Bitcoin Teeters at Crossroads Ahead of Halving, Market Signals Hint at Further Decline

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by over 4.5% in the past 24 hours as market indicators and metrics hint at a further price drop. The anticipation is almost over as bitcoin [BTC] is just hours away from undergoing its fourth halving event. Bitcoin registers a sharp fall amid recent developments on the Iran-Israel front (Market Watch) Solana’s top meme coin spikes 15% after Coinbase listing: Details Exec – Post Bitcoin halving prediction sees BTC hitting $200k Iran unlikely to retaliate immediately: Bitcoin price spikes to $65k Can BTC hold above $60k as $1.3B Bitcoin options set to expire? The significance of the process has led to much speculation regarding how the king coin’s price might react in the time to come. In order to understand what to expect from BTC post halving, AMBCrypto undertook an analysis of BTC’s on-chain data.

Bitcoin Poised at a Crossroads as Halving Nears, Market Metrics Hint at Further Decline

Introduction

The highly anticipated Bitcoin [BTC] halving event is just hours away, and the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with speculation about its potential impact. This halving, the fourth of its kind, will reduce the block reward for Bitcoin miners by half, a pivotal event that has historically influenced the asset's price trajectory.

Market Overview: Bearish Sentiments Dominate

In the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin has faced significant volatility amidst geopolitical developments involving Iran and Israel. Despite a brief surge following news of Iran's restrained response, BTC has shed over 13% in value over the past week, dropping nearly 4.5% in the last 24 hours alone.

As of writing, BTC trades at $60,995 with a market capitalization exceeding $1.2 trillion. Prominent crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that the market may experience a period of sideways movement before a potential upward impulse.

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Price Correction

An analysis of Bitcoin's on-chain data reveals several indicators that support the notion of a potential price correction. Glassnode's Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) has risen sharply since a steep decline on April 15th. Elevated NVT levels often signal overvaluation, implying a potential correction.

CryptoQuant's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) data indicates that BTC investors are currently in the "belief" phase, with a significant portion of their holdings in unrealized profit. However, the Average Spent Output Realized Price (aSORP) metric shows signs of optimism, suggesting that investors are selling at a loss. This behavior, common in bear markets, could point to a market bottom.

Technical Indicators Remain Bearish

Despite the mixed on-chain signals, technical indicators remain bearish. BTC's Relative Strength Index (RSI), Money Flow Index (MFI), and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) all indicate a downtrend. The MACD, in particular, shows clear bearish dominance, suggesting a continuation of the price decline.

Support Levels and Potential Downside

Analyzing data from Hyblock Capital, we identify potential support levels at which BTC may face significant selling pressure if the downtrend persists. The immediate support lies around $59,950. A sharp break below this level could trigger further selling, potentially pushing BTC toward $58,000, where a large number of BTC options contracts are set to expire.

Conclusion: Uncertain Future Awaits

As the Bitcoin halving approaches, the market remains uncertain about the asset's immediate price action. On-chain metrics suggest a potential correction, while technical indicators paint a bearish picture. The impact of the halving on price remains to be seen, and investors should tread with caution in the volatile days ahead.