高盛警告稱，比特幣價格在減半前處於危險平衡狀態

儘管有傳言稱中國可能會推高比特幣的價格，但由於地緣政治緊張局勢，該加密貨幣近幾週來已從 7 萬美元的歷史高點回落。隨著比特幣減半即將到來，新幣的供應量將減少，高盛分析師警告不要依賴歷史價格升值模式，理由是貨幣政策條件收緊，以及潛在的「謠言買入，訊息賣出」的情況。

Bitcoin Price Precariously Poised Amidst Imminent Halving, Goldman Sachs Warns of Price Caution

比特幣價格在即將減半的情況下岌岌可危，高盛警告價格謹慎

Bitcoin's recent ascent has met with a sharp reversal, tumbling from its all-time high of over $70,000 amidst escalating Middle East tensions and looming concerns regarding the upcoming halving event. Goldman Sachs analysts have issued a stark price warning, urging caution in extrapolating historical price movements in anticipation of the halving.

由於中東緊張局勢升級以及對即將到來的減半事件的擔憂，比特幣最近的上漲遭遇了急劇逆轉，從超過 7 萬美元的歷史高點暴跌。高盛分析師發出了嚴厲的價格警告，敦促在預測減半的情況下謹慎推斷歷史價格走勢。

Historically, Bitcoin's three previous halvings have triggered price appreciation, albeit with varying timeframes to reach all-time highs. However, Goldman warns against making direct comparisons to past cycles, given the current prevailing macro conditions. The Federal Reserve's ongoing battle against persistent inflation may hinder Bitcoin's post-halving surge.

從歷史上看，比特幣之前的三次減半都引發了價格上漲，儘管達到歷史高點的時間有所不同。然而，鑑於當前的宏觀狀況，高盛警告不要與過去的周期進行直接比較。聯準會持續對抗持續通膨的鬥爭可能會阻礙比特幣減半後的飆升。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the likelihood of prolonged higher interest rates until inflation aligns with the Fed's target of 2%. This stance casts a shadow over Bitcoin's prospects, as its price has traditionally responded positively to loose monetary policies.

聯準會主席鮑威爾強調，在通膨率達到聯準會 2% 的目標之前，利率可能會持續上升。這一立場為比特幣的前景蒙上了陰影，因為其價格傳統上對寬鬆的貨幣政策做出積極反應。

Technical indicators also paint a concerning picture, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. Bitcoin's failure to rebound from recent price drops suggests a market acclimating to current levels.

FxPro 高級市場分析師 Alex Kuptsikevich 表示，技術指標也描繪出令人擔憂的景象。比特幣未能從最近的價格下跌中反彈表明市場正在適應當前水平。

The imminent halving, scheduled within the next two days, will witness a reduction in the bitcoin block reward for miners from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin. This will effectively halve the daily supply of new bitcoins entering the market, from approximately 900 to 450.

計劃在未來兩天內即將減半，礦工的比特幣區塊獎勵將從 6.25 比特幣減少到 3.125 比特幣。這將有效地將每天進入市場的新比特幣供應量減少一半，從大約 900 枚減少到 450 枚。

Despite the historical trend of price appreciation following halvings, Bitcoin has notably broken with tradition by surging ahead of this halving, unlike its behavior prior to the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving events.

儘管歷史上有減半後價格上漲的趨勢，但與 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年減半事件之前的行為不同，比特幣在減半之前飆升，明顯打破了傳統。

The current halving coincides with the recent debut of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wall Street, boosting demand for Bitcoin as these funds acquire billions of dollars in the cryptocurrency.

目前的減半恰逢現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）最近在華爾街首次亮相，隨著這些基金收購了數十億美元的加密貨幣，提振了對比特幣的需求。

Goldman Sachs analysts caution that the halving's impact on Bitcoin's medium-term outlook may be less significant than the prevailing supply-demand dynamics, driven by the continued demand for bitcoin ETFs and the self-reflexive nature of crypto markets.

高盛分析師警告稱，在比特幣 ETF 的持續需求和加密市場的自我反思性質的推動下，減半對比特幣中期前景的影響可能不如當前的供需動態那麼顯著。