美國核心通膨（CPI）意外下降後比特幣價格上漲

在美國公佈 12 月新的通膨數據後，比特幣價格出現上漲。這齣乎意料的...

The Bitcoin price showed an upward movement after the publication of new inflation figures for the month of December in the US. This unexpected drop in core inflation brought optimism to the markets and affected not only cryptocurrencies but also traditional financial markets.

在美國公佈 12 月新的通膨數據後，比特幣價格出現上漲。核心通膨的意外下降給市場帶來了樂觀情緒，不僅影響了加密貨幣，也影響了傳統金融市場。

According to the latest facts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core inflation, which excludes volatile prices such as food and energy, rose just 0.2% in December. This was down from the 0.3% increase in November and marks the first decline in the annual core inflation rate since July. On an annual basis, core inflation came in at 3.2%, while analysts had expected a stable 3.3%. This means that core inflation has now been at a high of 3.3% for four months before finally starting to fall.

根據美國勞工統計局的最新數據，排除食品和能源等波動性價格的核心通膨，12 月僅上漲 0.2%。這低於 11 月 0.3% 的增幅，標誌著年度核心通膨率自 7 月以來首次下降。以年度計算，核心通膨率為 3.2%，而分析師先前預期穩定為 3.3%。這意味著核心通膨率在最終開始下降之前已經連續四個月處於 3.3% 的高點。

Although the overall consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in December — slightly above analysts’ expectations — the annual increase remained at 2.9%, as forecast. This was an increase compared to the 2.7% measured in November. Nevertheless, the unexpected drop in core inflation caused a positive reaction in financial markets.

儘管 12 月整體消費者物價指數 (CPI) 上漲 0.4%（略高於分析師預期），但全年漲幅仍如預測的 2.9%。與 11 月測得的 2.7% 相比有所增長。儘管如此，核心通膨的意外下降引起了金融市場的積極反應。

The markets immediately reacted to the news. Shortly after the announcement, the Bitcoin price rose by $1,500 to $98,500. It has now risen further and stands at $99,146 at the time of writing, an increase of 3.4% within 24 hours. With this, Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a range just below the psychological barrier of $100,000. Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in December, Bitcoin has struggled to break through this level. His ‘hawkish’ stance on monetary policy and stronger-than-expected economic data have significantly dampened expectations for further rate cuts.

市場立即對此消息做出反應。消息公佈後不久，比特幣價格上漲 1,500 美元，至 98,500 美元。現在進一步上漲，截至撰寫本文時達到 99,146 美元，24 小時內上漲 3.4%。由此，比特幣繼續在略低於 10 萬美元心理關卡的區間內盤整。自從聯準會主席鮑威爾去年 12 月發表評論以來，比特幣一直難以突破這一水平。他對貨幣政策的「鷹派」立場和強於預期的經濟數據大大削弱了進一步降息的預期。

Not only the crypto market responded positively. U.S. stock futures rose about 0.5%, while Treasury yields fell. For example, the 10-year yield fell by 11 basis points to just under 4.7%. The value of the US dollar also saw a sharp decline.

不僅加密貨幣市場做出了積極反應。美國股指期貨上漲約0.5%，而公債殖利率下跌。例如，10年期公債殖利率下跌11個基點至略低於4.7%。美元的價值也出現了大幅下跌。

Core inflation remains a key focus for Federal Reserve policymakers. Despite the decline in December, the costs of housing, insurance and medical care remain stubbornly high. In addition, used car prices have shown a strong increase for the third month in a row, with an increase of 1.2% in December after a 2% increase in November. These price increases highlight that inflationary pressures have not yet completely disappeared.

核心通膨仍然是聯準會政策制定者關注的重點。儘管12月份有所下降，但住房、保險和醫療費用仍居高不下。此外，二手車價格連續第三個月強勁上漲，繼11月上漲2%後，12月上漲1.2%。這些價格上漲凸顯通膨壓力尚未完全消失。

Seasonal factors, such as higher fuel costs and continued food price increases, have further increased headline inflation rates. Still, the drop in core inflation offers some relief for investors and policymakers, who hope inflation will move closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

燃料成本上漲和食品價格持續上漲等季節性因素進一步提高了整體通膨率。儘管如此，核心通膨率的下降讓投資人和政策制定者鬆了一口氣，他們希望通膨率能更接近聯準會2%的目標。

In addition to economic data, the political situation in the United States plays a role in the inflation outlook. With Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration as president, some economists predict that his proposed policies, such as high import tariffs, corporate tax cuts and immigration restrictions, could create inflationary pressures. These measures could pose challenges for the central bank in determining future interest rates.

除了經濟數據外，美國的政治局勢也對通膨前景產生影響。隨著唐納德·川普即將就任總統，一些經濟學家預測，他提出的高進口關稅、企業減稅和移民限制等政策可能會造成通膨壓力。這些措施可能會為央行確定未來利率帶來挑戰。

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have shown price movements throughout January that are closely linked to macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations. The Bitcoin price has mainly traded between 10% and 15% below record levels as the market reacted to economic data and Federal Reserve policy.

比特幣等加密貨幣一月份的價格走勢與宏觀經濟數據和貨幣政策預期密切相關。隨著市場對經濟數據和聯準會政策的反應，比特幣價格主要下跌 10% 至 15%，低於歷史最高水準。

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin suffered a sharp drop below $90,000 but recovered to $97,000 after cooler-than-expected inflation data in the producer price index (PPI). This once again highlights the volatility of the crypto market and its sensitivity to economic indicators.

本週早些時候，比特幣大幅跌破 9 萬美元，但在生產者物價指數 (PPI) 通膨數據低於預期後恢復至 97,000 美元。這再次凸顯了加密貨幣市場的波動性及其對經濟指標的敏感度。

As investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate meeting, the Bitcoin price remains an interesting gauge of market sentiment. With the decline in core inflation, new speculation may arise about the possibility of rate cuts later this year, which could benefit risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. However, persistent uncertainty about inflation and monetary policy is likely to continue to weigh on markets for some time to come.

隨著投資者為聯準會下一次利率會議做準備，比特幣價格仍然是衡量市場情緒的有趣指標。隨著核心通膨的下降，可能會出現關於今年稍後降息可能性的新猜測，這可能有利於加密貨幣等風險資產。然而，通膨和貨幣政策的持續不確定性可能會在未來一段時間內繼續給市場帶來壓力。