比特幣 2,100 萬供應上限只是嬰兒潮世代的神話

在比特幣的世界裡，有些事情是不可變的。然而，貝萊德最近發布的三分鐘比特幣講解影片中看似無傷大雅的免責聲明，引發了一場關於加密貨幣最神聖的原則之一的存在主義辯論：2,100 萬的供應上限。

This edition is brought to you by Infinity Hash. A transparent and reliable system to own part of a real mining farm.

此版本由 Infinity Hash 為您帶來。一個透明且可靠的系統，可以擁有真正的礦場的一部分。

Sign-up here and get 10% bonus shares on the first purchase👇

在這裡註冊，首次購買即可獲得 10% 紅利股票👇

Happy Sunday explorers 🍻 In today’s Rabbit hole we scratch our heads as to how BlackRock's footnote sparked a fundamental debate about Bitcoin's future.

探索者週日快樂🍻在今天的兔子洞中，我們對貝萊德的腳註如何引發關於比特幣未來的根本性辯論感到摸不著頭腦。

It’s a question that cuts to the heart of the debate: What happens when traditional finance's immense resources meet crypto's decentralised governance?

這是一個切入爭論核心的問題：當傳統金融的巨大資源遇到加密貨幣的去中心化治理時會發生什麼？

Consider signing up for a pay-what-you-want subscription to support our work - which is possible thanks to support from readers like you.

考慮註冊按需付費訂閱來支持我們的工作——這要歸功於像您這樣的讀者的支持。

Support Token Dispatch

支援代幣分發

If you want to reach out to 190,000+ subscriber community of the Token Dispatch, you can explore the partnership opportunities with us.

如果您想接觸 Token Dispatch 的 190,000 多個訂閱者社區，您可以探索與我們的合作機會。

In the world of Bitcoin, some things are meant to be immutable.

在比特幣的世界裡，有些事情是不可變的。

Yet a seemingly innocuous disclaimer in BlackRock's recent three-minute Bitcoin explainer video has sparked an existential debate about one of crypto's most sacred tenets: the 21 million supply cap.

然而，貝萊德最近發布的三分鐘比特幣講解影片中看似無傷大雅的免責聲明，引發了一場關於加密貨幣最神聖的原則之一的存在主義辯論：2,100 萬的供應上限。

"There is no guarantee that Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap will not be changed," read the footnote, causing a swift backlash from the crypto community.

註腳寫道：“無法保證比特幣 2,100 萬的供應上限不會改變”，這引起了加密社群的迅速強烈反對。

For traditionalists, it was like suggesting the rules of chess might suddenly allow pawns to move backwards.

對於傳統主義者來說，這就像暗示國際象棋規則可能突然允許棋子向後移動一樣。

Technically possible, but fundamentally against the game's nature.

技術上可行，但從根本上違背了遊戲的本質。

Wall Street's New Power Play

華爾街的新權力遊戲

The timing couldn't be more pointed.

時機再準確不過了。

BlackRock with over 550,000 Bitcoin (worth approximately $53 billion) through its ETF, has an powerful influence over the asset.

貝萊德透過其 ETF 擁有超過 55 萬枚比特幣（價值約 530 億美元），對該資產具有強大的影響力。

Its disclaimer — in line with the similar language from its June 2023 ETF filing — has led to questions about the potential for institutional pressure on Bitcoin's fundamental properties.

其免責聲明——與 2023 年 6 月 ETF 文件中的類似語言一致——引發了人們對比特幣基本屬性可能面臨的機構壓力的質疑。

Steve Patterson, the author of book Hijacking Bitcoin.

史蒂夫·帕特森（Steve Patterson），《劫持比特幣》一書的作者。

Technical Possibility vs Social Reality

技術可能性與社會現實

The technical reality is both simple and complex.

技術現實既簡單又複雜。

Whether Bitcoin’s supply cap can be changed or not depends on how one defines “Bitcoin,” Super Testnet, pseudonymous Bitcoin developer behind BitVM, told Cointelegraph.

BitVM 背後的化名比特幣開發者 Super Testnet 告訴 Cointelegraph，比特幣的供應上限是否可以改變取決於人們如何定義「比特幣」。

Yes, Bitcoin's supply cap could theoretically be changed through a hard fork.

是的，理論上比特幣的供應上限可以透過硬分叉來改變。

Citing Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin whitepaper, Super Testnet reckons that the resulting network would be "Bitcoin" in name only.

