當貝萊德將經濟衰退視為比特幣的跳板時，美聯儲冷卻了加密的熱情

在大膽的預測和經濟警告之間，市場在模糊的水域中航行。

As the shadows of recession lengthen and the dust settles on a turbulent year for bitcoin, the scene is set for an economic drama with the potential for surprising twists.

隨著經濟衰退的陰影延長，塵埃在比特幣的動盪一年中沉降了，場景將為一部經濟戲劇而產生令人驚訝的曲折。

While crypto behemoth BlackRock is positioning bitcoin as the springboard out of the crisis, the Federal Reserve appears to be cooling the enthusiasm of the crypto universe.

儘管加密龐然大物貝萊德（Blackrock）將比特幣定位為危機中的跳板，但美聯儲似乎正在冷卻加密貨幣宇宙的熱情。

Between bold predictions and stark economic warnings, the market is navigating murky waters.

在大膽的預測和鮮明的經濟警告之間，市場正在瀏覽模糊的水域。

Why the crisis could be a ‘great catalyst’ for bitcoin

為什麼危機可能是比特幣的“偉大催化劑”

In a statement that has sent ripples through the cryptosphere, Robbie Mitchnick, crypto strategist at BlackRock, recently asserted that a recession would be a “great catalyst” for bitcoin.

貝萊德（Blackrock）的加密策略師羅比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）在一份通過加密賽的聲明中，最近聲稱，經濟衰退將是比特幣的“偉大催化劑”。

An iconoclastic reasoning, to be sure, yet Mitchnick's claim is founded on a deep understanding of macroeconomic cycles and institutional behavior.

可以肯定的是，米奇尼克的主張是基於對宏觀經濟周期和製度行為的深刻理解的。

Since the cataclysmic events of 2008, which unfolded in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis, we have witnessed systemic crises often serving to propel alternative assets.

自2008年的災難性事件發生以來，在次級抵押危機之後發生了，我們已經目睹了系統性危機經常用於推動替代資產。

In the aftermath of such crises, governments and central banks typically intervene with large-scale stimulus plans, maintain low interest rates for extended periods, and preside over an explosion of public deficits, ultimately fueling distrust towards fiat currencies.

在這種危機之後，政府和中央銀行通常會干預大規模的刺激計劃，維持長時間的低利率，並主持公共赤字的爆炸，最終助長了對法定貨幣的不信任。

This scenario, according to Mitchnick, would play directly into the hands of bitcoin, which is increasingly being viewed by investors as an 'anti-crash insurance' policy.

根據米奇尼克（Mitchnick）的說法，這種情況將直接發揮到比特幣的手中，投資者越來越多地將其視為“反爆炸保險”政策。

However, this optimistic perspective is also juxtaposed by Mitchnick's own warning of the risks of “social disorder” in the event of a recession—an explosive variable that is often absent from economists' models.

但是，這種樂觀的觀點也與米奇尼克（Mitchnick）自身在經濟衰退時對“社會障礙”風險的警告並列，這種爆炸性變量通常是經濟學家模型中不存在的。

In this instance, bitcoin, a haven in times of chaos, would benefit as the fabric of trust in institutions continues to unravel.

在這種情況下，隨著機構信任的結構不斷破產，比特幣是混亂時期的避風港。

This hypothesis is reminiscent of bitcoin's rise during the 2020 lockdowns, where it surged in response to massive monetary printing and the ensuing economic turmoil.

這一假設讓人聯想到比特幣在2020年鎖定期間的上升，在那裡它響應了大規模的貨幣印刷和隨之而來的經濟動盪。

The implications of Trump's trade policies

特朗普的貿易政策的影響

On a related note, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has openly linked the Trump administration's trade policies to a risk of stagflation—a macroeconomic scenario that economists have been warning about for months.

與之相關的是，貝萊德（Blackrock）首席執行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）公開將特朗普政府的貿易政策與陷阱的風險聯繫起來，這是經濟學家已經警告幾個月的宏觀經濟方案。

According to Fink, bitcoin could serve as a hedge against this nightmarish scenario, an assertion that has been met with skepticism in some quarters.

根據芬克的說法，比特幣可以作為對這種噩夢般的場景的對沖，這一斷言在某些方面受到了懷疑。

This audacious bet comes as the price of bitcoin has dropped to $85,000 after peaking at $110,000 in January.

