高盛警告称，比特币价格在减半前处于危险平衡状态

尽管有传言称中国可能会推高比特币的价格，但由于地缘政治紧张局势，该加密货币近几周来已从 7​​0,000 美元的历史高位回落。随着比特币减半即将到来，新币的供应量将减少，高盛分析师警告不要依赖历史价格升值模式，理由是货币政策条件收紧，以及潜在的“谣言买入，消息卖出”的情况。

Bitcoin Price Precariously Poised Amidst Imminent Halving, Goldman Sachs Warns of Price Caution

比特币价格在即将减半的情况下岌岌可危，高盛警告价格谨慎

Bitcoin's recent ascent has met with a sharp reversal, tumbling from its all-time high of over $70,000 amidst escalating Middle East tensions and looming concerns regarding the upcoming halving event. Goldman Sachs analysts have issued a stark price warning, urging caution in extrapolating historical price movements in anticipation of the halving.

由于中东紧张局势升级以及对即将到来的减半事件的担忧，比特币最近的上涨遭遇了急剧逆转，从超过 70,000 美元的历史高点暴跌。高盛分析师发出了严厉的价格警告，敦促在预测减半的情况下谨慎推断历史价格走势。

Historically, Bitcoin's three previous halvings have triggered price appreciation, albeit with varying timeframes to reach all-time highs. However, Goldman warns against making direct comparisons to past cycles, given the current prevailing macro conditions. The Federal Reserve's ongoing battle against persistent inflation may hinder Bitcoin's post-halving surge.

从历史上看，比特币之前的三次减半都引发了价格上涨，尽管达到历史高点的时间有所不同。然而，鉴于当前的宏观状况，高盛警告不要与过去的周期进行直接比较。美联储持续对抗持续通胀的斗争可能会阻碍比特币减半后的飙升。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the likelihood of prolonged higher interest rates until inflation aligns with the Fed's target of 2%. This stance casts a shadow over Bitcoin's prospects, as its price has traditionally responded positively to loose monetary policies.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调，在通胀率达到美联储 2% 的目标之前，利率可能会持续上升。这一立场给比特币的前景蒙上了阴影，因为其价格传统上对宽松的货币政策做出积极反应。

Technical indicators also paint a concerning picture, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. Bitcoin's failure to rebound from recent price drops suggests a market acclimating to current levels.

FxPro 高级市场分析师 Alex Kuptsikevich 表示，技术指标也描绘出令人担忧的景象。比特币未能从最近的价格下跌中反弹表明市场正在适应当前水平。

The imminent halving, scheduled within the next two days, will witness a reduction in the bitcoin block reward for miners from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin. This will effectively halve the daily supply of new bitcoins entering the market, from approximately 900 to 450.

计划在未来两天内即将减半，矿工的比特币区块奖励将从 6.25 比特币减少到 3.125 比特币。这将有效地将每天进入市场的新比特币供应量减少一半，从大约 900 枚减少到 450 枚。

Despite the historical trend of price appreciation following halvings, Bitcoin has notably broken with tradition by surging ahead of this halving, unlike its behavior prior to the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving events.

尽管历史上有减半后价格上涨的趋势，但与 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年减半事件之前的行为不同，比特币在减半之前飙升，明显打破了传统。

The current halving coincides with the recent debut of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wall Street, boosting demand for Bitcoin as these funds acquire billions of dollars in the cryptocurrency.

目前的减半恰逢现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）最近在华尔街首次亮相，随着这些基金收购了数十亿美元的加密货币，提振了对比特币的需求。

Goldman Sachs analysts caution that the halving's impact on Bitcoin's medium-term outlook may be less significant than the prevailing supply-demand dynamics, driven by the continued demand for bitcoin ETFs and the self-reflexive nature of crypto markets.

高盛分析师警告称，在比特币 ETF 的持续需求和加密市场的自我反思性质的推动下，减半对比特币中期前景的影响可能不如当前的供需动态那么显着。