当贝莱德将经济衰退视为比特币的跳板时，美联储冷却了加密的热情

在大胆的预测和经济警告之间，市场在模糊的水域中航行。

As the shadows of recession lengthen and the dust settles on a turbulent year for bitcoin, the scene is set for an economic drama with the potential for surprising twists.

随着经济衰退的阴影延长，尘埃在比特币的动荡一年中沉降了，场景将为一部经济戏剧而产生令人惊讶的曲折。

While crypto behemoth BlackRock is positioning bitcoin as the springboard out of the crisis, the Federal Reserve appears to be cooling the enthusiasm of the crypto universe.

尽管加密庞然大物贝莱德（Blackrock）将比特币定位为危机中的跳板，但美联储似乎正在冷却加密货币宇宙的热情。

Between bold predictions and stark economic warnings, the market is navigating murky waters.

在大胆的预测和鲜明的经济警告之间，市场正在浏览模糊的水域。

Why the crisis could be a ‘great catalyst’ for bitcoin

为什么危机可能是比特币的“伟大催化剂”

In a statement that has sent ripples through the cryptosphere, Robbie Mitchnick, crypto strategist at BlackRock, recently asserted that a recession would be a “great catalyst” for bitcoin.

贝莱德（Blackrock）的加密策略师罗比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）在一份通过加密赛的声明中，最近声称，经济衰退将是比特币的“伟大催化剂”。

An iconoclastic reasoning, to be sure, yet Mitchnick's claim is founded on a deep understanding of macroeconomic cycles and institutional behavior.

可以肯定的是，米奇尼克的主张是基于对宏观经济周期和制度行为的深刻理解的。

Since the cataclysmic events of 2008, which unfolded in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis, we have witnessed systemic crises often serving to propel alternative assets.

自2008年的灾难性事件发生以来，在次级抵押危机之后发生了，我们已经目睹了系统性危机经常用于推动替代资产。

In the aftermath of such crises, governments and central banks typically intervene with large-scale stimulus plans, maintain low interest rates for extended periods, and preside over an explosion of public deficits, ultimately fueling distrust towards fiat currencies.

在这种危机之后，政府和中央银行通常会干预大规模的刺激计划，维持长时间的低利率，并主持公共赤字的爆炸，最终助长了对法定货币的不信任。

This scenario, according to Mitchnick, would play directly into the hands of bitcoin, which is increasingly being viewed by investors as an 'anti-crash insurance' policy.

根据米奇尼克（Mitchnick）的说法，这种情况将直接发挥到比特币的手中，投资者越来越多地将其视为“反爆炸保险”政策。

However, this optimistic perspective is also juxtaposed by Mitchnick's own warning of the risks of “social disorder” in the event of a recession—an explosive variable that is often absent from economists' models.

但是，这种乐观的观点也与米奇尼克（Mitchnick）自身在经济衰退时对“社会障碍”风险的警告并列，这种爆炸性变量通常是经济学家模型中不存在的。

In this instance, bitcoin, a haven in times of chaos, would benefit as the fabric of trust in institutions continues to unravel.

在这种情况下，随着机构信任的结构不断破产，比特币是混乱时期的避风港。

This hypothesis is reminiscent of bitcoin's rise during the 2020 lockdowns, where it surged in response to massive monetary printing and the ensuing economic turmoil.

这一假设让人联想到比特币在2020年锁定期间的上升，在那里它响应了大规模的货币印刷和随之而来的经济动荡。

The implications of Trump's trade policies

特朗普的贸易政策的影响

On a related note, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has openly linked the Trump administration's trade policies to a risk of stagflation—a macroeconomic scenario that economists have been warning about for months.

与之相关的是，贝莱德（Blackrock）首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）公开将特朗普政府的贸易政策与陷阱的风险联系起来，这是经济学家已经警告几个月的宏观经济方案。

According to Fink, bitcoin could serve as a hedge against this nightmarish scenario, an assertion that has been met with skepticism in some quarters.

根据芬克的说法，比特币可以作为对这种噩梦般的场景的对冲，这一断言在某些方面受到了怀疑。

This audacious bet comes as the price of bitcoin has dropped to $85,000 after peaking at $110,000 in January.