這個大膽的賭注是因為比特幣的價格在一月份達到110,000美元之後的價格下降至85,000美元。

Despite this decline, bitcoin's volatility remains a constant, even as BlackRock's bitcoin ETFs, which hold $50 billion in assets, attest to the institution's belief in the maturation of the crypto market.

儘管有這種下降，但比特幣的波動率仍然是一個恆定的，即使貝萊德的比特幣ETF（持有500億美元的資產）證明了該機構對加密貨幣市場成熟的信念。

The Fed strikes back: A warning that mull over enthusiasm

美聯儲反擊：警告說，這是對熱情的思考

In a recent statement, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, dampened enthusiasm for bitcoin as he warned that the risks of recession had increased but remained moderate.

美聯儲董事長杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在最近的一份聲明中削弱了對比特幣的熱情，他警告說，經濟衰退的風險有所增加，但保持溫和。

According to Powell, the US economy was still coping well with the recent series of interest rate hikes, even as inflation remained stubbornly high.

根據鮑威爾的說法，即使通貨膨脹率仍然很高，美國經濟仍在很好地應對最近的一系列利率上升。

This cautious speech, delivered at an economic summit in France, was heavy with implications. Among other things, Powell stated that the Fed did not plan to be the savior of the economy with hasty rate cuts, especially since the labor market was still strong and inflation was proving sticky.

在法國的一次經濟峰會上發表的這種謹慎的言論充滿了影響。鮑威爾（Powell）表示，除其他事項外，美聯儲不打算以倉促降低利率成為經濟的救世主，尤其是因為勞動力市場仍然強勁並且通貨膨脹被證明是棘手的。

For bitcoin, which is often boosted by periods of cheap credit, this announcement acts as a brake on its potential for further rally.

對於通常會受到廉價信貸時期的提升的比特幣，此公告可以剎車進一步集會。

Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody's, also weighed in on the matter, asserting that Trump's tariffs on goods from China had served to accelerate an "inevitable" recession.

穆迪（Moody's）的經濟學家馬克·贊迪（Mark Zandi）也對此事進行了權衡，他斷言特朗普對中國商品的關稅已經加快了“不可避免的”經濟衰退。

According to Zandi, the Trump administration's economic policies, which were focused on protectionist measures and trade friction, ultimately destabilized the global economic system.

根據Zandi的說法，專注於保護主義措施和貿易摩擦的特朗普政府的經濟政策最終破壞了全球經濟體系的穩定。

Furthermore, Clement Bohr, an economist at UCLA, went so far as to say that the Trump administration's actions could lead to a "deep" crisis, especially given the administration's handling of trade disputes and immigration policy.

此外，加州大學洛杉磯分校（UCLA）的經濟學家克萊門特·鮑爾（Clement Bohr）甚至說，特朗普政府的行動可能導致“深”危機，特別是考慮到政府處理貿易糾紛和移民政策的情況。

These alerts, which are being issued by economists affiliated with major institutions, come at a crucial moment, especially considering the recent turmoil in the bitcoin market.

這些警報是由主要機構隸屬的經濟學家發出的，這是一個關鍵時刻，尤其是考慮到比特幣市場最近的動盪。

The question that remains is whether bitcoin will ultimately thrive because of crises or despite them.

剩下的問題是，比特幣最終會因為危機還是由於危機而蓬勃發展。

In this context, bitcoin ETFs appear to be an ambiguous barometer of institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. Despite their meteoric success—amassing $100 billion in assets by November—their growth has slowed since the Federal Reserve's warnings.

在這種情況下，比特幣ETF似乎是加密貨幣制度興趣的模棱兩可的晴雨表。儘管取得了眾多的成功，但自11月的資產增長了1000億美元，但自聯邦儲備的警告以來，他們的增長卻放慢了。

It seems that institutional investors, torn between their appetite for bitcoin and macroeconomic caution, are adopting a sawtooth strategy.

看來，機構投資者在對比特幣和宏觀經濟謹慎的胃口之間撕裂，正在採用鋸齒策略。

Nevertheless, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, remains steadfast in its bet on a "recessionary bitcoin," an assertion that continues to defy skeptics.

儘管如此，世界上最大的資產經理貝萊克仍然堅定地押注“經濟衰退比特幣”，這一主張繼續違背懷疑論者。

As this new chapter in the saga of bitcoin unfolds, large investors are

隨著比特幣傳奇中的新章節的展開，大型投資者是