比特币在减半前徘徊在十字路口，市场信号暗示进一步下跌

由于市场指标和指标暗示价格进一步下跌，比特币 (BTC) 在过去 24 小时内下跌了 4.5% 以上。随着比特币 [BTC] 即将经历第四次减半事件仅几个小时，人们的预期就快结束了。伊朗-以色列战线近期事态发展导致比特币大幅下跌（市场观察） Coinbase 上市后，Solana 的头号 meme 代币飙升 15%：详细信息 Exec – 比特币减半后预测比特币将触及 20 万美元 伊朗不太可能立即进行报复：比特币价格飙升至 $65k 随着 $1.3B 比特币期权即将到期，BTC 能否保持在 60k 以上？这一过程的重要性引发了人们对金币价格在未来可能如何反应的诸多猜测。为了了解 BTC 减半后的预期，AMBCrypto 对 BTC 的链上数据进行了分析。

Bitcoin Poised at a Crossroads as Halving Nears, Market Metrics Hint at Further Decline

随着减半临近，比特币处于十字路口，市场指标暗示进一步下跌

Introduction

介绍

The highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving event is just hours away, and the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with speculation about its potential impact. This halving, the fourth of its kind, will reduce the block reward for Bitcoin miners by half, a pivotal event that has historically influenced the asset's price trajectory.

距离备受期待的比特币减半事件只剩下几个小时了，加密货币市场对其潜在影响的猜测甚嚣尘上。这是第四次减半，将使比特币矿工的区块奖励减少一半，这是历史上影响该资产价格轨迹的关键事件。

Market Overview: Bearish Sentiments Dominate

市场概况：看跌情绪占主导地位

In the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin has faced significant volatility amidst geopolitical developments involving Iran and Israel. Despite a brief surge following news of Iran's restrained response, BTC has shed over 13% in value over the past week, dropping nearly 4.5% in the last 24 hours alone.

在减半之前，比特币在涉及伊朗和以色列的地缘政治发展中面临着巨大的波动。尽管在伊朗采取克制反应的消息传出后，比特币价格出现短暂上涨，但过去一周比特币价值已下跌超过 13%，仅在过去 24 小时内就下跌了近 4.5%。

As of writing, BTC trades at $60,995 with a market capitalization exceeding $1.2 trillion. Prominent crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that the market may experience a period of sideways movement before a potential upward impulse.

截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 60,995 美元，市值超过 1.2 万亿美元。著名加密货币分析师 Michael van de Poppe 表示，市场在潜在的上涨冲动之前可能会经历一段横盘整理期。

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Price Correction

链上指标表明价格修正

An analysis of Bitcoin's on-chain data reveals several indicators that support the notion of a potential price correction. Glassnode's Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) has risen sharply since a steep decline on April 15th. Elevated NVT levels often signal overvaluation, implying a potential correction.

对比特币链上数据的分析揭示了几个支持潜在价格调整概念的指标。 Glassnode 的网络价值与交易比率（NVT）自 4 月 15 日急剧下降以来急剧​​上升。 NVT 水平升高通常预示着估值过高，意味着潜在的修正。

CryptoQuant's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) data indicates that BTC investors are currently in the "belief" phase, with a significant portion of their holdings in unrealized profit. However, the Average Spent Output Realized Price (aSORP) metric shows signs of optimism, suggesting that investors are selling at a loss. This behavior, common in bear markets, could point to a market bottom.

CryptoQuant 的未实现净损益（NUPL）数据表明，BTC 投资者目前处于“信念”阶段，其持有的很大一部分是未实现利润。然而，平均支出产出实现价格（aSORP）指标显示出乐观迹象，表明投资者正在亏本出售。这种行为在熊市中很常见，可能预示着市场底部。

Technical Indicators Remain Bearish

技术指标仍然看跌

Despite the mixed on-chain signals, technical indicators remain bearish. BTC's Relative Strength Index (RSI), Money Flow Index (MFI), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) all indicate a downtrend. The MACD, in particular, shows clear bearish dominance, suggesting a continuation of the price decline.

尽管链上信号好坏参半，但技术指标仍然看跌。 BTC的相对强弱指数（RSI）、资金流向指数（MFI）和移动平均线收敛分歧（MACD）均显示下降趋势。尤其是 MACD，显示出明显的看跌主导地位，表明价格将继续下跌。

Support Levels and Potential Downside

支持水平和潜在的下行空间

Analyzing data from Hyblock Capital, we identify potential support levels at which BTC may face significant selling pressure if the downtrend persists. The immediate support lies around $59,950. A sharp break below this level could trigger further selling, potentially pushing BTC toward $58,000, where a large number of BTC options contracts are set to expire.

通过分析 Hyblock Capital 的数据，我们确定了潜在的支撑位，如果下跌趋势持续下去，BTC 可能会面临巨大的抛售压力。直接支撑位于 59,950 美元左右。大幅跌破该水平可能会引发进一步抛售，可能将 BTC 推向 58,000 美元，而大量 BTC 期权合约即将到期。

Conclusion: Uncertain Future Awaits

结论：不确定的未来等待着

As the Bitcoin halving approaches, the market remains uncertain about the asset's immediate price action. On-chain metrics suggest a potential correction, while technical indicators paint a bearish picture. The impact of the halving on price remains to be seen, and investors should tread with caution in the volatile days ahead.

随着比特币减半的临近，市场对该资产的立即价格走势仍不确定。链上指标表明可能出现修正，而技术指标则描绘出看跌的景象。减半对价格的影响仍有待观察，投资者在未来波动的日子里应谨慎行事。