比特幣在減半前徘徊在十字路口，市場訊號暗示進一步下跌

由於市場指標和指標暗示價格進一步下跌，比特幣 (BTC) 在過去 24 小時內下跌了 4.5% 以上。隨著比特幣 [BTC] 即將經歷第四次減半事件僅幾個小時，人們的預期就快結束了。伊朗-以色列戰線近期事態發展導致比特幣大幅下跌（市場觀察） Coinbase 上市後，Solana 的頭號meme 代幣飆升15%：詳細資料Exec – 比特幣減半後預測比特幣將觸及20 萬美元伊朗不太可能立即進行報復：比特幣價格飆升至 $65k 隨著 $1.3B 比特幣選擇權即將到期，BTC 能否保持在 60k 以上？這個過程的重要性引發了人們對金幣價格在未來可能如何反應的許多猜測。為了了解 BTC 減半後的預期，AMBCrypto 對 BTC 的鏈上資料進行了分析。

Bitcoin Poised at a Crossroads as Halving Nears, Market Metrics Hint at Further Decline

隨著減半臨近，比特幣處於十字路口，市場指標暗示進一步下跌

Introduction

介紹

The highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving event is just hours away, and the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with speculation about its potential impact. This halving, the fourth of its kind, will reduce the block reward for Bitcoin miners by half, a pivotal event that has historically influenced the asset's price trajectory.

距離備受期待的比特幣減半事件只剩下幾個小時了，加密貨幣市場對其潛在影響的猜測甚囂塵上。這是第四次減半，將使比特幣礦工的區塊獎勵減少一半，這是歷史上影響該資產價格軌蹟的關鍵事件。

Market Overview: Bearish Sentiments Dominate

市場概況：看跌情緒占主導地位

In the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin has faced significant volatility amidst geopolitical developments involving Iran and Israel. Despite a brief surge following news of Iran's restrained response, BTC has shed over 13% in value over the past week, dropping nearly 4.5% in the last 24 hours alone.

在減半之前，比特幣在涉及伊朗和以色列的地緣政治發展中面臨巨大的波動。儘管在伊朗採取克制反應的消息傳出後，比特幣價格短暫上漲，但過去一周比特幣價值已下跌超過 13%，僅在過去 24 小時內就下跌了近 4.5%。

As of writing, BTC trades at $60,995 with a market capitalization exceeding $1.2 trillion. Prominent crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that the market may experience a period of sideways movement before a potential upward impulse.

截至撰寫本文時，BTC 交易價格為 60,995 美元，市值超過 1.2 兆美元。著名加密貨幣分析師 Michael van de Poppe 表示，市場在潛在的上漲衝動之前可能會經歷一段橫盤整理期。

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Price Correction

鏈上指標顯示價格修正

An analysis of Bitcoin's on-chain data reveals several indicators that support the notion of a potential price correction. Glassnode's Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) has risen sharply since a steep decline on April 15th. Elevated NVT levels often signal overvaluation, implying a potential correction.

對比特幣鏈上數據的分析揭示了幾個支持潛在價格調整概念的指標。 Glassnode 的網路價值與交易比率（NVT）自 4 月 15 日急劇下降以來急劇上升。 NVT 水平升高通常預示著估值過高，意味著潛在的修正。

CryptoQuant's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) data indicates that BTC investors are currently in the "belief" phase, with a significant portion of their holdings in unrealized profit. However, the Average Spent Output Realized Price (aSORP) metric shows signs of optimism, suggesting that investors are selling at a loss. This behavior, common in bear markets, could point to a market bottom.

CryptoQuant 的未實現淨損益（NUPL）數據表明，BTC 投資者目前處於「信念」階段，其持有的很大一部分是未實現利潤。然而，平均支出產出實現價格（aSORP）指標顯示出樂觀跡象，顯示投資者正在虧本出售。這種行為在熊市中很常見，可能預示著市場底部。

Technical Indicators Remain Bearish

技術指標仍看跌

Despite the mixed on-chain signals, technical indicators remain bearish. BTC's Relative Strength Index (RSI), Money Flow Index (MFI), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) all indicate a downtrend. The MACD, in particular, shows clear bearish dominance, suggesting a continuation of the price decline.

儘管鏈上訊號好壞參半，但技術指標仍看跌。 BTC的相對強弱指數（RSI）、資金流向指數（MFI）和移動平均線收斂分歧（MACD）都顯示下降趨勢。尤其是 MACD，顯示出明顯的看跌主導地位，表明價格將繼續下跌。

Support Levels and Potential Downside

支援水平和潛在的下行空間

Analyzing data from Hyblock Capital, we identify potential support levels at which BTC may face significant selling pressure if the downtrend persists. The immediate support lies around $59,950. A sharp break below this level could trigger further selling, potentially pushing BTC toward $58,000, where a large number of BTC options contracts are set to expire.

透過分析 Hyblock Capital 的數據，我們確定了潛在的支撐位，如果下跌趨勢持續下去，BTC 可能會面臨巨大的拋售壓力。直接支撐位於 59,950 美元左右。大幅跌破該水平可能會引發進一步拋售，可能將 BTC 推向 58,000 美元，而大量 BTC 期權合約即將到期。

Conclusion: Uncertain Future Awaits

結論：不確定的未來等待著

As the Bitcoin halving approaches, the market remains uncertain about the asset's immediate price action. On-chain metrics suggest a potential correction, while technical indicators paint a bearish picture. The impact of the halving on price remains to be seen, and investors should tread with caution in the volatile days ahead.

隨著比特幣減半的臨近，市場對該資產的立即價格走勢仍不確定。鏈上指標顯示可能出現修正，而技術指標則描繪出看跌的景象。減半對價格的影響仍有待觀察，投資者在未來波動的日子裡應謹慎行事。