeks. Still, the report’s author said that the market is likely to change directions explosively:

根据Coinbase研究人员的说法，这些事实导致“数字资产空间的艰难周期性前景”，并在未来四到六周内继续谨慎。报告的作者仍然说，市场可能会爆炸性地改变方向：

Duong cited some metrics to indicate when the crypto market is moving between bull and bear market phases, including risk-adjusted performance and the 200-day moving average.

Duong引用了一些指标，以指出加密货币市场何时在牛市和熊市阶段之间移动，包括经过风险调整的绩效和200天的移动平均线。

Another metric was the Bitcoin (BTC) Z-score, which compares market value and realized value to identify overbought and oversold conditions. A Z-score shows how unusual current price performance is when compared to historical data.

另一个指标是比特币（BTC）Z-Score，它比较了市场价值和实现价值，以识别过度购买和超卖条件。 Z分数显示了与历史数据相比，当前价格绩效的不寻常性。

This metric “naturally accounts for crypto’s larger volatility,” but it is also slower to react. The metric tends to generate few signals in stable markets. Coinbase’s model, based on it, determined that the bull market ended in late February but has since deemed the market neutral.

该指标“自然说明了加密货币的更大波动”，但反应也较慢。该指标倾向于在稳定的市场中产生很少的信号。基于IT，Coinbase的模型确定了牛市于2月下旬结束，但此后一直认为市场中立。

Instead, Coinbase’s analyst suggested that the 200-day moving average is a better indicator for determining market trends. It smooths out short-term noise while being relevant by considering the last 200 days’ worth of market data.

相反，Coinbase的分析师建议，200天移动平均线是确定市场趋势的更好指标。通过考虑最近200天的市场数据价值，它可以平滑短期噪音，同时相关。

The report also said that gauging the broader crypto market’s trend by the direction in which Bitcoin is moving is increasingly less reliable. This is because crypto expands into new sectors with decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), artificial intelligence agents, and more, all with particular market forces independent of Bitcoin.

该报告还说，通过比特币移动的方向来衡量更广泛的加密货币市场的趋势越来越少。这是因为加密货币扩展到具有分散的金融（DEFI），分散的物理基础设施网络（DEPIN），人工智能代理等新领域，所有这些都与独立于比特币的特定市场力量。

Duong points out that the 200-day moving average suggests that Bitcoin’s recent decline moved it into bear market territory in late March. Still, applying the same model to the Coin50 Coinbase index based on the top 50 crypto assets shows a bear market since the end of February.

Duong指出，200天的移动平均线表明，比特币最近的下降将其在3月下旬将其转移到了熊市领域。尽管如此，根据2月底以来，基于前50个加密货币资产将相同的模型应用于Coin50 Coinbase指数，这表明了熊市。

Recent reports indicated that Bitcoin is showing growing resilience to macroeconomic headwinds compared with traditional financial markets. Bitcoin’s decline was comparatively modest, revisiting price levels from around the US election period, according to Wintermute.

最近的报道表明，与传统金融市场相比，比特币对宏观经济逆风的弹性越来越强。根据温特姆特（Wintermute）的数据，比特币的下降相对谦虚，从美国大选期间重新审视了价格水平。

Duong sees Bitcoin becoming less of a generalized crypto indicator as a consequence of this trend. He wrote:

Duong认为，由于这一趋势，比特币变得不再是普遍的加密指标。他写道：