Bitfinex Alpha报告 - Crypto市场收缩加深了通货膨胀，政策风险重点

随着机构需求和宏观经济压力的衰落，比特币在90天内的$ 91,000至102,000美元之间的交易量超过90天

Bitcoin’s price remained largely stagnant over the past 90 days, with a narrow trading range of $91,000 to $102,000. A Bitfinex Alpha Report attributed this lack of momentum to waning institutional demand and macroeconomic pressures.

在过去的90天内，比特币的价格在很大程度上停滞不前，交易范围为91,000美元至102,000美元。 Bitfinex alpha报告归因于这种势头的缺乏，这减轻了制度需求和宏观经济压力。

The report highlighted bitcoin’s brief volatility spike on Feb. 21, coinciding with a $1.5 billion hack of crypto exchange Bybit. Amidst broader equity market turbulence, bitcoin experienced a 4.7% intraday drop before partially recovering.

该报告强调了比特币在2月21日的简短波动率飙升，与15亿美元的加密交易所Bybit相吻合。在更广泛的股票市场动荡中，比特币在部分恢复之前经历了4.7％的盘中下降。

According to the report, a broader crypto market correction occurred, with solana (SOL), meme coins, and ether (ETH) declining by 16.9% to 37.4% in February following late-2024 rallies.

根据该报告，发生了更广泛的加密货币市场更正，索拉纳（Sol），模因硬币和以太（Ether）（ETH）在2024年下半年集会后的2月下降了16.9％至37.4％。

The Bitfinex report also noted a sharp decline in institutional participation, with U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experiencing net outflows of $360 million on Feb. 20 alone. This contrasted sharply with peak inflows of 18,000 BTC daily during November.

Bitfinex报告还指出，机构参与的急剧下降，仅2月20日，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的净外出额为3.6亿美元。这与每天在11月的每天18,000 BTC的峰值流入形成鲜明对比。

Moreover, the report highlighted the challenges faced by crypto in the current economic climate, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to a 15-month low in February.

此外，该报告强调了加密在当前经济环境中面临的挑战，密歇根大学的消费者情感指数在2月下降到15个月的低点。

Additionally, one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3%, presenting obstacles to the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation.

此外，一年的通货膨胀预期增长到4.3％，这给美联储遏制通货膨胀的努力带来了障碍。

According to Bitfinex market strategists, proposed U.S. tariffs and a decline in new home construction (-8.4%) in January due to material costs and high mortgage rates further contributed to the economic headwinds.

根据Bitfinex市场战略家的说法，由于材料成本和高抵押贷款利率进一步导致了经济逆风，因此1月份的美国关税和新房屋建设的下降（-8.4％）。

The report also noted bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, specifically the S&P 500’s struggle to maintain levels above 6,000, which dampened risk appetite.

该报告还指出，比特币与传统市场的相关性，特别是标准普尔500标准普尔500指数以维持6,000以上的水平，从而抑制了风险食欲。

The report concluded that declining leveraged trading activity, evident in yearly lows for bitcoin (-11.1%) and ethereum (-23.8%) in open interest, indicated a "broader market contraction."

该报告得出的结论是，杠杆交易活动的下降，比特币（-11.1％）和以太坊（-23.8％）的年度低点降低了杠杆交易活动，这表明“更广泛的市场收缩”。

Among crypto-specific developments, the report highlighted Strategy’s $2 billion convertible notes offering to finance bitcoin acquisitions. Additionally, Howard Lutnick's confirmation as U.S. Commerce Secretary was noted, which Bitfine benches suggested could lead to easing crypto regulations.

在特定于加密特定的开发中，该报告强调了策略的20亿美元可转换票据，用于为比特币收购提供资金。此外，指出了霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）作为美国商务部长的确认，比特·莱特（Bitfine）认为这可能导致缓解加密法规。

However, the Bybit hack, reportedly attributed to North Korea's Lazarus Group, remained a persistent concern, contributing to market suppression. Despite this, the report mentioned potential ether (ETH) buybacks that could offset selling pressure.

但是，据报道归因于朝鲜拉撒路集团的拜比特黑客仍然是一个持久的关注，这导致了市场抑制。尽管如此，该报告提到了可能抵消销售压力的潜在以太（ETH）回购。

The Bitfinex market analysis concluded by emphasizing the dependence of bitcoin's next decisive move on macro trends and advised caution as markets awaited further catalysts.

Bitfinex市场分析结论是强调比特币对宏观趋势的下一个决定性举动的依赖性，并在市场等待进一步的催化剂时谨慎行事。

"Cooling demand on the spot side has led to a substantial drop in perpetual open interest (OI) across all major assets, indicating a reduction in speculative activity and lower cash-and-carry yields," the report stated.

报告说：“现货方面的冷却需求导致所有主要资产的永久性开放兴趣（OI）大幅下降，这表明投机活动的减少和现金和携带的收益率降低。”