超級測試網引用中本聰的比特幣白皮書，認為最終的網路只是名義上的「比特幣」。

"The inflation cap is definitional to Bitcoin … eliminate that, and whatever you have isn't Bitcoin anymore. You might as well ask what it would take to turn Bitcoin into PayPal."

“通貨膨脹上限是比特幣的定義......消除它，無論你擁有什麼都不再是比特幣了。你不妨問一下如何才能將比特幣變成 PayPal。”

An uncapped supply version of “Bitcoin” wouldn’t be Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin.

「比特幣」的無上限供應版本不會是中本聰的比特幣。

This perspective highlights a crucial distinction: while code can be changed, consensus is another matter entirely.

這種觀點強調了一個關鍵的區別：雖然程式碼可以更改，但共識完全是另一回事。

This difference has played out before — during the 2015-2017 Blocksize War.

這種差異以前就曾出現過——在 2015-2017 年的區塊大小戰爭期間。

The Blocksize War was the battle between Big and Small Blockers centred around the debate over increasing the blocksize limit, which determines how many transactions can be processed in each block of the blockchain.

區塊大小戰爭是大區塊者和小區塊者之間的戰鬥，圍繞著增加區塊大小限制的爭論，區塊大小限制決定了區塊鏈的每個區塊可以處理多少交易。

Approximately 95% of Bitcoin miners supported increasing the block size limit. The proposal failed because node operators and investors refused to adopt the change.

大約 95% 的比特幣礦工支持增加區塊大小限制。該提案因節點營運商和投資者拒絕採用這項變更而失敗。

The Security Budget Conundrum

安全預算難題

The most pressing concern isn't the supply cap itself, but what happens as block rewards diminish.

最迫切的擔憂不是供應上限本身，而是當區塊獎勵減少時會發生什麼。

Bitcoin's security model relies on miners being economically incentivised to maintain the network.

比特幣的安全模型依賴經濟激勵礦工來維護網路。

As rewards halve every 210,000 blocks, the system faces a crucial question: Will transaction fees alone be sufficient to maintain network security?

隨著每 21 萬個區塊獎勵減半，系統面臨一個關鍵問題：僅交易費用足以維護網路安全嗎？

Some, like Bitcoin developer Nikita Zhavoronkov, argue that "large sustainable fees aren't happening, the 1 MB limit has to go."

比特幣開發商 Nikita Zhavoronkov 等一些人認為，“大規模的可持續費用不會發生，1 MB 的限制必須取消。”

Others, like Casa's CTO Jameson Lopp, view the future security budget as "Schrödinger's cat" — operating under philosophical, not provable, assumptions.

其他人，例如 Casa 的首席技術官詹姆森·洛普 (Jameson Lopp)，將未來的安全預算視為“薛定諤的貓”——在哲學的、無法證明的假設下運作。

Are we going to see another Blocksize war in the future?

未來我們會看到另一場區塊大小戰爭嗎？

Buy Once, Earn Daily Bitcoin Forever

購買一次，永久每日賺取比特幣

Infinity Hash brings the best aspects of cloud and colocation mining into a transparent and reliable system that provides long-term cash flow.

Infinity Hash 將雲端和託管挖礦的最佳方面帶入透明可靠的系統中，提供長期現金流。

Life-long contracts via Infinity Hash Shares

透過 Infinity Hash Shares 簽訂終身合約

Daily payouts in Bitcoin and other coins

每日支付比特幣和其他硬幣

A fully transparent community project

完全透明的社區項目

The Shrinking Supply Reality

供應萎縮的現實

While we debate the sanctity of the 21 million cap, research suggests the effective supply might be significantly lower.

雖然我們爭論 2,100 萬上限的神聖性，但研究表明有效供應量可能要低得多。

Analysts David Puell and James Check in their research report Cointime Economics estimate between 3.89 and 4.87 million coins could be considered permanently lost, including Satoshi's untouched Bitcoin stash and the zombie coins.

分析師 David Puell 和 James Check 在他們的研究報告 Cointime Economics 中估計，有 389 到 487 萬枚比特幣可能被視為永久丟失，包括中本聰未觸及的比特幣儲備和殭屍幣。

Quantifying the number of lost coins can be ambiguous, but if we take the lower base of the estimate it is still 3.89 million Bitcoin lost

量化失去的比特幣數量可能不明確，但如果我們採用較低的估計基數，則失去的比特幣數量仍然是 389 萬枚