这个大胆的赌注是因为比特币的价格在一月份达到110,000美元之后的价格下降至85,000美元。

Despite this decline, bitcoin's volatility remains a constant, even as BlackRock's bitcoin ETFs, which hold $50 billion in assets, attest to the institution's belief in the maturation of the crypto market.

尽管有这种下降，但比特币的波动率仍然是一个恒定的，即使贝莱德的比特币ETF（持有500亿美元的资产）证明了该机构对加密货币市场成熟的信念。

The Fed strikes back: A warning that mull over enthusiasm

美联储反击：警告说，这是对热情的思考

In a recent statement, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, dampened enthusiasm for bitcoin as he warned that the risks of recession had increased but remained moderate.

美联储董事长杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在最近的一份声明中削弱了对比特币的热情，他警告说，经济衰退的风险有所增加，但保持温和。

According to Powell, the US economy was still coping well with the recent series of interest rate hikes, even as inflation remained stubbornly high.

根据鲍威尔的说法，即使通货膨胀率仍然很高，美国经济仍在很好地应对最近的一系列利率上升。

This cautious speech, delivered at an economic summit in France, was heavy with implications. Among other things, Powell stated that the Fed did not plan to be the savior of the economy with hasty rate cuts, especially since the labor market was still strong and inflation was proving sticky.

在法国的一次经济峰会上发表的这种谨慎的言论充满了影响。鲍威尔（Powell）表示，除其他事项外，美联储不打算以仓促降低利率成为经济的救世主，尤其是因为劳动力市场仍然强劲并且通货膨胀被证明是棘手的。

For bitcoin, which is often boosted by periods of cheap credit, this announcement acts as a brake on its potential for further rally.

对于通常会受到廉价信贷时期的提升的比特币，此公告可以刹车进一步集会。

Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody's, also weighed in on the matter, asserting that Trump's tariffs on goods from China had served to accelerate an "inevitable" recession.

穆迪（Moody's）的经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）也对此事进行了权衡，他断言特朗普对中国商品的关税已经加快了“不可避免的”经济衰退。

According to Zandi, the Trump administration's economic policies, which were focused on protectionist measures and trade friction, ultimately destabilized the global economic system.

根据Zandi的说法，专注于保护主义措施和贸易摩擦的特朗普政府的经济政策最终破坏了全球经济体系的稳定。

Furthermore, Clement Bohr, an economist at UCLA, went so far as to say that the Trump administration's actions could lead to a "deep" crisis, especially given the administration's handling of trade disputes and immigration policy.

此外，加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLA）的经济学家克莱门特·鲍尔（Clement Bohr）甚至说，特朗普政府的行动可能导致“深”危机，特别是考虑到政府处理贸易纠纷和移民政策的情况。

These alerts, which are being issued by economists affiliated with major institutions, come at a crucial moment, especially considering the recent turmoil in the bitcoin market.

这些警报是由主要机构隶属的经济学家发出的，这是一个关键时刻，尤其是考虑到比特币市场最近的动荡。

The question that remains is whether bitcoin will ultimately thrive because of crises or despite them.

剩下的问题是，比特币最终会因为危机还是由于危机而蓬勃发展。

In this context, bitcoin ETFs appear to be an ambiguous barometer of institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. Despite their meteoric success—amassing $100 billion in assets by November—their growth has slowed since the Federal Reserve's warnings.

在这种情况下，比特币ETF似乎是加密货币制度兴趣的模棱两可的晴雨表。尽管取得了众多的成功，但自11月的资产增长了1000亿美元，但自联邦储备的警告以来，他们的增长却放慢了。

It seems that institutional investors, torn between their appetite for bitcoin and macroeconomic caution, are adopting a sawtooth strategy.

看来，机构投资者在对比特币和宏观经济谨慎的胃口之间撕裂，正在采用锯齿策略。

Nevertheless, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, remains steadfast in its bet on a "recessionary bitcoin," an assertion that continues to defy skeptics.

尽管如此，世界上最大的资产经理贝莱克仍然坚定地押注“经济衰退比特币”，这一主张继续违背怀疑论者。

As this new chapter in the saga of bitcoin unfolds, large investors are

随着比特币传奇中的新章节的展开，大型投资者是