Bitfinex Alpha報告 - Crypto市場收縮加深了通貨膨脹，政策風險重點

隨著機構需求和宏觀經濟壓力的衰落，比特幣在90天內的$ 91,000至102,000美元之間的交易量超過90天

Bitcoin’s price remained largely stagnant over the past 90 days, with a narrow trading range of $91,000 to $102,000. A Bitfinex Alpha Report attributed this lack of momentum to waning institutional demand and macroeconomic pressures.

在過去的90天內，比特幣的價格在很大程度上停滯不前，交易範圍為91,000美元至102,000美元。 Bitfinex alpha報告歸因於這種勢頭的缺乏，這減輕了製度需求和宏觀經濟壓力。

The report highlighted bitcoin’s brief volatility spike on Feb. 21, coinciding with a $1.5 billion hack of crypto exchange Bybit. Amidst broader equity market turbulence, bitcoin experienced a 4.7% intraday drop before partially recovering.

該報告強調了比特幣在2月21日的簡短波動率飆升，與15億美元的加密交易所Bybit相吻合。在更廣泛的股票市場動盪中，比特幣在部分恢復之前經歷了4.7％的盤中下降。

According to the report, a broader crypto market correction occurred, with solana (SOL), meme coins, and ether (ETH) declining by 16.9% to 37.4% in February following late-2024 rallies.

根據該報告，發生了更廣泛的加密貨幣市場更正，索拉納（Sol），模因硬幣和以太（Ether）（ETH）在2024年下半年集會後的2月下降了16.9％至37.4％。

The Bitfinex report also noted a sharp decline in institutional participation, with U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experiencing net outflows of $360 million on Feb. 20 alone. This contrasted sharply with peak inflows of 18,000 BTC daily during November.

Bitfinex報告還指出，機構參與的急劇下降，僅2月20日，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的淨外出額為3.6億美元。這與每天在11月的每天18,000 BTC的峰值流入形成鮮明對比。

Moreover, the report highlighted the challenges faced by crypto in the current economic climate, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to a 15-month low in February.

此外，該報告強調了加密在當前經濟環境中面臨的挑戰，密歇根大學的消費者情感指數在2月下降到15個月的低點。

Additionally, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3%, presenting obstacles to the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation.

此外，一年的通貨膨脹預期增長到4.3％，這給美聯儲遏制通貨膨脹的努力帶來了障礙。

According to Bitfinex market strategists, proposed U.S. tariffs and a decline in new home construction (-8.4%) in January due to material costs and high mortgage rates further contributed to the economic headwinds.

根據Bitfinex市場戰略家的說法，由於材料成本和高抵押貸款利率進一步導致了經濟逆風，因此1月份的美國關稅和新房屋建設的下降（-8.4％）。

The report also noted bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, specifically the S&P 500’s struggle to maintain levels above 6,000, which dampened risk appetite.

該報告還指出，比特幣與傳統市場的相關性，特別是標準普爾500標準普爾500指數以維持6,000以上的水平，從而抑制了風險食慾。

The report concluded that declining leveraged trading activity, evident in yearly lows for bitcoin (-11.1%) and ethereum (-23.8%) in open interest, indicated a "broader market contraction."

該報告得出的結論是，槓桿交易活動的下降，比特幣（-11.1％）和以太坊（-23.8％）的年度低點降低了槓桿交易活動，這表明“更廣泛的市場收縮”。

Among crypto-specific developments, the report highlighted Strategy’s $2 billion convertible notes offering to finance bitcoin acquisitions. Additionally, Howard Lutnick's confirmation as U.S. Commerce Secretary was noted, which Bitfine benches suggested could lead to easing crypto regulations.

在特定於加密特定的開發中，該報告強調了策略的20億美元可轉換票據，用於為比特幣收購提供資金。此外，指出了霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnick）作為美國商務部長的確認，比特·萊特（Bitfine）認為這可能導致緩解加密法規。

However, the Bybit hack, reportedly attributed to North Korea's Lazarus Group, remained a persistent concern, contributing to market suppression. Despite this, the report mentioned potential ether (ETH) buybacks that could offset selling pressure.

但是，據報導歸因於朝鮮拉撒路集團的拜比特黑客仍然是一個持久的關注，這導致了市場抑制。儘管如此，該報告提到了可能抵消銷售壓力的潛在以太（ETH）回購。

The Bitfinex market analysis concluded by emphasizing the dependence of bitcoin's next decisive move on macro trends and advised caution as markets awaited further catalysts.

Bitfinex市場分析結論是強調比特幣對宏觀趨勢的下一個決定性舉動的依賴性，並在市場等待進一步的催化劑時謹慎行事。

"Cooling demand on the spot side has led to a substantial drop in perpetual open interest (OI) across all major assets, indicating a reduction in speculative activity and lower cash-and-carry yields," the report stated.

報告說：“現貨方面的冷卻需求導致所有主要資產的永久性開放興趣（OI）大幅下降，這表明投機活動的減少和現金和攜帶的收益率降低。”